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Post by esstan2001 on Jun 9, 2016 18:23:43 GMT -5
At the pre-ASM dinner, Hillsave pointed out that it is likely the June 9th NASDAQ SI report will be the one that reflects whether Matt P. was indeed able to place the 50M unit offering in 2-3 strong hands, or if the associated 50M shares end up being split off and fed out to covering shorties. I think 6PM is the data release? Should be interesting... The problem is that they were not Matt P's to place, they Renshaw's. If Matt had the investors he could have placed them directly and saved the fees ($2.5M?) they paid Renshaw. It's not clear they would show in the SI if the holdings were simply flipped. At a reported 86M-ish SI, I'd have to think that some amount of those shares did find their way to covering; and I agree that based on the report, it seems unclear as to what amount that may have been. If taken at face value, it could be 20% were flipped and the balance may still be held by strong hands. If so, that ain't too bad. Of course we will never really know.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jun 9, 2016 14:13:29 GMT -5
I would think 97M shares shorted still provides plenty of opportunity for a squeeze. Not clear to me though that will happen, it appears that an orderly exit of the smart shorts has already started. Can only hope it gets a little less orderly. One hand washes the other. The investors that just bought the shares are offloading them and the shorts are picking them up. The investors want them off their books but not so fast that the price drops materially, and the shorts are buying but not so fast that they push the price up. At the pre-ASM dinner, Hillsave pointed out that it is likely the June 9th NASDAQ SI report will be the one that reflects whether Matt P. was indeed able to place the 50M unit offering in 2-3 strong hands, or if the associated 50M shares end up being split off and fed out to covering shorties. I think 6PM is the data release? Should be interesting...
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Post by esstan2001 on May 27, 2016 10:22:03 GMT -5
We keep hoping against hopes that a positive news event will break the manipulation cycle of the MM responsible for the stocks action. The comments from Matt over the last year of positive news, always around the corner has yet to happen. I just remember that Matt along with "hacking" Hakan were a significant part of sitting idle while Sanofi did its best to bankrupt Mannkind. Never a pep or an innuendo that the ship was heading for the rocks.
So what we have now is dilution of the stock with another hope that this time is the final time that the clouds will lighten and shareholder monies will be treated with respect.
Matt certainly isn't suffering while our charade continues. I noticed that Matt has "inherited" Al's bodyguard/driver. Curious if a private jet goes along.
Far under, I don't have diabetes, but my mistake was believing the good the product would do for those who do suffer. Als, unfortunately as frustrating as it has been, we are where we are, mostly no thanks to Sanofi, but yes management has played a part, and sure, they are not perfect. Do watch the video of the 2016 annual shareholder meeting from 20 min. on; everything is now coming back under MNKD control. vimeo.com/167332167 We have an energetic, sharp new COO leading the relaunch effort and they have a (apparently better, albeit smaller scale) plan in place. Now it will take time, but by the Q3/Q4 transition and moving forward, I think we will get the clarity on whether we are part of something that will be successful. Hang in there and stay tuned- IMO at this point, not much else to do.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 25, 2016 7:03:43 GMT -5
kc: "The deal might be done and nobody knows it until it happens. We just never know with MannKind. There is a lot of good Karma going into ADA. We are on a need to know basis and we don't need to know yet. because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. We will see what we see soon." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz49fVqvgqzOK Rumsfeld...
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Post by esstan2001 on May 23, 2016 13:27:32 GMT -5
In the typical mystery of MannKind they now are listed on the May 23rd ADA convention booth list but without a booth assignment yet....... I really like this as it is another way to have that unknown experience that all of us enjoy with MannKind. Perhaps it will be in another companies booth? or perhaps in a good location. This time I will enjoy where ever the booth position is as I know that we have a Great Team from MannKind headed to New Orleans. Not only the SR management but several of the engineers that I had met last week.
Wasn't there some comment regarding switching to another, bigger ADA booth during the ASM, or am I having delusional fantasies...
