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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 26, 2015 9:32:32 GMT -5
Harryx1 posted on Stocktwits the short lending rate increase to 48% Up 20% overnight? Of course, all Goldman needs to do is flip a switch. Yesterday IB was showing ~38% Fido still showing 18% payout..(was 16.5% last week) if they are consistent, that implies they are now charging shorts in the high twenties.
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 26, 2015 9:05:03 GMT -5
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 19, 2015 13:43:23 GMT -5
With the pediatric clinical trial to begin in September, one would think a 2 unit cartridge is needed. Expect it to be announced soon. Mannkind can produce these 2 unit cartridges in trial quantities easily in a small batch lab without interrupting the main 3 lines. 'Soon" in my estimation would really be after trial completion, sometime next year at the earliest; likely after pediatric approval.
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 19, 2015 9:38:56 GMT -5
"Well said. Sanofi can walk away from this and not even sneeze. They didn't sink billions into it like pfizer did (yet) and pfizer pulled the plug." There is one important difference. Afrezza is an important advance in diabetes therapy, Exubera was not, and years from now it will be (IMO) the most widely used meal time insulin therapy. So if SNY abandons Afrezza, and MNKD goes bankrupt, the technology will be bought and the drug will then compete against SNY. Pfizer knew that Exubera was a bust, and no one was interested in picking up the ball. Not only did Pfizer know, Sanofi knew Exubera was a bust before it went to market and sold it's rights to Pfizer. Their actions demonstrate they are smarter; I personally can only conceive that they are very committed and have a long game in play for Afrezza.
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 5, 2015 14:47:23 GMT -5
What happened to the Tough guy Trader post with the blather about him eating people like us for lunch... it vanished- I was just about to have some fun with it!
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 4, 2015 16:05:03 GMT -5
I tried to add the following 1st comment below the article but was asked to login to Facebook to post, and I do not have a FB acct. Can someone (with said acct) do me a favor, and copy / paste this in for me (and feel free to improve) THANKS !!! There are real benefits to this drug, Afrezza that... dosing and are designed to demonstrate superiority, to convince the skeptical, conservative slow to adapt docs. I posted your comment for you. Thanks much sla :-)
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 4, 2015 15:14:36 GMT -5
I tried to add the following 1st comment below the article but was asked to login to Facebook to post, and I do not have a FB acct. Can someone (with said acct) do me a favor, and copy / paste this in for me (and feel free to improve) THANKS !!! There are real benefits to this drug, Afrezza that have not been covered in this article. The PK profile essentially mimics that of the human pancreas, quelling the excursions in blood glucose levels to about half of what can be obtained by optimally timed and dosed injectable RAA's, and it clears the system fully in about 2 hrs, mitigating the risk of insulin stacking & hypos. Expect to NOT burn out your body's cells once on Afrezza, along with reduced possibility of diabetic nerve pain, eye problems, and the myriad of complications associated with the damage brought on by these glucose excursions. And check social media and diabetes site blogs for (near unanimous) ecstatic users... this will likely become the new paradigm in treatment once additional studies are run that allow proper dosing and are designed to demonstrate superiority, to convince the skeptical, conservative slow to adapt docs.
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 4, 2015 14:44:15 GMT -5
this would be awesome if it tuns out to be the case.
Once again Harry, great sleuthing.
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 4, 2015 14:43:22 GMT -5
OTHER COMPANY DEVELOPMENTS ? VALENCIA, Calif., Aug. 4, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq:MNKD) will release its 2015 second quarter financial results on Monday, August 10, 2015 and its management will host a conference call to discuss the second quarter financial results and other Company developments at 9:00 AM (Eastern Time) on August 10, 2015. Ratchet your expectation down to 'we re-tiled the men's bathroom on the 2nd floor'
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 14, 2015 6:49:54 GMT -5
I don't have any specific sell points, but I can say this much: on my ride up with GMCR, I got to enjoy about 3 short squeezes, and each time I sold some on general principles. While I ended up doing well, if I'd just held on that first time or two instead of lightening up to "lock in profits", right now I wouldn't even care what MNKD was going to do because I'd already have been filthy rich. There's a lesson in there somewhere... that "Greed is Good" ?? :-)
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 8, 2015 17:38:47 GMT -5
Although mentioning the study of inhaled insulin to improve blood vessels and brain function, too bad this Time article did not call Afrezza by name.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 8, 2015 15:04:01 GMT -5
