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Post by trenddiver on Dec 4, 2015 1:49:22 GMT -5
Evening--my first thought would be they don't want to tip their hand to Sanofi as to the options they are considering...especially if such info might lessen or possibly worsen their already weak negotiating position w Sanofi. In all likelihood there are no negotiations occurring between MNKD and SNY. I'm not sure that is factual, but negotiations maybe occurring sooner than you think. |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:45:48 GMT -5
trenddiver both EYES and MNKD have pathetic stock price valuations lately. Is it a coincidence? Should Al hire a communications consultant? The year is 2015 and stuff like website, social media presence, press releases, events are normal even for the smallest businesses. On the bright side, you got in at a great price. I bought more a few times during the past couple of weeks. While at the gym I read the ymb and ST ... seems that Renaissance may be in control with algos and the "gang of 05" whatever that is, has lot sizes ending in 5s whenever the really serious HFT kicks in. Those HFT companies don't have a day without profits. They always win. My personal theory is they know Al and his companies make the perfect target for exploiting. It's like what we saw today, they let the price drift up over a few days and then empty the pot again of new riches [today], they have done this with Al on a much grander scale. He has really lost the most here (on paper) but as opposed to letting their games end with BK whereby they move on to the next target, Al keeps sweetening the pot for them and they keep coming back to feed knowing he'll keep the game in play. It's really a shame that Al has been the greatest victim here; if he had been in his prime, he may have nipped this in the bud before it got to this point. Two things can stop this bleeding: 1) Afrezza exponential script growth - successful commercialization (this falls to SNY) or 2) Technosphere partnership with upfront $. Until then the games are in full swing and it's really one-sided, as far as we can see SNY and MNKD never left the locker room.I agree that Mannkind may have been taken advantage of in the negotiation with Sanofi, but that's water under the bridge. But for the screw job, Mannkind has received $200 million plus - up front, plus $80 million in Sanofi money during the last year for the launch expenses, plus one good year of learning experience. I don't think Al views himself as a victim, but he's certainly pissed off and that is probably the reason that Hakan got axed. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:38:13 GMT -5
Honestly, if SNY doesn't take Afrezza at this point, I will be extremely concerned. It means they don't think they can market it and it's not worth their investment. As I said in another thread, SNY needs something big. If they choose to cut ties with us, that cannot be viewed as a positive. It may still work out that way if we somehow get another partner to sign on, but that may prove to be difficult if SNY did all their metrics and found us invaluable. You don't buy a partner without doing your research. MNKD will have to show a new partner why/where SNY failed. To answer your question, though, I'm still waiting for a firm commitment from SNY before I get excited. I don't see it that way and am not worried in the least bit about whether Sanofi remains a partner or any other BP wants to be a partner. I believe that Al will put together a team that can successfully produce, distribute and market Afrezza. If I'm not mistaken, that was Al's original plan. Anyhow, I'm a contrarian investor, and like the risk/reward at this time. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:30:43 GMT -5
trenddiver both EYES and MNKD have pathetic stock price valuations lately. Is it a coincidence? Should Al hire a communications consultant? The year is 2015 and stuff like website, social media presence, press releases, events are normal even for the smallest businesses. On the bright side, you got in at a great price. I bought more a few times during the past couple of weeks. While at the gym I read the ymb and ST ... seems that Renaissance may be in control with algos and the "gang of 05" whatever that is, has lot sizes ending in 5s whenever the really serious HFT kicks in. Those HFT companies don't have a day without profits. They always win. You gotta hand it to those shortsiders, they really know how to work it. That being sad, Mandkond isn't going to ZERO, thus for me it's a low risk buy. I can only lose $2.00 a share. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 3, 2015 18:05:12 GMT -5
As most of you know, who follow my posts, I have dealt out more than my share of criticism of Mannkind and its management. However for the first time in a while I have to say I'm getting bullish on Mannkind. I think most of the bad news is out and good things are happening. Although there are still headwinds out there, I am confident that with Al back in the drivers seat, we have an experienced captain to steer the ship in these rough waters. I am very confident that Mannkind will always have sufficient capital (thru loans or equity raise) to survive. There is NO CHANCE of bankruptcy - NONE. There will be dilution, but as little as possible because of management's anti dilution sentiment.
I also believe that Mannkind's is prepared to take back Afrezza, if Sanofi stupidly decides to "spit the hook". In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Al wants Afrezza back and tells Sanofi "either sh*t or get off the pot". Either way, it will be good for Afrezza.
