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Post by letitride on Jan 23, 2024 3:25:48 GMT -5
With talk like this on this board it feels like Mike is about to raise the dead. Lets Go!
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limo
Researcher
Posts: 82
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Post by limo on Jan 23, 2024 3:31:08 GMT -5
don't forget united therapeutics trades on a PE of 11. Not sure why MNKD would be higher than theirs.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 23, 2024 7:21:00 GMT -5
don't forget united therapeutics trades on a PE of 11. Not sure why MNKD would be higher than theirs. Good comment. P/E ratio can vary widely which is why I was using the averages for NASDAQ and Pharma-Drugs (per NYU estimate). I’ve not tried to investigate how P/E ratio varies as a function of share price or market capitalization or any business performance measurement, but I assume it is those functions which drive a lower P/E for a company like UTHR rather than some particular reason for low valuation of UTHR. Frankly, I’d be overjoyed for MNKD to have a P/E of 11 if the share price was also over $200 per share. |
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Post by rickf on Jan 23, 2024 8:00:10 GMT -5
It would be interesting to know how many folks on this board think that sales can get to $450 -$500M with a share price of $21 - $35 by 2026. My thoughts (based only on gut feel and the history of the company) is that there is no way we get there by 2026. What does everyone else think?
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Post by Clement on Jan 23, 2024 8:22:23 GMT -5
^ rickf
Let's assume that 2023 ends with $193M. Add $4M increase each quarter based mostly on TDPI. 4+8+12+16=40. Then end of 2024 is $233M. Then end of 2025 is $273M. In 2026, it's possible that Afrezza Peds, nintedanib, clofazimine, and maybe TDPI-IPF will contribute. Anybody's guess. How about a guess of $20M additional each quarter in 2026. 20+40+60+80=$200. Then end of 2026 is $473M.
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Post by Clement on Jan 23, 2024 9:44:32 GMT -5
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 23, 2024 14:31:20 GMT -5
The average P/E for NASDAQ is ~25.71 and the average P/E for Pharma-Drugs is 38.94 (per NYU).
The IBB has 17.7 P/E and the IHE lists 18.9. Assuming 39 P/E for a particular time point in the future seems a bit of wishful thinking. If Mike can execute on the revenue growth he shows, I'm 100% positive I'll be thrilled with the share price. Of the many ifs with MNKD this may be the biggest, hence why we sit below $4 still. But past behavior isn't always predictive of future, so there is hope. |
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Post by ktim on Jan 23, 2024 14:58:43 GMT -5
The IBB has 17.7 P/E and the IHE lists 18.9. Assuming 39 P/E for a particular time point in the future seems a bit of wishful thinking. If Mike can execute on the revenue growth he shows, I'm 100% positive I'll be thrilled with the share price. Of the many ifs with MNKD this may be the biggest, hence why we sit below $4 still. But past behavior isn't always predictive of future, so there is hope. I've never before seen "non-risk adjusted" guidance. Makes me fear that might be a synonym for non-reality adjusted, lol. It's one thing if this is a likely outcome scenario. It's very different if this is best possible of all scenarios that would be equivalent of winning the lottery... not adjusting for the risk/fact lottery tickets are huge long shots. Technically if I bought a power ball ticket right now, I might claim the "non-risk adjusted" value of that as $145M. I doubt a bank would accept that as projection of my future income if I apply for a mortgage. "But Mr Banker, that's my non-risk adjusted income." Wonder if the same crowd will still be here ten years from now to look back on this chart... I assume we'll all have satellite internet on our private islands and likely still speculating about naked shorting holding us down, lol. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 23, 2024 15:11:56 GMT -5
I will argue Mike's execution is why we're able to still be here making remarks about the company's possible future. And, as Clement posted, the average of six analysts (as seen on Yahoo!) showed similar numbers as have been speculated here on this board, presumably based on the trend of past performance.
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Post by ktim on Jan 23, 2024 16:00:47 GMT -5
I give a good amount of credit to Mike. Though I think messaging to investors is still lacking often... like confusion over revenue recognition for Tyvaso royalty leading to disappointment with last earnings call.
