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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 17:24:34 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise the one thing your theory doesn't take into account is Brandicourt abruptly taking over, even if those were SNY's thoughts when signing the agreement under the precious CEO (and I think this theory violates the horse = hoofbeats litmus test) things must have changed once Brandicourt took the reigns, so if SNY (and Brandicourt) knew and were sympathetic to this level of difficulty Afrezza would need to overcome (because they knew from the beginning per your theory) then why neglect Afrezza during the CCs and make it seem like such a niche third string drug? Wouldn't they want to bolster it knowing it was already facing an uphill battle with the inherent label and other difficulties? on the German discussion board site (you can access under the social media category) the predominant theory is that SNY just wants Afrezza for pediatric use. Pediatric use can't happen until those FDA studies are complete. So, you are talking years... and maybe, by then, SNY will take the whole company or have a technology of it's own. SO MANY moral hazards in this relationship. I don't know anything about Brandicourt except that I don't think I'd want to be his friend. If I can learn German over the next 24hrs, I may have to read up on this German board. But seriously you wanna share the URL? |
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Post by jacobmorin on Dec 7, 2015 17:26:13 GMT -5
I don't understand the folks who are hoping for a new partner and seeing that as a potential positive... If SNY walks away from Afrezza your MNKD investment is gone.
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Post by bill on Dec 7, 2015 17:26:04 GMT -5
Couldn't SNY's behavior be simply explained by Brandicourt, et al setting an inadequate (by our measures) 2015 budget? If Brandicourt was less than enthusiastic about Afrezza (which we have every reason to believe), then the Afrezza budget was likely inadequate for all the studies, insurance coverage improvements, global applications, and DTC advertising we all expected to occur. With a constrained budget the JAC made business decisions to do the basic studies, do some low-cost DTC advertising, work on some 2016 insurance coverage improvements, restrict the target audience, and delay global applications and launches. A low budget wouldn't have had anything to do with SNY's intent or their commitment to MNKD--just less interest in Afrezza than, let's say Toujeo.
At this point, the question is whether the Afrezza budget for 2016 will expand, contract, or cease. Even if it expands, the question is whether its a modest expansion, or one where they begin to spend obscene amounts of money to pair Afrezza / Toujeo so they can try and regain their market leadership.
Whether you agree, or disagree with my premise, isn't it at least "simple," and therefore plausible?
Furthermore, if the shorts knew what SNY's budget was then they'd have a rock solid short--particularly if retail customers had no clue. What I lament is that if the budget was inadequate to bring reasonable scripts to bear in 2015, why didn't SNY and MNKD management let everyone know what they were doing and why?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 7, 2015 17:27:35 GMT -5
dream, I believe investors are misguided with the idea that MNKD can shift into a sales and marketing organization. To make that happen MNKD needs 500 million in cash right now. All of that expertise would need to be brought in, office space, support staff etc etc. Very expensive and well beyond MNKD's financial capabilities as is. Of course there's always al's money but I doubt he would or even could at this point put another half billion in cash into MNKD. If he did, the share count would balloon to over a billion shares on almost no revenue? It's not a pathway I see as viable. MNKD could pare a plan like that into something smaller and include a contract house to sell afrezza but given the hurdles, not sure that's a viable plan either. So, I have to just shake my head reading various sources who state that mnkd could just go it alone if SNY bails. People might want to sketch out some math on that easy-to-make statement. I think we all understand what you have said and agree BUT the question stands IF SNY is "neglecting" [or "sandbagging"] Afrezza, what choice does MNKS have? Would it be preferable for them to just continue to sit on their hands and hope that SNY has a change of heart? Or would your position just be that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place - better the devil we know...? I'd sure be using every last bit of my energy and connections in the diabetes medical community to try to line up supporters for Afrezza if I were Al under the sandbag scenario. |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 7, 2015 17:27:36 GMT -5
