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Post by uvula on Feb 21, 2024 12:08:37 GMT -5
Are you all including 9% not 10% royalty in your projections?
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Post by Clement on Feb 21, 2024 12:23:17 GMT -5
It appears the Sagard deal was with MNKD, not UTHR.
So, I suggest that to project royalty paid from UTHR to MNKD, use 10%. Payment to Sagard will come out on the cost side.
(I am not an accountant. If someone knows better, fire away.)
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Feb 21, 2024 13:14:22 GMT -5
Are you all including 9% not 10% royalty in your projections? Is the royalty sale effective retroactively on Q4 TDPI or does it start based on Q1 24? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 21, 2024 13:29:29 GMT -5
Are you all including 9% not 10% royalty in your projections? The royalty arrangement with UTHR didn't change. They still pay 10%. After MNKD gets their 10% they then give 10% of the 10% (i.e., 1%) to Sagaard.
rebby asked a good question about when that 1% pass-through starts, but I don't know the answer. |
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Post by parrerob on Feb 21, 2024 13:40:04 GMT -5
In my understanding it starts from q4 23.
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Post by parrerob on Feb 21, 2024 14:29:21 GMT -5
Starting from q4 23... confirmation from MNKD press release You can find on ufficial MNKD webpage:
"Under the terms of the royalty purchase agreement, Sagard Healthcare will receive royalty payments equal to 1% of the net sales of Tyvaso DPI that occur between October 1, 2023 and December 31, 2042, with MannKind retaining a 9% royalty."
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Post by parrerob on Feb 21, 2024 15:09:03 GMT -5
Considering 19 years + 1 quarter we have 77 quarters....
Considering 2,1 M$ (plus or menus) the 1% from q4 23 result and multiplying for 77 we got 154M$.....
Mmmh.... considering the devaluation will apply more or less to drug cost as well and considering also we hope the 1% to be 4-5 in a couple of years what a nice deal they (Sagard) have done... yes they are paying the risk in front of a super return
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 21, 2024 15:41:14 GMT -5
Considering 19 years + 1 quarter we have 77 quarters.... Considering 2,1 M$ (plus or menus) the 1% from q4 23 result and multiplying for 77 we got 154M$..... Mmmh.... considering the devaluation will apply more or less to drug cost as well and considering also we hope the 1% to be 4-5 in a couple of years what a nice deal they (Sagard) have done... yes they are paying the risk in front of a super return If you check the LQDA thread, UTHR's Tyvaso DPI is doomed as compared to Yutrepia (and therefore MNKD's deal with Sagaard must be a masterful stroke of genius). Of course, I completely discount nearly all of the cheerleading for Yutrepia (while at the same time respecting that LQDA might be a good investment and with no disrespect intended to LQDA investors). |
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Post by cjc04 on Feb 23, 2024 11:46:48 GMT -5
After all these years, this is the strangest feeling going into an earnings call. Best position the company has ever been in and just hovering around $3.50 with no interest at all.
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 23, 2024 12:29:30 GMT -5
After all these years, this is the strangest feeling going into an earnings call. Best position the company has ever been in and just hovering around $3.50 with no interest at all. The $3.50 makes sense. If history repeats it will go to $5.50 and then to $3.50. The current MNKD business plan is not exciting and its conflicted. They have the Tyvaso DPI annuity which will pay the bills. They also have a potential FDA approved super blockbuster but have decided to let BP/PBMs dictate and as such it will never be anything more than a niche drug. They have a purchased insulin device which at best will break even but competes against afrezza. Their lead pipeline candidate MKND-101 is several years away and when approved further cements MNKD in the orphan business which is very much different than the market afrezza is in. Before MNKD breaks out of this trading range it needs a better business plan which does not have a conflicting identity. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 23, 2024 12:54:15 GMT -5
"...decided to let BP/PBMs dictate..."
The "let" part of that phrase is amusing to me. It feels like saying something like "Belgium let Germany invade".
Afrezza is the best prandial insulin on the planet. Maybe someday that will actually make it the best selling drug of all time. I have my doubts. (I didn't used to but that was several years ago at this point.)
