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Post by longinvstr on Dec 7, 2015 18:26:35 GMT -5
The tase offering could have provided what was needed but, well, at least it bought another quarter or so. It was predictable though given what mnkd had to do to settle the convertibles in august. Having to shell out that much cash at this stage undoubtedly had matt and hakan drinking shots trying to calm the nerves. In my opinion the Israelis got screwed over and they knew it. Forcing anyone to pick up shares that are as speculative as they come doesn't make for new friends. I wouldn't doubt this could lead to some rule changes regarding listings and indexes in Israel unless MNKD recovers reasonably quickly. I believe rule changes are already in the works |
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Post by longinvstr on Dec 7, 2015 18:30:44 GMT -5
I think we all understand what you have said and agree BUT the question stands IF SNY is "neglecting" [or "sandbagging"] Afrezza, what choice does MNKS have? Would it be preferable for them to just continue to sit on their hands and hope that SNY has a change of heart? Or would your position just be that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place - better the devil we know...? ah, ok. Brain was working in a different direction. SNY is not serving MNKD's interest so far. But given MNKD's cash position and assuming no new infusions, MNKD has no choice but to ride this out so I don't see MNKD dumping SNY. If SNY is sandbagging afrezza, what choice does MNKD have going forward? The answer imho of course is rooted in cash. Follow with me for a second - if MNKD had plenty of cash on hand they could go it alone or they could ride it out a bit until they secured a new partner. Cash is key for either option. If SNY bailed, Al might put some cash into MNKD just so they could negotiate from a position of security rather than a hail mary. But what if SNY bails and al does not inject a significant amount of cash into MNKD? Well, back to basics. MNKD needs cash but without cash MNKD will spiral downward quickly and in that situation it will go BK or sell off assets like afrezza for a major discount. While nobody wants that pathway to come to life, it might allow MNKD to continue it's existence with some cash on hand to pursue other technosphere applications. But it all boils down to cash on hand or MNKD"s ability to get more loans, sell more shares, or get more money from al the ATM machine. Without a good supply of fresh capital, MNKD's options are severely limited. Last big option is that MNKD simply gets bought for face value. Investors take it on the chin but the product lives on to fight another day. I think of it this way - science is what allows the bridge to be designed but it's money that gets it built. - belief and a big sense of adventure (and hope of riches) is what drove Europeans to the new world but it was currency that paid for the ships, the crews, and the supplies to get them there. My point is that the phrase "cash is king" is like glue throughout the ages because it's true. Ideas, inventions, discoveries are what makes living worthwhile (well, so does sex, drugs and rock-n-roll but that's another forum...lol) but it's cash that gets things done. But both are necessary in this world and MNKD is running out of cash. I'd like to think that, if we're choosing to cut ties w/ SNY, a new partner w/ deep pockets is pre-negotiated, has a sign-on bonus w/ pre-dated check written and can hit the ground running on day 2. Notice: I did not use the word "hope." |
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Post by kball on Dec 7, 2015 18:37:44 GMT -5
ah, ok. Brain was working in a different direction. SNY is not serving MNKD's interest so far. But given MNKD's cash position and assuming no new infusions, MNKD has no choice but to ride this out so I don't see MNKD dumping SNY. My point is that the phrase "cash is king" is like glue throughout the ages because it's true. Ideas, inventions, discoveries are what makes living worthwhile (well, so does sex, drugs and rock-n-roll but that's another forum...lol) but it's cash that gets things done. But both are necessary in this world and MNKD is running out of cash. "If" that were the case, would not the market know it? Not us...the market? A stabilized or increasing stock price. We would merely speculate SNY has put more effort in or 1 more ad was spotted somewhere. I'm not confused at all. Embarrassed, yeah Ashamed, sure Poorer, no question Confused, no |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 18:42:22 GMT -5
I'd like to think that, if we're choosing to cut ties w/ SNY, a new partner w/ deep pockets is pre-negotiated, has a sign-on bonus w/ pre-dated check written and can hit the ground running on day 2. Notice: I did not use the word "hope." "If" that were the case, would not the market know it? Not us...the market? A stabilized or increasing stock price. We would merely speculate SNY has put more effort in or 1 more ad was spotted somewhere. I'm not confused at all. Embarrassed, yeah Ashamed, sure Poorer, no question Confused, no Nice scowl, kball like your profile pic At least you are not a protestor in Paris... one word about climate change and you would be hauled off... was live on TV earlier... France is not all of the romantic and possibly naiive things we think of it apparently |
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Post by compound26 on Dec 7, 2015 18:46:57 GMT -5
