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Post by saxcmann on Aug 16, 2016 7:19:46 GMT -5
Mike and Matt just bought shares! Maybe kdaddy should vent more often?! Lol
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 10, 2016 10:54:12 GMT -5
Good point. I agree it's an important psychological number. IF MNKD can pass SNY in Afrezza sales by the end of October, it will place a spotlight directly on Sanofi's poor performance regardless of reasons or excuses. Articles will immediately be written about the failure of Sanofi, the promise of MNKD and the resurgence of Afrezza. The news would go viral...and then Matt will call France saying, now I'm ready to discuss the final settlement terms...and oh, by the way, they're not what they were three months ago  Yes yes! Exactly my point. Also think about other big pharmas and what they'll think? Would they jump in and make an offer for mnkd then?...I would! 😊 |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 10, 2016 8:27:55 GMT -5
For the record, I'm also of the opinion we'll pass Sanofi's high water mark in the 600's per week before the end of October. This is based on a combination of both Mike C's excellent targeted sales strategy and the organic growth that comes from the success that's spreading within the social media of diabetics. Hey Kemp, thats my timeline as well. Psychologically 600 is important number. If we can get there before sanofi did, I think many doors will open up for MannKind. |
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Volume
Aug 9, 2016 9:22:13 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by saxcmann on Aug 9, 2016 9:22:13 GMT -5
Funny,just as we thought, great earnings call and pps drops. Yep sell off. Things turn up soon my guess... |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 8, 2016 21:23:08 GMT -5
Money should come in. I am looking for MNKD to be bought.
On another note, the label change may be huge. There is a dollar cost amount to be paid to the FDA for label change consideration.
Anyone (matt?) with any experience on how long between application for change and actual change of label? Is that a few months? Six months? A year? about 6 months. |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 8, 2016 17:21:58 GMT -5
I was talking with 2 friends at the gym yesterday. They are btw 40-50 years old. Both on the pump. Both on Facebook type 1 groups. Both never heard of afrezza. Both interested in trying afrezza. Both had recent doctor appts with no mention of afrezza. We need tv commercials and major promotion to get scripts up. I'm convinced! Did you refer them to your friend so they can get on samples and then an RX? They both know of my friend but he works in a different city. |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 8, 2016 17:14:04 GMT -5
I thought the call was the best one yet! Mike sounded great as usual. Loved part about applying for label change in September/October time frame. Also liked specifics with direct to consumer marketing strategy. Great call now watch the sp drop tomorrow! Lol
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 8, 2016 15:09:34 GMT -5
I was talking with 2 friends at the gym yesterday. They are btw 40-50 years old. Both on the pump. Both on Facebook type 1 groups. Both never heard of afrezza. Both interested in trying afrezza. Both had recent doctor appts with no mention of afrezza. We need tv commercials and major promotion to get scripts up. I'm convinced!