Though at this point, this coming year really isn't about Mike executing. It's really all up to UTHR to deliver the growth being expected. No real growth of Afrezza projected until 2025, so nothing much to judge Mike's execution until then. The growth in Afrezza after that point doesn't really reflect some paradigm shifting event, so hopefully at least that part of the projection is a realistic assessment of potential, or even better "under promising and over delivering". ~$450M in 2032 Afrezza revenue, especially with price inflation contributing growth, isn't something that would seem unreasonable. I'm sure some here believe the number should be much higher.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 23, 2024 16:14:10 GMT -5
The MannKind chart Mike presented (at mnkd.proboards.com/post/260515) which precipitated the discussion in the "FY 2023 Forecast" thread (and the "Can sales get to $450M to $500M in 2026?" thread's poll) included substantial income from clofazimine and the pipeline, but also notably improvement in Afrezza sales based on "Peds non-inferior" status. I'm not sure if that status qualifies as "paradigm shifting", but whether it qualifies or not, it makes a material contribution to forecasted improvements in sales of Afrezza. There have been multiple posts about the need for more guidance from MNKD management (but not from me because I am not a fan of guidance and much prefer "under-promise and over deliver") so I think the chart should perhaps be welcome by guidance fans. |
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Post by ktim on Jan 23, 2024 19:01:01 GMT -5
The MannKind chart Mike presented (at mnkd.proboards.com/post/260515) which precipitated the discussion in the "FY 2023 Forecast" thread (and the "Can sales get to $450M to $500M in 2026?" thread's poll) included substantial income from clofazimine and the pipeline, but also notably improvement in Afrezza sales based on "Peds non-inferior" status. I'm not sure if that status qualifies as "paradigm shifting", but whether it qualifies or not, it makes a material contribution to forecasted improvements in sales of Afrezza. There have been multiple posts about the need for more guidance from MNKD management (but not from me because I am not a fan of guidance and much prefer "under-promise and over deliver") so I think the chart should perhaps be welcome by guidance fans. I was interpreting the two different colors as the trajectory of Afrezza if for some totally unexpected reason peds approval doesn't happen vs the additional if it is. If that is correct, then the growth from peds approval is meaningful, but not generating some sort of inflection point. Even out to 2032 peds approval doesn't account for half of the projected sales. Though perhaps the peds color is only counting actual pediatric patients in any given year not the ongoing effects of the binary peds approval. With or without peds the growth story is really Tyvaso near term and pipeline long term... not Afrezza (at least as being told by Mike). |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 24, 2024 7:30:26 GMT -5
The MannKind chart Mike presented (at mnkd.proboards.com/post/260515) which precipitated the discussion in the "FY 2023 Forecast" thread (and the "Can sales get to $450M to $500M in 2026?" thread's poll) included substantial income from clofazimine and the pipeline, but also notably improvement in Afrezza sales based on "Peds non-inferior" status. I'm not sure if that status qualifies as "paradigm shifting", but whether it qualifies or not, it makes a material contribution to forecasted improvements in sales of Afrezza. There have been multiple posts about the need for more guidance from MNKD management (but not from me because I am not a fan of guidance and much prefer "under-promise and over deliver") so I think the chart should perhaps be welcome by guidance fans. I was interpreting the two different colors as the trajectory of Afrezza if for some totally unexpected reason peds approval doesn't happen vs the additional if it is. If that is correct, then the growth from peds approval is meaningful, but not generating some sort of inflection point. Even out to 2032 peds approval doesn't account for half of the projected sales. Though perhaps the peds color is only counting actual pediatric patients in any given year not the ongoing effects of the binary peds approval. With or without peds the growth story is really Tyvaso near term and pipeline long term... not Afrezza (at least as being told by Mike). Your interpretation makes sense. I’ll see if I can find and listen to the audio to see if that’s what Mike meant. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 12, 2024 12:03:15 GMT -5
TipRanks expects 4Q and YE2023 earnings report on February 26. Stockevents.app estimates February 21st. Any updates to your model estimates parrerob? |
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Post by parrerob on Feb 21, 2024 11:40:46 GMT -5
Hi PRC....
No news except the fact that in the total revenues We should see the 10% revenues stream from Tyvaso (as for Your advice), while the 1% sold should be taken out in the cost side. For my calculation there are no big differences, as Tyvasi DPI rev go directly in the bottom line, but formally yes the total revenues reported should take the whole 10% from Tyvaso DPI....
So I am expecting total revenues from MNKD Q4 2023 equal to around 53 M$ (14 from Afrezza, 4,6 from Vgo, 21,4 from Tyvaso DPI, 13 from coll&serv)
Then on the cost side We will have 2,1 M$ more (representing the 1% from Tyvaso TDI rev)
I strongly hope to reach at least -0,01$ loss per share hopefully not less.
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