Let's stay cool. Things are not that bad. The only thing that is bad right now is the PPS. But someone mentioned the other day that Regeneron was down from $26 to $4.6 (or something like that) when it started to partner with Sanofi. Now it is at $546 (as of today). The Afrezza ramp up is slow. But I think if we reach $10-15 million a quarter 12 months from now, then by all means the ramp up is probably 12 months behind the original schedule. That is ok. And whether Sanofi continues to partner with Mannkind (which in all likelihood it will) or Mannkind does it by itself or partner with another BP, the above timeline will be achievable under all these circumstances. Sanofi has already laid the foundation and did the initial marketing. So the existing prescribing doctors will continue to prescribe and the existing user will continue to use. And new users will join the user group gradually. So it appears we will need 2-3 quarters of additional funds, at current rate of cash burn, that will be around $50/60-75/90 million, which may be covered by a TS partnership upfront, debt financing, Sanofi milestone, a second offering, or a combination of them. So there may be some dilution, but I do not expect any significant dilution.As I stated before, we know that pursuant to this article (published in 1995), for Minimed, they started to sell insulin pump in 1985 and in 1990, their annual sales were still at $12.5 million. So five years after launch, Minimed’s annual sales of insulin pump was $12.5 million. Yet, we know that, in the end, Al succeeded in turning insulin pump into a viable option for diabetics. It appears Afrezza’s first year of launch probably will achieve sales of around $10 million, about equal to Minimed’s sales of insulin pump in the sixth year into launch. Quoting the article, “ it's hard to conceive of a more difficult product to develop and market: The pumps must be virtually flawless because their users' health depends on their reliability. But their sales are complicated by their cost--about $4,000 per pump--doctors' skepticism, and the reluctance of diabetics themselves to change their lifestyles.” All the above statements sound familiar? |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 18:54:27 GMT -5
compound26 At the current rate of share price disintegration, we will arrive at Goldman's (possibly self-fulfilling) prophecy very soon, $1 I would not compare this to insulin pump. Insulin pumps already exist, how could you compare the novelty of an insulin pump when none existed before to the dreamboat inhaler. The facts of the matter are that other inhalers exist. The Dreamboat might have been very great a few years ago but you get a decay in novelty over time. Even Sanofi has something apparently better in the works with a metered inhaler. We should stop being cheerleaders.... face the reality, sometimes you fall into unrequited love and that drives people into total insanity or war... Discuss pros and cons. It is SNY and MNKD who should have the PR people and investors relations.
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Post by compound26 on Dec 7, 2015 19:12:05 GMT -5
compound26 At the current rate of share price disintegration, we will arrive at Goldman's (possibly self-fulfilling) prophecy very soon, $1 I would not compare this to insulin pump. Insulin pumps already exist, how could you compare the novelty of an insulin pump when none existed before to the dreamboat inhaler. The facts of the matter are that other inhalers exist. The Dreamboat might have been very great a few years ago but you get a decay in novelty over time. Even Sanofi has something apparently better in the works with a metered inhaler. We should stop being cheerleaders.... face the reality, sometimes you fall into unrequited love and that drives people into total insanity or war... Discuss pros and cons. It is SNY and MNKD who should have the PR people and investors relations. mssciguy, I do not think the Sanofi inhaler device is better. It is definitely more complex. It allows metered dosage. But whether that is better than fixed dosage, it is debatable. Especially, Afrezza acts like a signal (phase 1 and 2). Think about users in their 70s and 80s and that need to use the meters to get the precise metered dosage each time. That may be considered an inconvenience to them. On the SEC, although I hate the short sellers and manipulators, the possibility is basically zero for SEC to take any meaningful actions to help us. Their action and response time is measured in years not days. And they seldom respond to any pleas of individuals. At least that is my impression after reading: Fooling Some of the People All of the Time, A Long Short (and Now Complete) Story and Confidence Game: How Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman Called Wall Street's Bluff. That's why even Al Mann cannot do anything to Martin Shkreli. You will bet Al Mann hate this guy. |
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Post by compound26 on Dec 7, 2015 19:17:16 GMT -5
compound26 ... the question isn't whether Afrezza could ultimately become successful if the deal with SNY fell apart. The question is whether MNKD shareholders would still have any equity left at that point... at least that is the question that worries me most. Granted I'd hate to see Afrezza die as a product, but my main concern has to be my own investment. I would expect some dilution, but not significant. |
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Post by compound26 on Dec 7, 2015 19:19:38 GMT -5
I'll buy when one or more insiders buys at market price. If the company is working on any deal (say a TS deal that is close to agreement) or any negotiation with a BP, the insiders probably will be prevented from buying even though they know the shares are cheap now. |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 19:46:32 GMT -5
compound26 At the current rate of share price disintegration, we will arrive at Goldman's (possibly self-fulfilling) prophecy very soon, $1 I would not compare this to insulin pump. Insulin pumps already exist, how could you compare the novelty of an insulin pump when none existed before to the dreamboat inhaler. The facts of the matter are that other inhalers exist. The Dreamboat might have been very great a few years ago but you get a decay in novelty over time. Even Sanofi has something apparently better in the works with a metered inhaler. We should stop being cheerleaders.... face the reality, sometimes you fall into unrequited love and that drives people into total insanity or war... Discuss pros and cons. It is SNY and MNKD who should have the PR people and investors relations. mssciguy, I do not think the Sanofi inhaler device is better. It is definitely more complex. It allows metered dosage. But whether that is better than fixed dosage, it is debatable. Especially, Afrezza acts like a signal (phase 1 and 2). Think about