It doesn't necessarily mean they are taking explicit actions to "sandbag" or are working "against Afrezza", SNY could simply passively neglect Afrezza (like the way they coincidentally have been) and I believe that could still be characterized as "sandbagging" - so maybe we just disagree on semantics(?). If SNY is smart they will not let MNKD go, they will simply let MNKD and Afrezza naturally die on the vine through simple passive neglect, and you are absolutely correct in that MNKD has not put themselves in a very good position to justify MNKD walking away, just another mishap on the part of this wholly incompetent management team - putting every last egg in the SNY basket. I have to agree with your last piece of reasoning Other potential partners would probably be hesitant to jump into a potential nasty legal battle. I'm kindof confused after responding, You said "I'm not a believer in the sandbag scenario." but I don't see how any of what followed questioned the validity of the "sandbag scenario" - did I misread or misinterpret your position? Jeremg, I tend to agree with you, Sanofi is neglecting Afrezza. My take on this is that Brandicourt came in as a replacement for someone that was trying to rock the boat too much; therefore, his first year has reflected a fairly conservative agenda, which clearly has backfired. Now that Toujeo has turned out to be somewhat disappointing, it remains to be seen if Sanofi will turn to Afrezza with considerably more push. Yet as you said, in the end, whether you believe that Sanofi did it on purpose, sandbagging, or out of neglect, the results are the same, so where is Mannkind's management in all this, because they are absolutely as responsible for the situation as Sanofi is. Enough with the complacency, a bit more transparency, and a bit more control. Basically, stop the patting in the back for bringing Afrezza to life and mind the store. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 17:30:52 GMT -5
mssciguy personally I eat a can of sardines everyday (for health), luckily I also have some cheap abundant sushi in my neck of the woods though, so I can have my fish and eat it too regardless of whether WS steals all my hard earned money  Same here, I live around a lot of ponds (including one in my backyard, although I don't know what goldfish sushi is like --- yet  ) My favorite sardines are King Oscar.. beats any of that unsustainable sushi by far. But.... back on topic........ I truly hope that Al has enough energy (and willingness) to fight a little. I've read the interviews, all of his kids are taken care of, these days he's more concerned with his foundation and the money he's giving away... Not the best thing for us shareholders at this particular time. The sharks know it and are feeding daily. Play defense guys.... |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2015 17:39:43 GMT -5
dream, I believe investors are misguided with the idea that MNKD can shift into a sales and marketing organization. To make that happen MNKD needs 500 million in cash right now. All of that expertise would need to be brought in, office space, support staff etc etc. Very expensive and well beyond MNKD's financial capabilities as is. Of course there's always al's money but I doubt he would or even could at this point put another half billion in cash into MNKD. If he did, the share count would balloon to over a billion shares on almost no revenue? It's not a pathway I see as viable. MNKD could pare a plan like that into something smaller and include a contract house to sell afrezza but given the hurdles, not sure that's a viable plan either. So, I have to just shake my head reading various sources who state that mnkd could just go it alone if SNY bails. People might want to sketch out some math on that easy-to-make statement. I think we all understand what you have said and agree BUT the question stands IF SNY is "neglecting" [or "sandbagging"] Afrezza, what choice does MNKS have? Would it be preferable for them to just continue to sit on their hands and hope that SNY has a change of heart? Or would your position just be that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place - better the devil we know...? ah, ok. Brain was working in a different direction. SNY is not serving MNKD's interest so far. But given MNKD's cash position and assuming no new infusions, MNKD has no choice but to ride this out so I don't see MNKD dumping SNY. If SNY is sandbagging afrezza, what choice does MNKD have going forward? The answer imho of course is rooted in cash. Follow with me for a second - if MNKD had plenty of cash on hand they could go it alone or they could ride it out a bit until they secured a new partner. Cash is key for either option. If SNY bailed, Al might put some cash into MNKD just so they could negotiate from a position of security rather than a hail mary. But what if SNY bails and al does not inject a significant amount of cash into MNKD? Well, back to basics. MNKD needs cash but without cash MNKD will spiral downward quickly and in that situation it will go BK or sell off assets like afrezza for a major discount. While nobody wants that pathway to come to life, it might allow MNKD to continue it's existence with some cash on hand to pursue other technosphere applications. But it all boils down to cash on hand or MNKD"s ability to get more loans, sell more shares, or get more money from al the ATM machine. Without a good supply of fresh capital, MNKD's options are severely limited. Last big option is that MNKD simply gets bought for face value. Investors take it on the chin but the product lives on to fight another day. I think of it this way - science is what allows the bridge to be designed but it's money that gets it built. - belief and a big sense of adventure (and hope of riches) is what drove Europeans to the new world but it was currency that paid for the ships, the crews, and the supplies to get them there. My point is that the phrase "cash is king" is like glue throughout the ages because it's true. Ideas, inventions, discoveries are what makes living worthwhile (well, so does sex, drugs and rock-n-roll but that's another forum...lol) but it's cash that gets things done. But both are necessary in this world and MNKD is running out of cash. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 17:47:22 GMT -5