I'm not saying that Sanofi isn't doing a good job, I'm sure that Afrezza presents a lot challenges and Sanofi is doing this launch the best they can, the way they know how. It's just that we shareholders and possibly Mannkind are impatient because we are seeing the share price erode along with Mannkind's cash balances. Also they probably aren't a great partner in the sense that Al is usually used to getting things done his way - in his timeframe. I also think that because of the headwinds (primarily insurance coverage) Sanofi is not spending the kind of money that Mannkind would like to see spent. We'll see what happens in the first quarter when the 2016 formularies go into effect. If Mannkind prevails in its discussions with Sanofi, We might see some more DTC including television soon.
We should start seeing some good news on the Technosphere front. I'm hoping in the next quarter, we start getting some announcements. Could Mannkind be thinking of spinning off Technosphere to a separate public entity? It seems like a logical way to go.
In conclusion, I'm going to be buying between now and the end of the year. I'm expecting that the SP might be under pressure because of tax loss selling, but on the other hand, some of these short hedge funds might want to take some profits to show good 2015 results to their investors and so we might see some upward movement as a result of short covering buying pressure. Either way I view this as a low risk buy similar to Oct/Nov 2012 and I'll be adding to my position. Hope I have company.
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 2, 2015 11:36:37 GMT -5
Could shorts have gotten wind of the big surprise coming their way?
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 2, 2015 10:32:53 GMT -5
Everything is falling into place for Sanofi to apply for EU approval. I Don't see any reason not to. The global rollout is like playing Chess. The U.S. pricing is the current benchmark for the rest of the world for Afrezza. The EU tends to have the lowest prices. Middle East would use the U.S. pricing benchmark unless AFREZZA was EU approved and then many countries would use the EU benchmark. Many countries only need FDA approval and SNY can start marketing. The sequence of country's rollout makes a difference in pricing for the world. Obama, I think you are on to something here. Sanofi is obviously taking the long view about pricing knowing that U.S. pricing is very critical in determining the rest of the world pricing, hence the higher U.S. prices for now even though this might be somewhat a negative with U.S. formulary negotiations. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 2, 2015 2:19:57 GMT -5
Of course the fundamental point being the required return to the cap markets for funding by early q3 16 nearly a full year before the contract with sanofi ends and way before Afrezza is profitable. It also implies a burn rate probably even closer to $8m a month which leaves just about $0 for TS R&D between now and then. Seriously, is this the time to place TS on the shelf again. I thought we were testing products in house for partnership. Either way we hardly can fund a thing between now and q3 What are you talking about? There is no specified end date to the Sanofi contract. It can be terminated with certain notice given by Sanofi after January 1, 2016. |
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 2, 2015 1:02:59 GMT -5
please explain the cash position. Most were under the assumption that dilution of the ATMs/LOC money could bring in another $68m in addition to the $60m they have with the Israeli money....they need $25m minimum in the bank at all times to operate....so we are talking about a 30+m share dilution in the near future that will leave us with $103m in operating money at an $9m burn rate...so we can survive till Dec 2016.......yet you say 2017? Dec 2016 or Jan 2017 - it's basicly the same thing. The point I was making is that operating cash for the next year is not an issue. Also, if sales are not materializing early on 2016, I am sure there are many other opportunities to cut expenses even further thereby reducing cash burn. I would have to agree with you. I would think that unless there is a huge uptick in scripts, Mannkind will have to make further headcount cuts to reduce negative cash flow.
