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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2018 10:57:47 GMT -5
There used to be a lot of conjecture on the board about a short squeeze. Could someone please educate me on the possibility of that happening in the near future? Is that what Michael K is talking about when he refers to the "Russian roulette players"? If an angel investor/white knight were to come in with funding and/or taking out DF's debt (simultaneously freeing up tied up assets, etc.) putting the financial status of the company on much more favorable and solid footing, it would definitely cause some fireworks, lets just put it that way. Many will say/have bet that is fairy tale thinking but you asked so figured I would give you that answer. "They" will also tell you that the short position is hedged so you would not see any effect from that, it's a zero sum game so whether or not that particular short position is in fact hedged, it's a zero sum game so it's short somewhere, that is why when it was at .13 it couldn't be unwound overnight IMO, that is why the DTC based on volume and shares owed is a factor even though some/many discount that share/volume mechanism. "They" = some of the faceless creatures/aliens you see pop up and bandied about from time to time whether here or other well know hangouts
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2018 10:20:40 GMT -5
Welcome to the board and thanks for your thoughts. I am more cynical than you however; as I perceive Big Pharma isn't just watching, I see them attacking by funding whatever and whoever can get in the way of bringing Afrezza to market. The use of seeking alplha and motley fool have always dedicated it's hit articles to coincide with premeditated short attacks most likely funded by big pharma. How often does a hit piece occur with the intensity that comes our way? Seem rational? Too, if the authors are utilizing information from this board, isn't it also likely that there are individuals here placed specifically to influence FUD? I do, DBC and Digger didn't disappear without being replaced by others who show up in tandem. Good products fail as a result of competition. Tesla would tell you the same thing regarding Edison. Good luck to you and to us. Really? If you were a hedge fund you would short before you publish the hit article not two hours afterwards. Why allow readers to get a jump on your devious plot? Absolutely true and have experienced same, was called the day before an article came out on a Chinese fertilizer company a few years back, was told that this particular trading group had someone that they paid to gain information legally (forensic accountant/financial analyst) and that a negative article was going to be published the next day in case I wanted to take a short position. Know all too well how it works, you cannot tell me they aren't coordinated and TD you are correct, the positions are taken well before they're published.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2018 10:01:57 GMT -5
Seeking Alpha is a cesspool of garbage & lies along with it's authors & whoever runs it. I tried several times to get an article posted on the instablog Monday and guess what, they denied every version I submitted. They definitely have an agenda and it's not in favor of longs. Mannkind: Afrezza Is Far From Worthless
They also know that their articles will show up on the front page of Google when searching for Afrezza. All negative stories filled with lies. Are you saying they don't allow Sasquatch's into the "brotherhood" You got a first hand experience of what I've been saying...." Selectively Allow", unfortunately this is what journalism has come to today in all mediums and why the term "fake news" has come to be known no matter which side of the fence you are on....PBS is the lone survivor .....Harry just know your efforts do not go unnoticed....keep on keeping on my friend!! This PWD appreciates what you do, that's my message to you, Thank you!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2018 13:53:47 GMT -5
Nothing like putting articles out after the move, it's akin to changing your price target to $5 when it's already $6
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2018 13:35:21 GMT -5
There is much better money to be made elsewhere until MNKD gets it all figured out. It won’t happen overnight. There will be plenty of buying opportunities. I remember folks saying the same thing when Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns failed, the minority that bought insurance on CDS were called fools when they were buying as it went against them (the big short), personally I had puts on Freddie Mac and Countrywide at the time, had I not been in the position at the time I doubt I would have had time to enter it when the poop hit the fan "overnight". So you could say that there is a 35M share hole that needs to be filled at some point, you are in the camp that says prove them wrong (as you stated with your belief of the manipulation) that's ok, the risk/reward currently is much more attractive to some that are willing to accept that risk, that's their choice as well. Do you believe you will enter a more/larger position and have an opportunity to do so if something positive does happen overnight? Is the herd waiting for the well advertised dilution to close some of that position, perhaps but they didn't do it the first go around when it was effectively .13. Why do you suppose that is? I get the great product but lousy stock argument, I also know that more times than not a great product eventually succeeds. When it's a shift against the norm it can take a while to break well established habits/walls etc. You are correct, the prior management was NEVER one in place to handle a transition from a manufacturing/technology company to a full fledged pharmaceutical entity. I am in the camp that the current team in place inherited an extreme financial challenge but at the same time has the knowledge of how to finally get the wind behind the sails. We're entitled to both arguments, again that's what makes a market isn't it? Bottomline, I have no issue whatsoever with shorts that state their thesis and why (TD a good example), but there are individuals that have other motives and have direct messaged board members with those motives and I have a huge problem with that type of underhandedness....and what others have already stated is correct, they most likely would never put their intentions on record so while understanding the OP's frustration regarding same it would be an act of futility to think it would change anything.