I'd bet that they had a clue on the insurance landscape. They also announced a soft launch. It is more likely than not IMO that they intentionally priced a bit higher to both give them some negotiation room, and fully knowing that there will be limited initial patient demand corresponding to limited patient / Dr. awareness, keep the demand more closely matched to the limited nascent ability to supply. More preferential pricing at the getgo is NOT going to markedly impact demand before physician training or consumer DTC- does not make sense; I would think that they would not want demand to outstrip supply even if they could generate the patient demand through a lower price and more ins coverage. Since we're not talking face to face it would be easy to take my response as aggressive. >>>Naaaa, not taken that way- it's all good, no worries mate :-) However, it's not. In the context of discussing this subject, think of having a beer (or soda) hanging out in my back yard while enjoying some good food! Having said that, what you're suggesting leans toward SNY planning for failure?? That is, they had a clue about cost but priced it higher so they could reduce it later? >>> I'm approaching this from SNY knowing Physician acceptance would gate script counts, leave extra margin in the low volume price and have something to offer when negotiating their place on formularies, AND keep in mind ultimately superiority would provide some leverage; but why fight to raise vs lower the price less... (keep reading pls, I know the theory of negotiations and how it works). We're not buying something here on ebay or responding to a newspaper ad to buy a couch..... My overall point on negotiations is this - If SNY knew they had to price it at or lower than existing treatments to gain tier 2 status, I don't see the negotiation part of that equation - there is no negotiation. >>>From what I gather, it appears virtually NO drug comes out of the gate with better than tier 3, Ins Co.s wait, observe, then at 6-9 months the game begins (SNY vs INS Cos) Either they lower the price or it sits in tier 3 status regardless of how well it works. Same happened to advair in the last year or two (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/30/payor-trouble-for-advair-glaxosmithkline-drugs-in.aspx) - amazing drug, works really well for most, hardly any side affects, and blows away the competition. But when glaxo continued to raise their price many large insurance companies reduced their tier status or simply removed it. >>>OK but maybe that is an example of them using superiority to justify as high a price as they could get away with...Advair replaces similar drugs delivered using similar methods- they are not in the shadow of Exubera, facing a training and adoption hurdle that SNY had to engineer a plan and solution for Glaxo had to "renegotiate" their price - meaning, lowered it. My thought process is driving at this - it's not a negotiation when they say "no" and remove your drug or reduce tier status. Either you reduce the price or go away. Kinda like what I do when I buy a car - I don't negotiate, I tell them what I'm willing to pay. Period. (and yes, I DO buy new cars and yes, this approach works - eventually). And, seriously, you're going back to the demand outstripping supply part? Lines 2 and 3 are ready to roll but aren't and line 1 isn't being maxed out at this time. As an investor I'd much rather be hearing about production challenges due to demand than pricing negotiations, tier 3 placement, and lack of exposure to our market (both patients and docs). I generally agree with what you put forward when you are negotiating among near direct apples vs better substitute apples... not apples vs oranges. I think the real issues here are time to train docs, removing prior auth and improving tier... I would think SNY would know what they are doing with respect to insurance companies, unless there are some egregious examples of how such a big pharma doesn't know how to do that well...
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 8, 2015 14:02:42 GMT -5
esstan2001... though they could have been way more aggressive in putting in place supply, so I don't think the pace of the roll out has to do with that. If the ideal roll out were being delayed by supply they would have long ago ordered more fill lines. IMHO when referring to supply, I really meant to include the entire chain (downstream of production)- meaning physicians willing to prescribe. Until they are made aware and trained, they effectively limit the supply to patients. I think SNY / MNKD only intended to produce (during rollout) at a rate matched along the same order as the actual script count growth; I also think they expected more early on, hence the Nov start to build a buffer (that has been sufficient to date and I hope becomes inadequate!) :-) and BTW, I totally agree with you
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 8, 2015 13:45:17 GMT -5
... I'm starting to believe that SNY, or, frankly ANYONE had no idea just how quickly and dramatically the insurance landscape is changing in the US in terms of what get covered and by how much and, more importantly - the "WHY". If SNY understood the importance of cost as much as it's appearing to be nowadays, I do believe they might have priced it lower than all other treatments to simply beat on price and get on Tier 2 formularies across the board. Profits would have to be made ala wall mart - pure volume! I'd bet that they had a clue on the insurance landscape. They also announced a soft launch. It is more likely than not IMO that they intentionally priced a bit higher to both give them some negotiation room, and fully knowing that there will be limited initial patient demand corresponding to limited patient / Dr. awareness, keep the demand more closely matched to the limited nascent ability to supply. More preferential pricing at the getgo is NOT going to markedly impact demand before physician training or consumer DTC- does not make sense; I would think that they would not want demand to outstrip supply even if they could generate the patient demand through a lower price and more ins coverage.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 8, 2015 9:35:20 GMT -5
...Most of them have accepted that they'll need shots the rest of their lives and don't seek out something better because they just think this is the way it is. Without someone telling them a better alternative is out there, they're unlikely to become aware of it. ... Cheers. In retrospect, I believe many here have concluded that SNY really needed to execute a slow roll intro- it would do no good to overwhelm the 'system' with patients clamoring at Dr's offices before they are on board, or before there was enough inventory stockpiled to address demand; getting Physicians on board to me is the long pull here, and it is this step that is seemingly being tackled at this moment. The telling of Afrezza to the patients is coming- SNY just has to get all the support infrastructure in place and solidified otherwise there is the potential for bad associations with this drug. Reputation is important to the brand.
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