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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 2, 2018 15:21:22 GMT -5
The slides are online under "Event resources" --> "MannKind Q2 2018 Presentation". Another screw up by MNKD? Well, they find a new way of messing up in every event :-) Nothing new other than Canada and Mexico in 2H this year. No mention of how they are raising money.. Did I miss something? So is that why the SP is falling? You have been around for a while but perhaps you missed this along the way, read it all the way through, think musical chairs and the music is still playing. It's when the music stops you won't be asking that question, you'll be sitting in a chair already with a seat to watch the mayhem counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock20Full.pdf
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 2, 2018 10:08:02 GMT -5
Kevin said something similar in an interview at ADA2015. I was looking for the interview but can't find it. The big market for Dexcom is of course the T2s. Medicare, if I remember correctly, limits CGM payments to "injected insulin" only. For those conspiracy theory deniers the word "injected" was intentionally put in the coverage. The big market for MNKD are the early T2s. Dr. Kendall needs to get the T2 standard updated. Medicare coverage will then follow for the CGMs and Dexcom can then introduce a cheaper CGM targeted at the afrezza users. Then again Google might enter the market in a big way and buys Dexcom. We will have to see. Dexcom are supply constrained at the moment - they are selling everything they can produce and still have demand they cannot meet. Dexcom want the T1 market, and the integrated CGM market. Medicare is a big deal because until recently if you were a T1 on Medicare a CGM was not covered. They are not after the T2 market and they explained why on their earnings call. They do not expect insurers to cover CGMs for T2 any time soon because they are cost prohibitive. Instead they expect insurers will cover a CGM for maybe a month a year to check if all is well. They will cover that market with the disposable Verily/Dexcom sensor at the end of 2020, into early 2021. Listen to the call, there was interesting stuff in it. Precisely my point in previous post in this thread and why Mike was excited when Libre came out and the price point advantage they have. Libre is covered, cost currently for me is $40/mo., it may not have the bells and whistles but they are not needed, the other benefits of Libre far outweigh relative to cost and ease of use for T2's. Libre/Afrezza combo is a no brainer whether marketed that way or just suggested by the physicians after seeing the numbers and testimonials that continue to come in. Reminds me of ol' blue eyes....Try, try, try to separate them: www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtS46Wfsxnw
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 1, 2018 16:17:36 GMT -5
Consider the attention that CGM's are getting, now from the investment side as well....real time management/TIR and non invasive monitoring, the area will continue to receive more and more attention. When I stated that the pharmacist said they (Abbott's Libre's) are flying off the shelves and they can't keep them in stock he wasn't kidding. Yesterday a client that had seen me check my BG a few weeks ago asked me who my endo was...when T2's see the Libre used in real time they get very excited, then when I show them Afrezza/dreamboat and explain how the two work in conjunction with the readings etc. their phones come out and they take notes.....I no longer worry about the scripts, they are coming we are only in the pre-game warm-ups...not even 1st inning yet, same as DXCM years ago.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 1, 2018 13:02:42 GMT -5
Short term bottom has been reached. Volume should be picking up shortly. No reason to believe a short term bottom has hit. First funding issue needs to be resolved. No reason to see volume surge until after Labor Day. Dennis, just curious are you a lone warrior/independent or part of the consortium/trading team, I have some good friends that trade in groups so was just curious. Thanks in advance -J
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2018 15:19:29 GMT -5
I doubt Tanner would be one of the term sheets. Tanner is a straight forward service contract like any other and is about formalizing distribution channels to off-shore buyers. You're absolutely right. Barnstormer may call them as he sees them, but his calls are always the most negative possible when it comes to MannKind. Lefty, I and others have had the fortunate experience of meeting Barnstormer who I can attest is sincere and a staunch long, he is calling it like he sees it from HIS perspective, quite understandably he is frustrated, it happens and in particular with this equity as most long time holders can empathize. The term sheets are/will be what they are and any efficiencies gained from a manufacturing standpoint are a plus...I'm not looking at those as much as thinking that scripts will continue to improve especially in Q4, now excuse me while I celebrate with an 80 minute hot stone with my better half, enjoy the rest of your weekends and get off the boards lol