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 7, 2016 10:11:52 GMT -5
Like davinci said, you need to do the numbers. Scripts drive revenue, which is a single line on a set of financial statements. I said that 10,000 would be cash flow break-even, and I stand by that number. Why? If we take the trending price per Rx of 533 (off the chart that Liane updates weekly) 10,000 scripts would yield $21 million a month in revenue. What does that $21 million need to cover? 1. The contract sales force, which we know costs around $10 million / month. 2. R&D. Everyone talks about how great Technosphere will be, but it will be worthless without further research. R&D has been averaging $2 million / month. 3. General & Administrative expenses averaged $3.3 million a month in 2015, $2.5 million for the first quarter. Call it $3 million / month. 4. Production cost averaged $5.6 million a month in 2015, and $2.5 million in the first quarter. That was to support very limited sales volumes; if the company is successful with relaunch the cost per month will scale up accordingly. It will not be linear, due to production economies of scale, but the number will substantially larger. 5. Working capital, like accounts receivable, was Sanofi's problem. Now that has to be financed by Mannkind's balance sheet and that is a use of cash that doesn't hit the income statement. 6. The company booked $5.5 million in losses per month on the Amphastar contract in 2015. That contract has not gone away and the current year exposure based on the last 10Q was $13 million. So add all of that up, and you will see that it might take substantially more than 10,000 scripts to reach cash flow break even. In the meantime, the company will burn cash, the balance sheet will deteriorate, and that is what Wall Street will be looking at. Any decent financial analyst would do the same calculation I just outlined and come to a similar conclusion on the revenue needed to support the organization as it is today, and 5,000 scripts per week just isn't enough. Many on this forum advocate dropping the unit selling price to drive penetration, but that would require even more scripts to make up the shortfall in revenue so that really isn't a feasible solution either. With 5,000 scripts the share price would move up, no doubt about that, but the financing terms will still be tough until the company can prove that it can generate enough cash to meet its maturing commitments and that will cost dearly in dilution. That level of sales buys time and loosens up the financial markets, but it is still not enough to fix the overall financial situation. "The contract sales force which we know costs around $10 million per month". I certainly don't know that. Perhaps you can explain? And the monthly cash burn rate of $10-$12 million Matt stated is a lie? I think Matt's numbers above are misleading. I could argue lower expenses/cash burn but his overall point is correct... we need a lot more scripts to break even! I honestly think 600 scripts is the most important number! Why? Think about it, if mnkd can reach scripts equal to Sanofi in the same amount of time or less then Sanofi better watch out! Settlement coming! Sanofi has 1200-1500? reps in US and Mnkd does it with 60! You tell me how that looks for Sanofi in court?? I also believe we need DTC advertising like TV commercials to reach large script counts to break even. PTs must ask doctors for afrezza. |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 5, 2016 11:22:37 GMT -5
Make or break time for mnkd. Next 3-4 months very telling. Im holding. Really comes down to scripts unless unexpected news. I don't think sp moves much until we get trend up or down. To early to bail in my opinion. Check back late September early October then decide.
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 4, 2016 11:01:51 GMT -5
The last time I saw Dr. Combs, a little over a week ago, he had not heard a word from MNKD yet. They are hitting the doc's that were writing the scripts and stopped first I believe, so I'm hoping it will be soon! He has no issues with lung problems. Doesn't think there will be any and is excited about the product. So I'm crossing my fingers they get out there:-) Now even Drs that want to prescribe it can't move ahead. Pisses me off though i get that this is a company under a huge amount of stress and maybe not enough resources, money or time to handle it all To confirm what sports said mnkd is targeting currently prescribing endos first. Dr Combs will probably be hit soon. Mnkd has already met with my endo friend and it was very positive. They will meet again in late August. He is prescribing 2-4 afrezza PTs per week. mnkd has also reached out for him to speak. So things are moving well. Hope my feedback helps Kball. |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 2, 2016 19:54:35 GMT -5
I believe Lakon is correct... Technosphere+Epinephrine is coming. Would this be epic?? Not sure but timeline is getting close for possible news or update from mnkd. Thoughts?
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 30, 2016 18:24:40 GMT -5
Sure, I can do that. My endo friend is planning to meet area rep end of August. I'm assuming sample packs will be available then. With your endo friend interest, I would think Mannkind rep should visit him at the earliest rather than wait for your friend call Yes agree but I think his schedule is pretty busy so that's why it's later. |
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 30, 2016 17:21:44 GMT -5
Will my Endo friend be able to get 12 Unit samples for his PATIENTS? He has always mentioned this dose being in high demand in his clinic. Also, I want to know if the Afrezza package label will get any new changes in 2016? will probably be better to email freedom@mannkindcorp.com with details as I think Mike monitors that email and can better assist. Did your endo friend meet the area rep yet to directly request? last I heard new sample packs be available at the end of august? Sure, I can do that. My endo friend is planning to meet area rep end of August. I'm assuming sample packs will be available then. |
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 30, 2016 14:17:49 GMT -5
Will my Endo friend be able to get 12 Unit samples for his PATIENTS? He has always mentioned this dose being in high demand in his clinic.
Also, I want to know if the Afrezza package label will get any new changes in 2016?
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