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 1, 2015 19:43:23 GMT -5
I don't really want MNKD management spending time dismissing rumors that the partnership is going to break up. There are obvious reasons they shouldn't do this. In the cases where they do address this (Q3 2015 ER CC), they are resolute in their message. I don't want them spending time addressing rumors either. I want them spending time discussing the future for the partnership and what is being done to make Afrezza a successful product... that would naturally leave no room for breakup speculation and thus no need to specifically address it. You wouldn't have an analyst asking about a breakup in a conference call if the public stance of SNY and MNKD were such that an analyst would look silly and or acting with an agenda by posing the question. Currently, posing that question seems reasonable to all too many. stevil ... specific sales projections probably would not be (or have been) wise. At this point I think SNY needs to be publicly more supportive to show the medical community that they are behind Afrezza for the long haul. I've never expected them to be motivated to show public support in a way that is aimed at helping MNKD shareholders. Don't expect Sanofi to say anything about Afrezza, especially for the benefit of Mannkind or the medical community. This is just not their style. |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 30, 2015 11:48:58 GMT -5
12.2 Termination by the Parties. (a) Termination for Material Breach. In the event that either Party shall be in material breach in the performance of any of its obligations under this Agreement (the “Breaching Party”), in addition to any other right and remedy the other Party (the “Complaining Party”) may have, the Complaining Party may terminate this Agreement by giving notice in writing specifying the breach and its claim of right to terminate; provided, however, that if the breach is remediable, the Breaching Party shall have ninety (90) days (or forty-five (45) days for any payment breach) (the “Notice Period”) to rectify the breach and termination shall become effective at the end of the Notice Period only if the Breaching Party fails to cure the breach complained about during (i) the Notice Period or, (ii) if such breach (other than any payment breach) has not been cured within such 90-day period, if the Breaching Party has commenced actions to cure such breach within the Notice Period and thereafter uses reasonable efforts to cure such breach, such longer period as is reasonably required to cure such breach, but in any event, not to exceed ninety (90) days following expiration of the Notice Period; provided further, that, if Sanofi is the Breaching Party and the breach is with respect to Sanofi’s failure to comply with its obligation to use Commercially Reasonable Efforts with respect to (x) the United States, MannKind may terminate this Agreement in its entirety, and (y) any Major Market (other than the United States) or […***…] Country, MannKind may terminate this Agreement only with respect to such Major Market or […***…] Country (as applicable) and not in its entirety. If the Breaching Party disputes in good faith that it has materially breached one of... I'd say based on that provision of the contract, if MNKD feels that SNY hasn't lived up to what they expected with respect to Afrezza's marketing, they have an out. Granted nobody knows what was agreed to in reference to "Commercially Reasonable Efforts" and the big "x" is labeled as confidential, but from the basic look of it, MNKD could make the argument to terminate I believe. It would likely have to navigate the 90-day period for SNY to potentially address any perceived shortfalls. I'm no lawyer but on the verbiage alone, I think MNKD could make a good argument for termination. The problem is that MNKD agreed to work via the "joint committee" to resolve all disputes. Per the agreement, the final decision regarding any dispute is left to the Sanofi co-chairman of that committee, and you realize, of course, how he will vote. I doubt that there's much legal recourse given that agreement. In addition, if Sanofi challenges Mannkind's assertions, there is a legal process that will have to play itself out which could be very expensive and could take years. If that happens, Afrezza will at best just limp along or worse just die on the vine. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 29, 2015 23:00:26 GMT -5
There were execs who leaked Trade secret after leaving the company and signing NDA, non-competing agreement. They much less likely leak if still employed. On the other hand, keeping Hakan around allows him full access to any "trade secret" MNKD might possess or develop. Knowing for sure that he will be unemployed in a year and a half might provide Hakan motivation to utilize that access in his search for a new job or as a means of seeking other financial security. Thumbs down! |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 29, 2015 17:01:54 GMT -5
Based on the tone of the board, I sense that capitulation is near and we should begin seeing shorts starting to cover.
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 29, 2015 1:22:14 GMT -5
Rockstarrick, Do you have anything concrete to back up ridiculous speculation that you put forth on this board? Did you learn your trade on the YMB? Utter nonsense Trend Opinions vary trend, and your opinion of me or my rediculous speculation means nothing to me. I don't need you, or anybody else for that matter, trying to convince me that I am right or wrong. You don't know anything more than me, you just think you do. Thats the difference. I think we've beat this drum long enough. Good Luck to all See you on the other side. Rock, I don't have any opinion of you personally, only your post regarding this being a temporary agreement. You know there is a big difference between one's opinion of a situation or a set of facts and someone speculating about what the facts are. And yes I agree with you that we've beat this drum long enough. Hope we meet on the other side. Trend |
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Post by trenddiver on Nov 28, 2015 21:13:28 GMT -5
No, as I stated in an earlier post, I believe Sanofi is test driving afrezza to see if it works as well as Al believes. I also believe the 65/35 split was a temporary agreement for the length of the test drive, hopefully 2016, very likely 2017. Rockstarrick, Do you have anything concrete to back up ridiculous speculation that you put forth on this board? Did you learn your trade on the YMB? Utter nonsense Trend |
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