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Post by mango on Nov 16, 2020 13:26:32 GMT -5
I cannot see a $10 tender. That values the company at $2.3B and nobody is going to bid that multiple. The Tyvaso net sales for last quarter were $129M, assume for a moment that Mannkind are getting the 20% royalties (I think this is generous, Medtronics only get 10%) then the quarterly cost to UTHR is $26M($104M a year). At that rate it would take more than 22 years to recover the cost. That is not a viable ROI as it stands. This could change with the label extension, but it would need to change an awful lot to make a purchase at that price viable. Exactly correct, and your admitted generous number also assumes that 100% of Tyvaso sales are converted to the new delivery system. Getting physicians to change prescribing habits is not easy, and if the new formulation costs significantly more than the liquid then the managed care companies writing the checks may have a strong opinion about what they are willing to pay. MNKD has experience putting an established drug into better deliver system that costs a lot more than other options, and that story has not ended so well. At the end of the day, the acquiring company's board (and in some cases their shareholders) has to approve the transaction. A takeout premium much above 35% for what is essentially a single drug delivery technology where most of the key patents are already in the public domain is a stretch. Remember that everybody has a boss, and convincing the acquiring company's management to stick their necks out that far is a challenge. Eh, we’ve been over this countless times already. Physicians won’t have a choice because Tyvaso will be phased out entirely and replaced with TreT. This is coming directly from Martine Rothblatt.
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Post by rfogel on Nov 16, 2020 15:32:53 GMT -5
Is there any plan to do an interim analysis in the TreT trial?
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Post by matt on Nov 16, 2020 16:02:57 GMT -5
Exactly correct, and your admitted generous number also assumes that 100% of Tyvaso sales are converted to the new delivery system. Getting physicians to change prescribing habits is not easy, and if the new formulation costs significantly more than the liquid then the managed care companies writing the checks may have a strong opinion about what they are willing to pay. MNKD has experience putting an established drug into better deliver system that costs a lot more than other options, and that story has not ended so well. At the end of the day, the acquiring company's board (and in some cases their shareholders) has to approve the transaction. A takeout premium much above 35% for what is essentially a single drug delivery technology where most of the key patents are already in the public domain is a stretch. Remember that everybody has a boss, and convincing the acquiring company's management to stick their necks out that far is a challenge. So you’re saying a tender between $3 and 4 per share would be more realistic at this point in time, if there were such an offer being contemplated. The price as I write this post is $2.81, so a takeout price closer to $4 is realistic. Realize though that if there were no buyers six months ago when the market price was $1.25, there probably won't be any buyers at the higher price either. The company has Afrezza, a drug delivery technology, and some royalties coming from the UTHR collaboration. That is also what the company had six months ago, so while a few events may be closer than they were before, the fundamental story has not changed. Acquirers don't chase after companies with rising prices unless they are desperate for something the portfolio.
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 16, 2020 16:13:01 GMT -5
You two talk a lot of poop. Anybody here want to be bought out ... raise your hands. Nope, not a single hand went up. But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by winstonsmith on Nov 16, 2020 18:03:15 GMT -5
You two talk a lot of poop. Anybody here want to be bought out ... raise your hands. Nope, not a single hand went up. But, that's mytakeonit Would love for MNKD to be purchased at a decent price. Hand raised.
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Post by peppy on Nov 16, 2020 18:14:14 GMT -5
The vaccines also differ in their storage requirements. Moderna says its vaccine can be safely stored in freezers at about 25 degrees Fahrenheit (-4 degrees Celsius), a temperature easily reached by a home refrigerator freezer. Pfizer's vaccine required storage in specialized ultracold freezers capable of cooling below -94 degrees Fahrenheit (-70 degrees Celsius). Moderna also says its vaccine will remain potent for up to 30 days at normal refrigerated temperatures, which should ease distribution.
both vaccine are two doses 28 days apart.
The screws just got tighter on Pfizer to figure out distribution.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 16, 2020 18:18:35 GMT -5
You two talk a lot of poop. Anybody here want to be bought out ... raise your hands. Nope, not a single hand went up. But, that's mytakeonit Would love for MNKD to be purchased at a decent price. Hand raised. Yeah, what he said. Oh look, I see lots of hands raised for that! But I suspect Matt is correct, no likely buyers currently.
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Post by thekid2499 on Nov 16, 2020 18:26:33 GMT -5
Not sure why you would accept $3 or $4 per share right now if you are long. We are at roughly $2.80 and we have been through the real hard stuff already. I could see accepting that when we were treading water around a $1 or lower and there was real concern about whether the company would make it. But now? This could easily run up well past that just with continued positive developments with Trep-T.