users in their 70s and 80s and that need to use the meters to get the precise metered dosage each time. That may be considered an inconvenience to them. On the SEC, although I hate the short sellers and manipulators, the possibility is basically zero for SEC to take any meaningful actions to help us. Their action and response time is measured in years not days. And they seldom respond to any pleas of individuals. At least that is my impression after reading: Fooling Some of the People All of the Time, A Long Short (and Now Complete) Story and Confidence Game: How Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman Called Wall Street's Bluff. That's why even Al Mann cannot do anything to Martin Shkreli. You will bet Al Mann hate this guy. What you say about complexity is true. That's maybe why Dexcom, Google, SNY are so cosy. Maybe it's the Dreamboat that is a relic. Actually, a metered inhaler makes more sense if the right data can be fed to it... Unhappily, FDA or other parties may have boxed MNKD into these 4, 8, 12 unit deals... and you have to have an IQ over 100 to figure it out. By definition, that excludes half the population, right? |
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Post by falconquest on Dec 7, 2015 20:11:59 GMT -5
Actually that string of posts from Nate Pile makes me nervous. One of the strongest advocates of MNKD is now raising possibility that MNKD will walk from SNY as potentially positive, throwing forth Google connection and making the unsubstantiated claim that tangible insurance improvement has been seen... seems like he is merely posting every hope based long argument from YMB. What we have here is hundreds, even a thousand, retail holders, completely left in the dark (or as the Germans say on their board, left in the rain) by mgmt, a very captive audience watching their accounts dwindle in value in a very programmed kind of way. Sadly, I have seen this before, more than once. What happens is that when the shorts are in control, they can steer the price down over a long period of time, shorting, then buying, then selling, then shorting--- they are milking this stock for multiples of the current market cap. How are all of our lenders doing? Still "averaging down" with all that interest? We need to walk. Unless Brandicourt has some great plan up his sleeve, Al needs to move on and get a new player involved. Who that might be is unknown but I could sell more Afrezza than Sanofi! If there is a "plan" Mannkind investors deserve to know just what it is. If it's a buyout then get on with it. I've grown weary of this. My gosh they have the greatest treatment for diabetes EVER and they're not properly promoting it. Who does that? |
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 20:22:37 GMT -5
What we have here is hundreds, even a thousand, retail holders, completely left in the dark (or as the Germans say on their board, left in the rain) by mgmt, a very captive audience watching their accounts dwindle in value in a very programmed kind of way. Sadly, I have seen this before, more than once. What happens is that when the shorts are in control, they can steer the price down over a long period of time, shorting, then buying, then selling, then shorting--- they are milking this stock for multiples of the current market cap. How are all of our lenders doing? Still "averaging down" with all that interest? We need to walk. Unless Brandicourt has some great plan up his sleeve, Al needs to move on and get a new player involved. Who that might be is unknown but I could sell more Afrezza than Sanofi! If there is a "plan" Mannkind investors deserve to know just what it is. If it's a buyout then get on with it. I've grown weary of this. My gosh they have the greatest treatment for diabetes EVER and they're not properly promoting it. Who does that? I hope that Al has the energy for it. I just parted with my father at Al's age. Things go downhill very very fast sometimes. Need a sensible but testosterone fueled man or woman who knows the business but NO MORE HOPIUM. We are all intelligent enough to recognize the symptoms. Very comfy mgmt, unrehearsed conference calls, slips of the tongue, come on, you can't blame others for your mistakes. I take full responsibilty for my decision to put money in here, I have suffered, you have suffered, everyone except for some people at the top. Who dropped the ball? The team did. Al has provided for this company like the Fed did for the bankers recently over the past 7 years--- the people at the top did very well, everyone else is hurting. There should NOT be any more dilutions. Start cutting until they start working, or sell the place off. No effective management here that is on display. Oh, is that a secret too? |
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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 20:47:03 GMT -5
mssciguy condolences for your loss, I think living to Al's age alone is a victory worth sharing.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 7, 2015 20:52:29 GMT -5
jeremg I spent a few months total, off and on, in elder care with my father, who passed just a few months ago at Al's age. I learned a lot which I'll never share, it would not make sense. I can tell you that what matters at that age does not involve what many here would like to think. Just because he said at one point, "Shareholders will be very happy" nobody, nobody can hold him to that now. Unless there is some pot of gold at the end of the GSCO/Renaissance/Tourbillion hedge front assault involving borderline organized crime. I'll save some money for the shareholder's meeting. The more of us that show up, the better. Hotels in Connecticut must be expensive though... why DID they choose Conn? Suddenly, the fog is lifting..
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Post by bullofwallstreet on Dec 7, 2015 21:59:06 GMT -5
another thing that has me way off and confused , is that the interest rate for loaning shares has drop significantly yet the pps has dropped significantly after the interest rate dropped shouldn't the pps raise since the shorts where covering aka "buying" shares on market to cover?
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