Orphan drugs have a "fast track" with the FDA, so if you're a small boutique pipeline company, it's not a bad strategy. Seriously, if you're a pipeline company, you better have a multi-billionaire willing to fund you and take 20 years, or you should be thinking more along the lines of what costs the least, goes the fastest, and has the best bang for the buck. And I don't mean swing for the fences, because, well, I'm a conservative kind of person.
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 23, 2024 13:03:05 GMT -5
If you check the LQDA thread, UTHR's Tyvaso DPI is doomed as compared to Yutrepia (and therefore MNKD's deal with Sagaard must be a masterful stroke of genius). Of course, I completely discount nearly all of the cheerleading for Yutrepia (while at the same time respecting that LQDA might be a good investment and with no disrespect intended to LQDA investors). I expect Tyvaso-DPI to get the bulk of the PH-ILD and PAH markets because they will have first mover advantage and, more importantly, I don't see LQDA having the manufacturing capacity to meet all the demand. I suspect LQDA will be just fine with that. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 23, 2024 18:19:51 GMT -5
"...decided to let BP/PBMs dictate..." The "let" part of that phrase is amusing to me. It feels like saying something like "Belgium let Germany invade". Afrezza is the best prandial insulin on the planet. Maybe someday that will actually make it the best selling drug of all time. I have my doubts. (I didn't used to but that was several years ago at this point.) Orphan drugs have a "fast track" with the FDA, so if you're a small boutique pipeline company, it's not a bad strategy. Seriously, if you're a pipeline company, you better have a multi-billionaire willing to fund you and take 20 years, or you should be thinking more along the lines of what costs the least, goes the fastest, and has the best bang for the buck. And I don't mean swing for the fences, because, well, I'm a conservative kind of person. I don't know about Germany invading Belgium. I see it more like someone who is in an abusive relationship and for years they had no option but to stay. Then one day they hit the Powerball for $300M and have so far made the decision to stay and continue being abused. MNKD has options now they did not before. Maybe its as simple as after all these years of abuse MNKD has Stockholm syndrome. When MNKD-101 becomes reality hopefully they again license to UTHR who knows what they are doing in the orphan space. This "fast tracking" however is going to take another 2 years. At this point we don't need a "fast track" with the FDA. We already have an FDA approve drug. How much faster do you want? We also know VDex has proven out 2 of the 3 issues afrezza has and has shown great success; label/dosing; and SoC. The remaining issue is cost. VDex can not fix that. Its not that we are guessing about label, SoC and cost. We can see the success VDex has had with limited resources. We also know when asked what their biggest issue is and they tell us their patients can't afford it so too many times they need to go to the next best option. Staying with the current business plan is fine if MNKD were a mom and pop business. Being an emerging publicly held biotech with not one but 2 potential blockbuster drugs and their long term goal is to grow 6% will guarantee the 3:50 - 5.50 pps. You say you are a conservative guy. If so I would say MNKD is not the correct investment for you. On the other hand Vanguard's Index 500 fund 10 year return is 11%. If Joe Biden's dad invested $1000 for Joey when he was born in Vanguard's 500 fund he would have over $4M today. |
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Post by wyattdog on Feb 23, 2024 18:57:14 GMT -5
MannKind expected to post breakeven results a share-Earnings Preview 02/23/2024 05:35 MannKind Corp is expected to show a rise in quarterly revenue when it reports results on February 27 for the period ending December 31 2023 * The Danbury Connecticut-based company is expected to report a 48.6% increase in revenue to $53.58 million from $36.06 million a year ago, according to the mean estimate from 6 analysts, based on LSEG data. * ?LSEG's mean analyst estimate for MannKind Corp is for breakeven results per share. * The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 5 "strong buy" or "buy," 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell." * The mean earnings estimate of analysts was unchanged in the last three months. Wall Street's median 12-month price target for MannKind Corp is $6.75.For any other questions or feedback, contact RefinitivNewsSupport@thomsonreuters.com
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Post by parrerob on Feb 27, 2024 16:04:36 GMT -5
MannKind Corporation reports impressive financial results for Q4 2023 and full year 2023 with total revenues of $199M, net income of $1M, and cash position of $302M. Positive revenue growth driven by Afrezza and collaborations. Clinical trials progressing well with upcoming data read-outs and FDA submissions.
WoW
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