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2018 19:51:13 GMT -5
“New debt is the only one of those that can get the amount of cash we need. Deerfield as collateral might work. But why didn’t they do it already?” I believe they have been counting on the sp being higher for some time now. I believe they thought insurance would improve faster with the label change, but that didn’t happen. Then they thought it would improve with the STAT results and ADA and that hasn’t happened yet. And I also believe they didn’t expect the stock to be manipulated so heavily, but that one shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. AND maybe, just maybe, MC has an ace up his sleeve. What manipulation? ) The company lowered guidance and they are running out of money. Manipulation was the run up to six last October. How much of this blog article ( seekingalpha.com/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack ) does not match up with what took place on Friday? I would call 11M shares in what has been an avg. summer volume of <1M sh/day somewhat of a blitzkrieg centered around all the other components in the referenced article....fits it to a "T", the run up to six last year was more of a "sampling" of what happens when there is a scramble for shares called on waves of failure to deliver and along with margin calls.....now if some got caught with their pants down (and I trust that some did from some of the reactions) so be it, if you're saying that it was manipulated by the company or a "house" that was getting ready to do a direct placement and knew it was ripe for a run-up well who's fault would that be, I call it shrewd planning....maybe it's getting ripe again who knows, what I do know is this is the most anticipated dilution event forecast that I can remember in the history of Mannkind, what do you suspect happens if those well publicized slim to none odds of something non-dilutive takes place or even better, if and when the widely anticipated dilution does take place and gets absorbed again?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2018 14:59:49 GMT -5
Joey, can’t agree more. Judging by the posts, there are many saints here who are just concerned about us clueless little longs. They have no positions in MNKD and they spend thousand of hours worrying about us being “hurt” by the “incompetent” management. By my count, 8 of 10 of the world’s most altruistic persons are actually active contributors of this board. They are right here. The other two I can think of are AF and SO. Or probably a few others on SA and MF. I wouldn't include AF in that lot, he is in another category, IMO the others don't have to constantly look over their shoulders everyday in life....I believe AF does, JMO
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2018 13:49:23 GMT -5
Mike replied: We can’t provide more clarity than yesterday [CC day]. We have been working on this for over a year and tried to be clear yesterday about dilution not being our primary/expected way forward. Matt said: Cash at the end of June was $26 million, cash burn during Q2 was $27 million. The math from there is pretty easy. There are things the company can do to delay the inevitable, like increasing accounts payable and limiting expenditures, but some items need to be paid with cash as they fall due (like payroll and employment taxes). While Mike likes to talk about non-dilutive financing sources, he is out of time to find one and the company will have to raise cash. There is no way around it. The ATM is a double-edged sword in that those shares hit the market the same day they are sold, and typically this creates a company initiated death spiral as the new shares hitting the bid reduce the price even more. Ditto obtaining a waiver on the Deerfield debt covenants since Deerfield has shown itself to be a very short term holder of the stock and possibly even shorting in anticipation of receiving stock. That too reduces the price, so it comes down to whether it is better to do a large PIPE and take all the pain at once, or dribble the shares out and risk death by a thousand cuts. Mike can say that he has no plans for bankruptcy, no management team ever does until they suddenly do, but I am not sure that is a responsible comment to make. The fact is that as of this 10Q, shareholder equity was a negative $207 million meaning the company meets one of the legal definitions for bankrupt in the State of Delaware (and has for years). So far the creditors have gone along with that but it only takes three disgruntled creditors owed an aggregate of $10K to put the company into bankruptcy court where the future course of action is not within management's control. Raising cash takes that risk off the table for a while. Place your bet accordingly. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/10304/mnkd-management-respond?page=3#ixzz5NKQhd81INot sure where all the other geniuses got their training or how many of them received their MBA from Wharton but judging from the posts I see I wonder how many graduated HS. I'll take Mike's resume, Mike has been in some decent circles as well. One of which actually circles around a prior believer in Afrezza. After Chris Viehbacher unexpectedly left SNY and we were saddled with Brandicourt, he was picked up by Ernesto Bertarelli and placed in charge of Gurnet Point Capital. Gurnet is primarily involved with funding and taking equity positions in Healthcare. Mike worked for Serono (Ernesto), Ernesto is an Italian version of Al Mann, philanthropist and dedicated to helping via healthcare and treating pandemic diseases. Viehbacher on the other hand would most likely love nothing more than to show SNY what a huge mistake they made by hiring Brandicourt. I am in the camp that this is a no brainer given the current SI for a hedge fund to come in and take an equity play for instantaneous gains along with setting the company up to realize it's potential success. The point here is Mike is not someone that just came off the ship, he has a qualified background and knows quite a few circles. Anything is possible and can come out from left field at any given time, stranger things have happened. One can debate whether or not Mike has made significant progress in just one year's time. Putting the current team in place is already evidence of what he is capable of, I wouldn't want to be betting against him even though it seems the easier course based on the situation. Just my thoughts, and for the record I have no knowledge of any direct interaction between Mike and Gurnet, it was just presented as an example as food for thought and to open some minds about alternative possibilities.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 4, 2018 17:25:05 GMT -5
Let me begin by saying that yesterday sucked. I have lived through many days just like that before with Mnkd stock. And every time, it was the pits. It is never easy watching a bear raid and watching the stock plummet. Did the Mnkd story suddenly change yesterday that caused the stock to drop. As far as I can tell, it hasn’t. Afrezza is life changing and MannKind needs money. Yep same story. Now, based on the premise of the hit pieces yesterday, the world was coming to an end and MannKind management just discovered that they were short funding. Give me a break. From the moment Mike Castagna volunteered to come over to MannKind, he knew that MannKind was in a dire cash crunch situation. It is why he has spoken about the recapitalization plan at every conference call since he took over as CEO. So the idea that he just figured that out yesterday from all of these hit pieces is ridiculous. Mike has a complete understanding of the current financial situation. The last thing he is going to allow to happen is for the company to run out of cash just as revenues for Afrezza are setting new records. Could the solution involve a painful dilution to see us through. The answer is yes. Look, I don’t like dilution any more than the next shareholder. But Mike has to do what he needs to do to keep the company moving forward. Some pointed to Mike mentioning in the Thursday meeting that he doesn’t see dilution as being the long term solution for the capital needs of the company. But it may indeed be needed in the short term. There is still the prospect of obtaining a partnership for TreT. But it is possible that with the current cash crunch, a possible partner may be lowballing an offer. Mike has to make a lot of critical decisions based on things we do not know about. Unfortunately, because none of us know, it provides fertile ground for FUD to be made up and spread. One thing I have learned over the years of owning Mnkd, the shorts are just as committed to their viewpoint as I am to my long view. Thus, it is an ugly war that is being played out. But I do trust that Mike understands the financial situation at MannKind far better than any of us and certainly more than the FUD mongers. Mike and his team are dedicated to making Afrezza and MannKind a success, and that is exactly what I think will happen in the long run. Depends on your perspective, yesterday did not suck and yes Mike has a complete understanding of the current financial situation along with the situation in the beautiful chart below I think Mike understands the situation as do many others looks like a "double top" (refills) is about to get broken through along with a steadily rising revenue stream
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2018 16:43:33 GMT -5
lojothehus Comments (1) |Following Your article is a Short's Dream, sort of reads like a diary to them, but I will tell you this and will not go back and forth over the science; will not talk about Exubera; will not talk about one person representing the world, but will say this; when a person is so concerned about another stranger's investment to the lengths that you guys are going to......it makes a person say hmmmmm.' I've seen bad bio-techs that cannot get an honorable mention let alone an array of articles and dedicated concerned people (shorts) working feverishly to extinguish this Afrezza oops I meant to say FIRE!!! I tried to comment on your posting but Seeking Alpha appears to not like my posts. I've had this happen to my last few attempts. I guess I'm banned.Imagine that, SA = Selectively Allows
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2018 14:32:19 GMT -5
Either a funding agreement and/or insider info from a bank MNKD dealing with whom has channels to these hit piece writers that write the hit pieces after they hear of the proposed funding need. Articles then act as a cover to their inside info. IMO if I was part of a pipe funding not released, there would be articles PUMPING the stock, not making hits on it, as they want retail to buy shares to fund the pipe.