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2018 13:08:55 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2018 12:16:00 GMT -5
Joey agree.....”posters with ulterior motives that are trying to "save the retailer investor's souls" etc. so noble of them, about as noble as a vulture. Their souls are all about the almighty $$” There are always different realities, like the people that thought Trump was going to win and the ones that thought he was gonna lose;-)
If you sell a stock you move on and buy another stock, then you’re on a different stock board...you don’t go back to the old stock board and try to talk people out of their position unless you went short the stock. There is plenty of evidence of the Longs that went short under Spencer’s comment section still talking about how the old longs are underwater... the bitterness is just amazing ,why are they so angry! I mean MOVE ON...get some resilience. That’s my first thought, but of course Joey is right they’re short the stock. There’s one guy on there that was long, or so he said at the Alcom. In fact he taped it for us! Now not so much, you should hear the things he says about us ..sad.. just really sad. I have to say he fooled me from the beginning which I don’t think very many people do:-) and those that "hedge" their bets either way, the previous Obama appointed FDA commissioner who was brought up on RICO charges along with her husband source: Wikipedia She is married to Peter Fitzhugh Brown, a computer scientist and artificial intelligence expert. Brown is the co-Chief Executive of Renaissance Technologies.[24] Renaissance Technologies was the top donor to President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign[25] and the third largest donor to Hillary Clinton,[26] giving $15.5 million and $16.5 million respectively
there's a little harsh reality to how the souls of the dark side work without moral compass, you buy both sides with either pocket Actually come to think of it I probably could of added this to that MNKD story thread just posted today, it would fit in with that one just as easily or should I say sadly
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2018 9:10:53 GMT -5
Even if you have the best performing airplane and the best pilot, if you run out of fuel you are going to crash. It doesn't matter how confident you are in the pilot. Uvi, the fuel has been running out for years yet somehow the plane continues to fly, maybe it's a glider and keeps catching the rising thermals....it's had everything and anything thrown at it to try to bring it down even a BP that bore a hole in the fuel tank then gave it a temporary patch with a little compensatory fuel, the slings and arrows from the dark side that continually short it whilst dilution gets absorbed, actually I'm starting to think it runs on fuel cell technology, or maybe Elon passed on some high tech self charging battery but I've been hearing for years now that the fuel only has a couple of months left in the tank. In fact I've heard it just about every week for years like clock work, you can set your watch to it just like a sarcastic jab from Baba ....usually on Friday afternoon or sometime on Saturday. Then there are our friends at MF that put this company in the same sentence as Agenus lol, coupled with trolling posters with ulterior motives that are trying to "save the retailer investor's souls" etc. so noble of them, about as noble as a vulture. Their souls are all about the almighty $$ lets not forget the now famous quote "there is no moral compass in investing", that one is the best reflection of what you are dealing with regarding excuses for human beings that speak out of both sides of their tongues and say they are for the veterans of this country etc. Perhaps, just not the diabetic ones . If it sounds personal well it is for me and now many others as I see them as trying to take down the company that makes the medication that improves my quality of life, the investment part I could really give two poops about, I don't count on it as much as others might but the product is a whole different matter and if the plane does eventually run out of fuel I sure hope the cargo gets saved and the plane is able to safely land as it runs out
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2018 7:45:13 GMT -5
