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Post by kc on Nov 14, 2020 10:48:58 GMT -5
Hopefully MC is at least participating in discussions with vaccine developers. I also think that if this opportunity is missed by MNKD it will reveal the inabilities of this management team to capitalize on its technology. I am sure they are working behind the scenes for some partner interested. It takes money to do the research. Mike needs the big Pharma to come to him. All the Pharma’s know what Mannkind has and can produce. Nobody knows why we have had a pop in PPS lately. My guess is that a numbers of factors including Covid vaccine. With a Biden Administration you will see a lot of companies being purchased by big Pharma during the first year as it will be an open season on opportunity for expansion. Big Pharma is sitting on lots of cash right now waiting to pounce on the opportunity to get the next big winner. Look at United Thereaputics they are sitting on a lot of cash and would be smart to make a $10.00 tender offer to get a great company to enhance their portfolio.
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 14, 2020 10:53:53 GMT -5
Hopefully MC is at least participating in discussions with vaccine developers. I also think that if this opportunity is missed by MNKD it will reveal the inabilities of this management team to capitalize on its technology. I am sure they are working behind the scenes for some partner interested. It takes money to do the research. Mike needs the big Pharma to come to him. All the Pharma’s know what Mannkind has and can produce. Nobody knows why we have had a pop in PPS lately. My guess is that a numbers of factors including Covid vaccine. With a Biden Administration you will see a lot of companies being purchased by big Pharma during the first year as it will be an open season on opportunity for expansion. Big Pharma is sitting on lots of cash right now waiting to pounce on the opportunity to get the next big winner. Look at United Thereaputics they are sitting on a lot of cash and would be smart to make a $10.00 tender offer to get a great company to enhance their portfolio. So MNKD is only worth 2 billion and change? $10 gets MNKD almost back to even for its monetary investment, but does nothing to compensate for its approved drug or the pipeline. I would think it is worth a lot more than that. Hopefully we’ll find out sooner than later.
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Post by kc on Nov 14, 2020 16:39:44 GMT -5
It may be worth more than $10 per share. But that might be all it takes to make a deal happen. What do you think the company would do if they got a $10 tender offer. The shareholders as you know from the experience we’ve had the last six years would not have much say in any transaction other than to tender their shares to the buyer. I am sure they are working behind the scenes for some partner interested. It takes money to do the research. Mike needs the big Pharma to come to him. All the Pharma’s know what Mannkind has and can produce. Nobody knows why we have had a pop in PPS lately. My guess is that a numbers of factors including Covid vaccine. With a Biden Administration you will see a lot of companies being purchased by big Pharma during the first year as it will be an open season on opportunity for expansion. Big Pharma is sitting on lots of cash right now waiting to pounce on the opportunity to get the next big winner. Look at United Thereaputics they are sitting on a lot of cash and would be smart to make a $10.00 tender offer to get a great company to enhance their portfolio. So MNKD is only worth 2 billion and change? $10 gets MNKD almost back to even for its monetary investment, but does nothing to compensate for its approved drug or the pipeline. I would think it is worth a lot more than that. Hopefully we’ll find out sooner than later.
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Post by uvula on Nov 14, 2020 17:34:58 GMT -5
I would take 10. I would almost break even.
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Post by lennymnkd on Nov 14, 2020 17:49:27 GMT -5
If Technosphere was truly effective to be administered for Covid ..on the sub zero Mrna technology... . and would alleviate distribution concerns In this time of medical and economic crisis... you would think the government would step in eminent domain style and take over .. is anything that good .. I know I know it sounds crazy .. but so does everything else that’s going on lately. AND OF COURSE BE WELL COMPENSATED FOR IT ..
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 15, 2020 9:16:08 GMT -5
Speculating... Could it be that Pfizer doesn’t want details of a next gen vaccine released until approval and distribution of the current vaccine takes place? I can imagine that causing a lot of confusion and possibly interfere with the demand and plans for the first iteration.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 15, 2020 10:37:33 GMT -5
Speculating... Could it be that Pfizer doesn’t want details of a next gen vaccine released until approval and distribution of the current vaccine takes place? I can imagine that causing a lot of confusion and possibly interfere with the demand and plans for the first iteration. The next gen looks to essentially be the first gen with a new delivery mechanism. I would expect them to already have a team well down that path because the temperature constraint is going to be an issue and they need a fix for that. There is relatively little overlap between the teams because one team is finding the vaccine, and a different team is manufacturing it. This late in the process I would expect there to be an R&D team already well into the next gen delivery - you don't finish one and then start the next if you are big pharma, you have multiple threads running.