I think we all understand what you have said and agree BUT the question stands IF SNY is "neglecting" [or "sandbagging"] Afrezza, what choice does MNKS have? Would it be preferable for them to just continue to sit on their hands and hope that SNY has a change of heart? Or would your position just be that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place - better the devil we know...? ah, ok. Brain was working in a different direction. SNY is not serving MNKD's interest so far. But given MNKD's cash position and assuming no new infusions, MNKD has no choice but to ride this out so I don't see MNKD dumping SNY. If SNY is sandbagging afrezza, what choice does MNKD have going forward? The answer imho of course is rooted in cash. Follow with me for a second - if MNKD had plenty of cash on hand they could go it alone or they could ride it out a bit until they secured a new partner. Cash is key for either option. If SNY bailed, Al might put some cash into MNKD just so they could negotiate from a position of security rather than a hail mary. But what if SNY bails and al does not inject a significant amount of cash into MNKD? Well, back to basics. MNKD needs cash but without cash MNKD will spiral downward quickly and in that situation it will go BK or sell off assets like afrezza for a major discount. While nobody wants that pathway to come to life, it might allow MNKD to continue it's existence with some cash on hand to pursue other technosphere applications. But it all boils down to cash on hand or MNKD"s ability to get more loans, sell more shares, or get more money from al the ATM machine. Without a good supply of fresh capital, MNKD's options are severely limited. Last big option is that MNKD simply gets bought for face value. Investors take it on the chin but the product lives on to fight another day. I think of it this way - science is what allows the bridge to be designed but it's money that gets it built. - belief and a big sense of adventure (and hope of riches) is what drove Europeans to the new world but it was currency that paid for the ships, the crews, and the supplies to get them there. My point is that the phrase "cash is king" is like glue throughout the ages because it's true. Ideas, inventions, discoveries are what makes living worthwhile (well, so does sex, drugs and rock-n-roll but that's another forum...lol) but it's cash that gets things done. But both are necessary in this world and MNKD is running out of cash. let's not forget that 50% of new European arrivals in the US died in the first winter from starvation. Also, I don't think anyone here can anticipate what "Al" is going to do, or if he even cares anymore. He wanted to get his product approved and in the hands of patients and succeeded. He allowed Bank of America to lend shares. Nobody, nobody is perfect. The chart is abysmal and the short interest is overwhelming www.shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=mnkdBorderline criminal activities are now, and continue to be in progress, at least as far as I can tell. If it's not illegal shorting, then it's trading on insider information. Sorry to digress from the love fest, but people are losing money here, Matt. |
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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 17:48:59 GMT -5
I think we all understand what you have said and agree BUT the question stands IF SNY is "neglecting" [or "sandbagging"] Afrezza, what choice does MNKS have? Would it be preferable for them to just continue to sit on their hands and hope that SNY has a change of heart? Or would your position just be that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place - better the devil we know...?
- science is what allows the bridge to be designed but it's money that gets it built.
- belief and a big sense of adventure (and hope of riches) is what drove Europeans to the new world but it was currency that paid for the ships, the crews, and the supplies to get them there.
My point is that the phrase "cash is king" is like glue throughout the ages because it's true. Ideas, inventions, discoveries are what makes living worthwhile (well, so does sex, drugs and rock-n-roll but that's another forum...lol) but it's cash that gets things done. But both are necessary in this world and MNKD is running out of cash.Well said, its all about the cold hard cash right now, I know Al still has wiggle room left to raise cash to prevent insolvency, its just a matter of what sort of equity position will shareholders be in once it is all said and done? I don't know what's worse, staying at this current PPS for a while longer and waiting to see what SNY does or dilution which may better our long term survival outlook on our own but leave us with an equivalently low PPS. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 17:55:27 GMT -5
I think of it this way
- science is what allows the bridge to be designed but it's money that gets it built.