I had a little fun reality yesterday, now I just need Dennis and friends to help me exercise those sold MNKD puts in that synthetic or they can expire worthless with the paired calls ITM, either works for me , Peppy (you'll be able to appreciate this) the SPX is looking very weak on this retest of the previous highs, I faded into the well publicized GDP report, will continue to do so and add to this equity that has a nice lofty SI expecting the well publicized impending dilution of a stock with a product that is just flat out awesome, guess I am the epitome of the ultimate contrarian at this point and every time our friends chime in on the impending Castagna guidance miss "that the street will not like" as SO reminds us every week along with folks like Kastanes recent capitulation rant, I get visions of Cramer hitting that buy buy buy button...again just a little bit of fun in the dog days of the "hot air" of summer in the wonderful southern Nevada desert lol.: SLD 1,000 MNKD 1.5815 USD IBKRATS JUL 26 12:43:22 BOT 40 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 0.71 USD AMEX JUL 26 13:08:37 OptTrader SLD 20 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 1.45 USD AMEX JUL 27 09:39:45 SLD 19 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 1.45 USD AMEX JUL 27 09:39:45 SLD 1 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 1.45 USD AMEX JUL 27 09:39:45 SLD 20 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 1.61 USD ISE JUL 27 09:59:15 SLD 10 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 1.61 USD ISE JUL 27 09:59:15 SLD 10 SPY Aug03'18 281 PUT 1.61 USD ISE JUL 27 09:59:15 BOT 50 MNKD Sep 1.5 Synthetic 0.045 USD SMART JUL 27 10:48:43 BOT 11 MNKD Sep 1.5 Synthetic 0.05 USD SMART JUL 27 10:48:43 BOT 13 MNKD Sep 1.5 Synthetic 0.05 USD SMART JUL 27 10:48:43 BOT 26 MNKD Sep 1.5 Synthetic 0.04 USD SMART JUL 27 10:48:43
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 27, 2018 13:27:21 GMT -5
Kendall recently visited Duke and UNC ... and now we have the Tanner deal! Where did you see this? I would imagine he visited with Buse if that were the case.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 23, 2018 21:02:05 GMT -5
You can have one without the other but just not quite the same .....huge difference when I got my Libre after the first couple of months without it, just sayin, common sense folks, time to play ball and step to the plate....top of the 1st inning: www.startribune.com/abbott-labs-beats-earnings-estimates-hikes-guidance/488504051/Abbott Labs sees big upside for its FreeStyle Libre glucose monitor
Strong growth for its diabetes unit was key to driving second quarter earnings that exceeded expectations.
By Joe Carlson Star Tribune JULY 18, 2018 — 3:48PM TEXT SIZE 0 EMAIL PRINT MORE Abbott Laboratories expects that more than 1 million diabetics worldwide will be using its new FreeStyle Libre continuous glucose monitor (CGM) before the year is out, and the company is investing heavily to expand production capacity for the mass-market medical device. In an earnings call Wednesday to announce better than expected second quarter results, Abbott chief executive Miles White said the Illinois-based health care products company is on track to exceed its goal of at least $90 million in U.S. sales for the Libre in 2018. The device was approved in the U.S. last fall as the nation's first sensor that can continuously monitor adult blood sugar without requiring a blood sample for calibration. White said a key part of the device's appeal its "economically accessible" price for patients and insurers. In a market in which other devices for insulin-dependent patients can cost thousands of dollars, the FreeStyle Libre sensor carries a $36 price tag for 10 days' use in the U.S., meaning it costs about $1,300 a year at list prices. "It's got so much potential," White told the analysts on the call. "A lot of times, whether it is a pharmaceutical or a medical device, they can be expensive in the healthcare system ... because the numbers of patients may not be that great. And yet, there's a lot of diabetics in the world, including me." Abbott competes with Minnesota's Medtronic for diabetes-device sales, though the two companies have dissimilar offerings. Medtronic is heavily invested in sophisticated insulin pumps, but only recently entered the market for stand-alone CGMs; Abbott has a strong foothold in the burgeoning CGM market, while it is partnering with California's Bigfoot Biomedical to develop next-generation insulin-delivery devices that are still in clinical testing. The 34 percent quarterly organic growth in Abbott's $470 million diabetes care unit helped offset losses elsewhere in its medical device portfolio, particularly with the heart-rhythm devices that Abbott acquired last year when it bought Minnesota pacemaker maker St. Jude Medical, earnings figures released Wednesday show.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 22, 2018 11:43:54 GMT -5