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 15, 2020 10:46:12 GMT -5
Speculating... Could it be that Pfizer doesn’t want details of a next gen vaccine released until approval and distribution of the current vaccine takes place? I can imagine that causing a lot of confusion and possibly interfere with the demand and plans for the first iteration. The next gen looks to essentially be the first gen with a new delivery mechanism. I would expect them to already have a team well down that path because the temperature constraint is going to be an issue and they need a fix for that. There is relatively little overlap between the teams because one team is finding the vaccine, and a different team is manufacturing it. This late in the process I would expect there to be an R&D team already well into the next gen delivery - you don't finish one and then start the next if you are big pharma, you have multiple threads running. Not disagreeing. I suggested that they didn’t want to release that information too early in the process of rolling out the first iteration. I would be thrilled if they released the information sooner than later.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 15, 2020 11:12:32 GMT -5
Hopefully MC is at least participating in discussions with vaccine developers. I also think that if this opportunity is missed by MNKD it will reveal the inabilities of this management team to capitalize on its technology. I am sure they are working behind the scenes for some partner interested. It takes money to do the research. Mike needs the big Pharma to come to him. All the Pharma’s know what Mannkind has and can produce. Nobody knows why we have had a pop in PPS lately. My guess is that a numbers of factors including Covid vaccine. With a Biden Administration you will see a lot of companies being purchased by big Pharma during the first year as it will be an open season on opportunity for expansion. Big Pharma is sitting on lots of cash right now waiting to pounce on the opportunity to get the next big winner. Look at United Thereaputics they are sitting on a lot of cash and would be smart to make a $10.00 tender offer to get a great company to enhance their portfolio. I cannot see a $10 tender. That values the company at $2.3B and nobody is going to bid that multiple. The Tyvaso net sales for last quarter were $129M, assume for a moment that Mannkind are getting the 20% royalties (I think this is generous, Medtronics only get 10%) then the quarterly cost to UTHR is $26M($104M a year). At that rate it would take more than 22 years to recover the cost. That is not a viable ROI as it stands. This could change with the label extension, but it would need to change an awful lot to make a purchase at that price viable.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 15, 2020 11:14:39 GMT -5
The next gen looks to essentially be the first gen with a new delivery mechanism. I would expect them to already have a team well down that path because the temperature constraint is going to be an issue and they need a fix for that. There is relatively little overlap between the teams because one team is finding the vaccine, and a different team is manufacturing it. This late in the process I would expect there to be an R&D team already well into the next gen delivery - you don't finish one and then start the next if you are big pharma, you have multiple threads running. Not disagreeing. I suggested that they didn’t want to release that information too early in the process of rolling out the first iteration. I would be thrilled if they released the information sooner than later. I would definitely agree with that. The last thing Pfizer want to do at this point is tread on their vaccine story.
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Post by matt on Nov 15, 2020 15:25:42 GMT -5
I cannot see a $10 tender. That values the company at $2.3B and nobody is going to bid that multiple. The Tyvaso net sales for last quarter were $129M, assume for a moment that Mannkind are getting the 20% royalties (I think this is generous, Medtronics only get 10%) then the quarterly cost to UTHR is $26M($104M a year). At that rate it would take more than 22 years to recover the cost. That is not a viable ROI as it stands. This could change with the label extension, but it would need to change an awful lot to make a purchase at that price viable. Exactly correct, and your admitted generous number also assumes that 100% of Tyvaso sales are converted to the new delivery system. Getting physicians to change prescribing habits is not easy, and if the new formulation costs significantly more than the liquid then the managed care companies writing the checks may have a strong opinion about what they are willing to pay. MNKD has experience putting an established drug into better deliver system that costs a lot more than other options, and that story has not ended so well. At the end of the day, the acquiring company's board (and in some cases their shareholders) has to approve the transaction. A takeout premium much above 35% for what is essentially a single drug delivery technology where most of the key patents are already in the public domain is a stretch. Remember that everybody has a boss, and convincing the acquiring company's management to stick their necks out that far is a challenge.
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Post by lennymnkd on Nov 15, 2020 15:41:37 GMT -5
Why the comparison numbers with Tyvaso and not the potential revenue from vaccines with infinite sales potential.. with vaccines that are a reality and are here and now .