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Post by gamblerjag on Nov 16, 2020 18:46:50 GMT -5
Not sure why you would accept $3 or $4 per share right now if you are long. We are at roughly $2.80 and we have been through the real hard stuff already. I could see accepting that when we were treading water around a $1 or lower and there was real concern about whether the company would make it. But now? This could easily run up well past that just with continued positive developments with Trep-T. . Maybe there are no lbuyers… And I’m good with that. My guess isMike doesn’t want to sell now anyway. Mike spying last June is another indication that he does not want to sell.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 16, 2020 18:56:43 GMT -5
Not sure why you would accept $3 or $4 per share right now if you are long. We are at roughly $2.80 and we have been through the real hard stuff already. I could see accepting that when we were treading water around a $1 or lower and there was real concern about whether the company would make it. But now? This could easily run up well past that just with continued positive developments with Trep-T. . Maybe there are no lbuyers… And I’m good with that. My guess isMike doesn’t want to sell now anyway. Mike spying last June is another indication that he does not want to sell. Mike doesn't have the power to sell the company. And what's this about "Mike spying last June?" I have no idea what that's supposed to mean.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 16, 2020 18:58:43 GMT -5
Not sure why you would accept $3 or $4 per share right now if you are long. We are at roughly $2.80 and we have been through the real hard stuff already. I could see accepting that when we were treading water around a $1 or lower and there was real concern about whether the company would make it. But now? This could easily run up well past that just with continued positive developments with Trep-T. I wouldn’t take $3 right now. As winstonsmith said, “at a decent price” I would raise my hand. What is that price? Good question. We should be worth way more than we are currently, but that’s been true for years. The problem is while waiting for the potential to come to fruition, real money can be made by investing in better stocks. It’s that thing called opportunity cost.
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Post by castlerockchris on Nov 16, 2020 19:20:51 GMT -5
I would think a tender offer in the 3 - 4 range, while currently realistic, would be met by serious laughter and gnashing of teeth.
Let's not forget the value of the NOL's. I am not sure what the NOL's are at this point and I am absolutely too lazy on a Monday night to look them up. I have to believe that we have around 1 to 2 billion in NOL which to the right, highly profitable biopharma has real value.
On top of that, I assume the acquiring company has a reason to acquire MNKD beyond the current drug and pipeline of drugs. I would think they would have a drug in their own pipeline where MNKD's technology would improve market share or efficacy. If that were the case and depending on the size of their opportunity, MNKD might be a reasonable investment. If a company had what they believed to be a two billion dollar annual revenue drug in its pipeline or already in the market place and MNKD could improve the market share, longevity of their patent or price by 10% plus the the value of the NOL's, I don't think a two billion market cap when added to the exiting pipeline is that for out there. Again, all speculation.
by way of example, MNKD can help Phizer ship their vaccine at normal refrigeration levels or better it will save them hundreds of millions of dollars and increase their speed to market. David Gitlin, the CEO of Carrier is on the record saying shipping of 5 billion doses (2.5 billion X 2) is possible, but at serious cost and would take time to ramp up. Especially if it is intended for geographic areas that are lacking a reliable electric grid - the African continent, parts of China, and remote areas in Central and South America.
Sadly, I do not see a buyout anywhere in the near future. This is going to be a grind it out game for the next two or three years. MNKD needs to have two or three drugs in market, on its own or through partnership. They also need to be manufacturing those drugs. And the pipeline needs three to four serious contenders with significant TAM. The company needs to be generating 300 - 500 million in annual revenue, be near cash flow breakeven, and have the carry forward of the NOL's to warrant a 2 - 3 billion market cap. Only then will a reasonable offer happen.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 16, 2020 19:27:41 GMT -5
. Maybe there are no lbuyers… And I’m good with that. My guess isMike doesn’t want to sell now anyway. Mike spying last June is another indication that he does not want to sell. Mike doesn't have the power to sell the company. And what's this about "Mike spying last June?" I have no idea what that's supposed to mean. Ditto and ditto.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 16, 2020 19:41:08 GMT -5
I talked to him, he meant buying not spying🤣
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Post by mytakeonit on Nov 16, 2020 21:17:18 GMT -5
You two talk a lot of poop. Anybody here want to be bought out ... raise your hands. Nope, not a single hand went up. But, that's mytakeonit Would love for MNKD to be purchased at a decent price. Hand raised. So winstonsmith ... you do know that they were talking about a tender offer of $3 or $4. Are you still okay with that and will raise your hand? I doubt it. But, that's mytakeonit
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