Aged - I thought Dr. Kendall addressed this question "If compliance with Afrezza is supposed to be so great why was it so awful for STAT? If you are getting a third of a supervised group non-compliant on a trial lasting just four weeks that is bad" He said they didn't believe you could really second dose without getting hypos and they never second dosed at dinner with the fear of lows when sleeping. It sounded reasonable to me. Did he really say that? I would love to hear it because he must have gone further. For example the concern about a second dose at dinner is not very plausible because the last correction of the day is literally at bed time. They are all wearing CGMs so it's not like they don't know what is happening.I doubt that concerns about hypos are they problem, I believe the problem will turn out to be that they just forget to take the second dose because they are doing something else at the time. Either way when STAT is repeated on a large scale over a longer period they need to make sure that people stay in compliance because the single dose numbers under-performed RAA for TIR. I was not going to respond anymore in this thread on this subject but the above paradoxical statement took the cake so just had to ask and give my take on the why's and why not's: (par·a·dox·i·cal ˌperəˈdäksək(ə)l/Submit adjective seemingly absurd or self-contradictory. A paradox is a statement that, despite apparently sound reasoning from true premises, leads to an apparently self-contradictory or logically unacceptable conclusion. source: Wikipedia) WTF? On one hand you are saying they are all wearing CGM's so they absolutely know what is happening, and then go and say that even though they know what is happening they "forget" to take the second dose because they are pre-occupied with something else? ...... unless of course their numbers were doing well enough after the first dose that they weren't alarmed via either no alarm from their CGM of going above their target which of course would be a possible reason/cause they did as you suggest "forget", they were never "alarmed" in the first place. That would be more plausible as they said even the non-compliant numbers were better than the aspart arm. Remember the STAT was designed for T1 only, I would suspect that in general non compliance is light years worse in everyday life in the T2 population and with a Afrezza/CGM (either Libre or Dexcom) combination would improve compliance and in turn improve TIR along with A1c among T2's tremendously when they are educated properly on dosing and follow up dosing. As you have previously stated, T1's are use to the routine sticks out of necessity in the past a whole lot more than T2's that conveniently forget to test their BG levels and certainly opt for non-insulin method of treatment because they don't want to have to stick routinely. There is a reason my A1c dropped 2.9 pts. in a 2.5 mo. period (and subsequent reduction) after I started Afrezza, along with the benefits and superiority of the drug, simultaneously simply much better compliance. When a PWD actually sees the improvement daily in their numbers and feels that much better, it feeds on itself and becomes a self motivator and no brainer to easily stay in compliance especially with regards to T2's who had trouble with either staying compliant previously and or lack of success with previous meds in treating the disease and/or a combination of both. As mentioned previously, Kendall didn't leave LLY to join MNKD because he believed they had a product and technology that was inferior, quite the opposite and anyone that I know who was present at the ASM came away very pleased and optimistic that he joined the company because he sees the bright future with the superior benefits of the product and technology that are the backbone of this company. So bringing this back to original thread topic, I would imagine that Nate sees the same exact thing and thus calls it a strong buy at these levels.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 21, 2018 20:45:21 GMT -5
Did Nate talk about insurance issues and alternatives in his interview? I must of missed that part, perhaps one of the moderators should change the title of the thread to the boards opinion on insurance options. I'll just add that the compliance is much easier with no finger sticks and having a dreamboat with an ample daily supply of cartridges in your pocket...compared to the alternative of barbaric, obsolete, and unpredictable methods....ok carry on
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 21, 2018 12:40:36 GMT -5