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Post by esstan2001 on May 22, 2016 8:49:26 GMT -5
As a benchmark, look at the Sanofi deal which was thought to be a very sweet deal at the time. That yielded $150 million for WORLDWIDE rights but imposed 35% of the launch costs on MNKD. Anything now would be less attractive than Sanofi. The problem with thinking about an international deal is that a deal that encompasses ex-US in total is not going to happen. Pharmas are global businesses for the most part, the regional players that were once common had been swallowed up by the end of the 1990's and what is left is truly niche players that have a presence in only a handful of countries, and none of them very interesting countries from a marketing standpoint. The smaller the region and the less attractive the pricing, the smaller the payment if any payment at all can be extracted. The regional / local players are not deep pocketed companies like the multinationals and won't write big checks simply because they don't have the money. Once you get past the big pharmas and big generic companies, sales of more than a few hundred million is a big number. There are biotechs that do better, but insulin is a pharma product that would be a very poor fit with biotech. So the better question to ask is what would a deal for Country X or Y mean, since that is what you are really talking about. Once the question is focused you can think about reimbursement rates, who funds the healthcare system, government practices, and so on. Those factors are all over the place, even in a region you might think of as a single place (like Europe). Compare the healthcare systems in a country like Spain, where pricing is very poor and vendors wait up to 18 months before paying, with that of Germany where pricing is strong and wholesalers pay their bills on the 20th day after the invoice date without exception. The only thing the EU markets have in common is a single drug regulator that can approve a product. Take it the next step and compare practices across widely dispersed geographies, say those in China versus Brazil, and you will rapidly understand why it takes a large multinational to manage the level of complexity. Quit thinking overseas deal (singular) and start thinking overseas deals (plural). Anybody large enough to take on marketing of Afrezza in every international market will want the US as well and I think that ship has sailed. The question is how many international relationships can MNKD handle given that they have relatively thin management capabilities, because each relationship will pose challenges that need to be managed. The danger is taking on too many, not too few. In your opinion, is it plausible by year's end to execute a couple of deals- each with 15-30M upfront, and high single to low teens royalty on revs? I keep thinking Israel, and another middle eastern country...
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Post by esstan2001 on May 20, 2016 9:12:35 GMT -5
Afrezza needs patient demand for the walls to come tumbling down. We need to hear about pricing and insurance.
Multiple questioners conveyed this need for patient driven demand to Mike. He stood his ground, 'not until the docs are educated in the titration and use' so as to not allow bad experience / high dropouts. He also indicated he is actively working the insurance coverage / pricing issues - he has dealt with the players (PBM's) before and knows this gig well.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 20, 2016 8:20:28 GMT -5
Another Tweet today: Mike Castagna Mike Castagna – @castagna2011 A Team is in place! Thank you to everyone who accepted offers this week. One last opening let's see who the lucky person will be! #winning! Someone on YMB said that Mike had tweeted that there were 5000 applicants for 50 jobs. I went to find that tweet but it wasn't there. It would not surprise me if they did have that kind of response. The sales team is hired and I am sure the advertising theme is done or near done. Exciting times. I am apprehensive, the plan seems to be the same plan sanofi had, get the physicians on board.
Peppy, The difference is that Sanofi did not do anything. And if they did, in terms of focus on target, they had maybe 200 reps dedicated to covering 50,000 PCP's; Mike is targeting 50-70 reps to 5000-7000 Endo's by my recollection. MNKD is staffed 1 to 100; Sanofi was staffed 1 to 250. Mike is also actively working the PBM's, spirometry, and drop out issues (titration, copays, etc). Sanofi apparently was not. Did you not make it to the meeting?
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Post by esstan2001 on May 19, 2016 17:04:21 GMT -5
Maybe i missed it here but saw on YMB that Matt said the Valencia office is no longer for sale? Did anyone in attendance catch that exchange as well? they are not actively pushing it right now for the reasons posted prior.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 19, 2016 17:02:41 GMT -5
I wonder if some of the very clever sleuths on this board might be able to propose some candidates for the identity & validity of the guy making the investment offer. There have to be a limited number of people who have served with Al on the BoD of aerospace firms in the last 10 years. And it should not be hard to see what they are up to. I wonder if they are on linked in? I fully expect a board member to soon ID this person as he has in his possession the business card of the guy making the offer. Sadly, if I was thinking a little faster I might have looked down at his name tag...
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Post by esstan2001 on May 19, 2016 16:35:10 GMT -5
It was nice to put some names & faces to the avatars today; great to meet kc, patten, Rick H. & Diane, 'me', and to see OOG, Hillard, and Liane again.
Overall, it was a positive meeting. It is apparent Mannkind has a marketing / sales plan, has put into place the resources, and I left at least believing we have a reasonable shot at success with Mike & his team locked and loaded.
The scripts in July will tell.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 19, 2016 15:57:57 GMT -5
- Q&A someone brought up an interesting suggestion Mannkind should use Pfizer Insulin to make Afrezza available outside the U.S. in 3rd world countries with the help of the Gates Foundation, not so much to make money, but to get Afrezza used globally to demonstrate its paradigm changing benefits. that someone was our very own KC from guess where... Kansas City.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 19, 2016 15:55:37 GMT -5
As I recall at last years ASM, Al Mann spoke about a cheap spirometer that could easily be manufactured and meet the FDA's requirements. That's correct. So the new guy Mike showed a nice $350 unit that they will promote via nurse practitioners, website, etc. and have a sample (audience shareholder suggested 10-15 for touchy-feely) laying around at the ADA booth.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 19, 2016 15:50:52 GMT -5
How many people were at the meeting? Several dozen? Hundreds? I estimate 250ish
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Post by esstan2001 on May 13, 2016 12:52:26 GMT -5
1. KC 2. Rick H. 3. OOG - OtherOttawaGuy 4. esstan2001 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
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