- belief and a big sense of adventure (and hope of riches) is what drove Europeans to the new world but it was currency that paid for the ships, the crews, and the supplies to get them there.
My point is that the phrase "cash is king" is like glue throughout the ages because it's true. Ideas, inventions, discoveries are what makes living worthwhile (well, so does sex, drugs and rock-n-roll but that's another forum...lol) but it's cash that gets things done. But both are necessary in this world and MNKD is running out of cash. Well said, its all about the cold hard cash right now, I know Al still has wiggle room left to raise cash to prevent insolvency, its just a matter of what sort of equity position will shareholders be in once it is all said and done? I don't know what's worse, staying at this current PPS for a while longer and waiting to see what SNY does or dilution which may better our long term survival outlook on our own but leave us with an equivalently low PPS. Wiggle room like the TASE offering? Sorry there are bigger forces at work. Nice try though (am speaking to the proprietors of the MNKD establishment) I truly wonder what the Israelis are saying now. I do know what at least some Germans are saying mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4334/social-media-mnkd-discussion-germany?page=1&scrollTo=50559 |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2015 18:12:13 GMT -5
The tase offering could have provided what was needed but, well, at least it bought another quarter or so. It was predictable though given what mnkd had to do to settle the convertibles in august. Having to shell out that much cash at this stage undoubtedly had matt and hakan drinking shots trying to calm the nerves.
In my opinion the Israelis got screwed over and they knew it. Forcing anyone to pick up shares that are as speculative as they come doesn't make for new friends.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 18:17:41 GMT -5
The tase offering could have provided what was needed but, well, at least it bought another quarter or so. It was predictable though given what mnkd had to do to settle the convertibles in august. Having to shell out that much cash at this stage undoubtedly had matt and hakan drinking shots trying to calm the nerves. In my opinion the Israelis got screwed over and they knew it. Forcing anyone to pick up shares that are as speculative as they come doesn't make for new friends. So that's why only 15 mm shares were sold there? Wow... and then the ETF rebalancing here after that. I have to say, ETFs are at least liquid enough, if what you say is true, the smarter ones would get out of those because they didn't agree. Thanks for having the courage to speak here. There is too much confirmation bias. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 7, 2015 18:21:14 GMT -5
The tase offering could have provided what was needed but, well, at least it bought another quarter or so. It was predictable though given what mnkd had to do to settle the convertibles in august. Having to shell out that much cash at this stage undoubtedly had matt and hakan drinking shots trying to calm the nerves. In my opinion the Israelis got screwed over and they knew it. Forcing anyone to pick up shares that are as speculative as they come doesn't make for new friends. I wouldn't doubt this could lead to some rule changes regarding listings and indexes in Israel unless MNKD recovers reasonably quickly. |
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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 18:24:26 GMT -5
The tase offering could have provided what was needed but, well, at least it bought another quarter or so. It was predictable though given what mnkd had to do to settle the convertibles in august. Having to shell out that much cash at this stage undoubtedly had matt and hakan drinking shots trying to calm the nerves. In my opinion the Israelis got screwed over and they knew it. Forcing anyone to pick up shares that are as speculative as they come doesn't make for new friends. I hope Israeli retails don't start jumping on the short bandwagon adding fuel to the fire. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 18:25:36 GMT -5
The tase offering could have provided what was needed but, well, at least it bought another quarter or so. It was predictable though given what mnkd had to do to settle the convertibles in august. Having to shell out that much cash at this stage undoubtedly had matt and hakan drinking shots trying to calm the nerves. In my opinion the Israelis got screwed over and they knew it. Forcing anyone to pick up shares that are as speculative as they come doesn't make for new friends. I wouldn't doubt this could lead to some rule changes regarding listings and indexes in Israel unless MNKD recovers reasonably quickly. yeah, seems so underhanded. Al has a good reputation in Israel, I can't believe he would willing do something like this. Is there anyone in mgmt that's really in control? Hey BTW, climate change protestors being hauled off by plainclothes cops in Europe |
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