Golf - Where we sit today is not ridiculous if you believe afrezza is following the same path as Exubera and will fail in the market. Based on current and past sales and money spent to date by the company its easy to make the case. Few, currently understand what afrezza really is and that is reflected in the current pps. Heck, most people think its another rapid acting analog but provides worse A1c. In fact, that's what the standard of care currently says. Additionally, MNKD over the last 6 years hasn't done a lot to help itself. MNKD needed to put afrezza in a position to immediately impact the standard of care once approved but they did not. They turned over the task to SNY who did nothing to move the ball. Until Dr. Kendall showed up nothing was done. Until Mike found the lost studies and had Dr. Kendall review them and Dr. Kendall joined the team there was never a focus and plan to get the standard of care updated. Aged asked what needs to be done. The initial target is updating the T1 section. The current recommendations consist of four bullets. The second bullet currently says "Most individuals with type 1 diabetes should use rapid-acting insulin analogs to reduce hypoglycemia risk." It needs to be updated to say Most T1s should use inhaled insulin to reduce hypoglycemia and allow improved A1c over rapid-acting insulin analog use. Those not able to use inhaled insulin should use rapid-acting insulin analogs to reduce hypoglycemia risk. With the STAT results applied to Affinity-1 Dr Kendall is now making the argument that afrezza can reduce A1c from 8.0 to 6.8 with no additional hypoglycemia. If he is succeeding in moving the ADA politicians the market will start getting the message in September but Dr. Kendall needs to deliver. He also needs to get some mention of inhaled insulin in the T2 section soon but to get it as Step2 may take 2 years. In the mean time nothing is stopping Mike from closing some deals and getting the word out. A couple of real deals will help the pps short term but just doing Trulicity sales of $2B with 50% margin assuming 200m outstanding shares gives you eps of 5. Using a 30x multiplier puts the pps at $150. We are not getting there until afrezza is in the standard. I saw somewhere yesterday Duke and UNC are now looking to do afrezza studies. I can only guess the ADA suggested that direction after ADA2018. Things are moving in the right direction but selling afrezza is all about the standard of care. Does anyone think metformin would get prescribed like candy unless it was step 1 in the standard? Its junk. What did Ralph DeFronzo say “The most waste in type 2 diabetes is to continuously put people on metformin and sulfonylureas (glyburide, glimepiride, etc.). These drugs have no protective effect on the beta cell, and by the time you figure out what you’re doing, there are no beta cells left to save.” – Dr. Ralph DeFronzo (University of Texas Health Science Center) diatribe.org/the-diatribe-foundation-and-tcoyd-11th-annual-forumsayhey24 if true (would love to see what you read if you can find it) then no one better with ties to both institutions then the head/chairman of the MNKD SAB board: uncdiabetes.org/dr-john-buse-md-phd/also goes right in line with your following statements: "so it will take at least one large trial to achieve the change. " "And, we have a CMO with a plan to change the standard and if he doesn't have all the studies he needs over time he will be able to get them." They don't call it the research triangle for nothing, plenty of medical research and education at UNC/DUKE hospitals and medical centers and Kendall has one of the leading peers in the space on board. He didn't ask Buse to chair the SAB without looking at the bigger picture IMO. Kendall has started to remind and embellish past research as well: Lancet publication showing the reduced incidence of hypoglycemia: www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140673610606320.pdfRead more: mnkd.proboards.com/post/153301/quote/10248?page=1#ixzz5LuWJ15iORead more: mnkd.proboards.com/post/153301/quote/10248?page=1#ixzz5LuVPjApC
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 17, 2018 13:02:13 GMT -5
I don't know why but it brings this to mind lol, dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/misdirection-in-goldman-sachss-housing-short/ .....Lloyd is heading out to pasture now (officially 10/1) of course, ohhh those Goldman pastures lol. I actually went to High School with a former partner who passed too early (clot thrown after knee replacement surgery should never have happened, one of the rare nice guys...he got drafted by the NY Jets as a kicker and then went on to a highly successful career at GS in their global commodities division. RIP RR
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