If no pipe is announced, then action would say a hedge fund is looking to short the market cap looking for BK .Actually, I'm looking for the hedge fund that has the where with all to take the other side of that "crowded trade", I wish I had a nickel for every time the word dilution has been mentioned the past 30 days alone....this has to be the most widely anticipated dilution ever, I would not want to be on that side of the trade right now. Reminds me of all the "end of the eurozone" calls made if the British were to Brexit. Just sayin
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2018 14:19:27 GMT -5
lojothehus Comments (1) |Following Your article is a Short's Dream, sort of reads like a diary to them, but I will tell you this and will not go back and forth over the science; will not talk about Exubera; will not talk about one person representing the world, but will say this; when a person is so concerned about another stranger's investment to the lengths that you guys are going to......it makes a person say hmmmmm.' I've seen bad bio-techs that cannot get an honorable mention let alone an array of articles and dedicated concerned people (shorts) working feverishly to extinguish this Afrezza oops I meant to say FIRE!!! you should change your handle to logicinthehouse the best was the response I rec'd as follows: RisingSKEPTIC Comments (890) |+ Follow "I use one 180ct box/mo. (60/12u, 60/8u, 60/4u)..." Where did that come from? He told me SEVERAL TIMES over SEVERAL MONTHS that ALL he EVER used was 4U before each meal. In fact, he absolutely INSISTED that was the case!I guess maybe he FINALLY studied up on the subject and REALIZED how incredibly BOGUS his claims appeared to REAL diabetics.
The thing is, even 48U a day --16U per meal -- would be WOEFULLY inadequate to control glucose in a TRUE type 2 diabetic.
30 Jul 2018, 10:06 PM Reply0Like This one I had to memorialize for future reference, it was over the top desperation. I have no clue who this individual is let alone ever spoken with them...if I had they would be a bit more educated on dosing and what it takes to control glucose in a T2 diabetic, and that I do not take my units before each meal. Obviously this "one" is on the far left and hasn't come along with the others
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2018 13:44:18 GMT -5
It's textbook, note the section regarding the coordinated hit pieces, bashing, etc. = typical bear raid, they absolutely pray/need dilution. This is an easy strategic play for a fund that has the capital to make a quick fortune. I know this sounds counter-intuitive right now but the pressure is really on the short side if no dilution comes to pass, that and trying to force a BK are the only options and if you think with current volumes/days to cover ratio are not indicative of what's needed on the short thesis part you should relinquish your shares to them, that's what bear raids are all about. Like I said textbook read thoroughly it's like a play by play especially the last 3 days, the "desperate titles of the articles, the desperate nature of the posts, etc. : counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock20Full.pdfSay what you want but there is absolutely no way this stock is down 24% because of a SeekingAlpha article. LOL!!, that's the point, guess you're missing it
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2018 13:30:43 GMT -5
The hit pieces are out in force. It's textbook, note the section regarding the coordinated hit pieces, bashing, etc. = typical bear raid, they absolutely pray/need dilution. This is an easy strategic play for a fund that has the capital to make a quick fortune. I know this sounds counter-intuitive right now but the pressure is really on the short side if no dilution comes to pass, that and trying to force a BK are the only options and if you think with current volumes/days to cover ratio are not indicative of what's needed on the short thesis part you should relinquish your shares to them, that's what bear raids are all about. Like I said textbook read thoroughly it's like a play by play especially the last 3 days, the "desperate titles of the articles, the desperate nature of the posts, etc. : counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock20Full.pdf
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 2, 2018 15:46:58 GMT -5
You need to start a new thread to enlighten us?! You must have missed the memo also, so since i still have it handy (see all sections) especially the one mentioning around/surrounding news events : counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock20Full.pdf This could be placed in many thread topics actually, the SI one, the loan rate one, MNKD story, reality of the situation, etc. etc.... pick your choice it applies to many topics in many threads and categories with respect to this equity and company and board members, articles posted weekly via different publishers/authors/etc. it even mentions prior The Street connections ala AF. So you shouldn't be surprised whatsoever, this is the lower part of the iceberg in the article, what I fondly refer to as the "dark side" the part that lies beneath the surface of the water. When it melts/gets blown up, the scum will be laying on top of the surface Enjoy the call
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