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 15, 2020 18:23:03 GMT -5
I cannot see a $10 tender. That values the company at $2.3B and nobody is going to bid that multiple. The Tyvaso net sales for last quarter were $129M, assume for a moment that Mannkind are getting the 20% royalties (I think this is generous, Medtronics only get 10%) then the quarterly cost to UTHR is $26M($104M a year). At that rate it would take more than 22 years to recover the cost. That is not a viable ROI as it stands. This could change with the label extension, but it would need to change an awful lot to make a purchase at that price viable. Exactly correct, and your admitted generous number also assumes that 100% of Tyvaso sales are converted to the new delivery system. Getting physicians to change prescribing habits is not easy, and if the new formulation costs significantly more than the liquid then the managed care companies writing the checks may have a strong opinion about what they are willing to pay. MNKD has experience putting an established drug into better deliver system that costs a lot more than other options, and that story has not ended so well. At the end of the day, the acquiring company's board (and in some cases their shareholders) has to approve the transaction. A takeout premium much above 35% for what is essentially a single drug delivery technology where most of the key patents are already in the public domain is a stretch. Remember that everybody has a boss, and convincing the acquiring company's management to stick their necks out that far is a challenge. So you’re saying a tender between $3 and 4 per share would be more realistic at this point in time, if there were such an offer being contemplated.
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Post by peppy on Nov 16, 2020 8:10:33 GMT -5
Or moderna. I am not fussy.
The biotech company Moderna, Inc., said Monday that its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing disease, according to an analysis of its clinical trial.
The news comes a week after Pfizer and BioNTech said their vaccine was more than 90% effective.
The results for both vaccines come from interim analyses of large clinical studies. In the Moderna study there were 30,000 volunteers. Half got two doses of the vaccine 28 days apart, half got two shots of a placebo on the same schedule.
There were 95 instances of COVID-19 illness among the study participants — only five of those cases were in the vaccinated group. Ninety were in the group receiving the placebo. Of these, there were 11 cases of severe disease. The results indicate the vaccine was inducing the kind of immune response that protects people if they were exposed to the coronavirus.
"This positive interim analysis from our Phase 3 study has given us the first clinical validation that our vaccine can prevent COVID-19 disease, including severe disease," said Stéphane Bancel, chief executive officer of Moderna, in a statement.
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Both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use the same technology to make their vaccines. It's based on a molecule known as mRNA, or messenger RNA. That molecule contains genetic instructions for making proteins inside cells.
Pfizer Says Experimental COVID-19 Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS Pfizer Says Experimental COVID-19 Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective For the vaccine, researchers created an mRNA with the code for making the coronavirus spike protein. The protein is the key to the virus infecting cells. It's also what can trigger someone's immune system to make antibodies against the virus, but without causing infection since the rest of the virus is missing.
That two mRNA vaccines appear to be working is remarkable, since the technology is new and there hasn't been an mRNA vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration made to date.
The Moderna and Pfizer studies were conducted using slightly different protocols. To be counted as a COVID-19 case, participants in the Moderna study had to have at least two symptoms of disease in addition to a positive test for the virus. The Pfizer study required only one symptom. Also, Moderna waited 14 days following the second injection to begin counting cases; Pfizer's study started counting at seven days.
The vaccines also differ in their storage requirements. Moderna says its vaccine can be safely stored in freezers at about 25 degrees Fahrenheit (-4 degrees Celsius), a temperature easily reached by a home refrigerator freezer. Pfizer's vaccine required storage in specialized ultracold freezers capable of cooling below -94 degrees Fahrenheit (-70 degrees Celsius). Moderna also says its vaccine will remain potent for up to 30 days at normal refrigerated temperatures, which should ease distribution.
Both companies' vaccine studies managed to recruit a reasonably diverse group of people. Moderna reports that 6,000 enrollees who identified as Hispanic or Latinx participants, and more than 3,000 participants who identified as Black or African-American, as well as 7,000 people older than 65, and 5,000 with high-risk chronic diseases.
Pfizer and Moderna are still gathering safety data the Food and Drug Administration has said are necessary for consideration of an emergency use authorization that would allow the companies to distribute the vaccine during the pandemic.
Fauci Voices Cautious Optimism About Moderna Vaccine, Calling Trial 'Quite Promising' May 22, 2020 Side effects seen for the Moderna vaccine at the interim analysis included pain at the injection site, fatigue and aching muscles and joints. The data safety and monitoring board didn't identify "any significant safety concerns."
Moderna said it intends to file "in the coming weeks" with the FDA for authorization of the company's vaccine for emergency use.
The federal Operation Warp Speed project to hasten development of COVID-19 vaccines awarded Moderna a $1.5 billion contract in August to ramp up manufacturing and deliver 100 million vaccine doses, enough for 50 million people. The government has an option to buy up to 400 million more doses.
Moderna said Monday that it expects to be able to ship about 20 million vaccine doses in the U.S. by the end of 2020. Next year, the company said it expects to be able to make 500 million to 1 billion doses worldwide.
The research and development of the Moderna vaccine was aided by $955 million in federal funding from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority. Moderna has also been developing this vaccine alongside the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which in July told NPR it expects to spend about $410 million on the effort.
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Post by rfogel on Nov 16, 2020 8:34:31 GMT -5
MRNA is up over 12 bucks pre-market.
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