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Post by stevil on Dec 7, 2015 9:00:43 GMT -5
Right? Man on a mission. Doesn't accept defeat. Each time a door shuts, he looks for a way around the wall.
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Post by stevil on Dec 6, 2015 16:47:26 GMT -5
First year med student. Still a looooooong way to go
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Post by stevil on Dec 6, 2015 15:39:08 GMT -5
Watch the video of the dedication to Alfred Mann, the Sanofi executive of North American Diabetes had plenty of praise for Al and Afrezza. How would you feel if I told you I'd give you a million dollars?
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Post by stevil on Dec 5, 2015 18:03:56 GMT -5
This makes me even more suspicious of Hakan being pushed aside though.
I can see Al barrelling through and telling him, "Get out of the way, I need to finish this before my time is up".
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Post by stevil on Dec 5, 2015 17:54:12 GMT -5
Also, between the story shared by the SNY guy and listening to Al speak, it's evident that Afrezza is Al's baby. He is so passionate about it that he talks everywhere he goes about it- even at a gala whose purpose was meant to congratulate and thank his wife and him. He turns the topic off of himself and directs it back to Afrezza.
I can also attest to the similarity between pancreas/Afrezza PK.
I was going to upload the graph that my class put together, but it don't look the same as it did in the classroom. My teacher compressed the chart to add to email, so unfortunately, it's not of much use. But in the classroom, it looked identical to what is posted online on afrezzapro.com
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Post by stevil on Dec 5, 2015 17:50:03 GMT -5
interesting comments around 12:37 til 13:30
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Post by stevil on Dec 5, 2015 12:43:33 GMT -5
While I have been critical of Sanofi, one thing I think they bring to the table vs Mannkind is better knowledge on how to price Afrezza from a global perspective. I think another thread on this board had indicated that pricing in the US serves as a proxy for the rest of the world - not dollar for dollar but as a benchmark to discount off of. Since Afrezza is so different and Sanofi's time to develop a launch plan was limited, I think they took the conservative route, threw Afrezza into the market and observed what happened. Now with some information / data under their belt, they will try to determine how much the market will pay for Afrezza. Some good information obtained from the San Francisco meetings as well and perhaps they put together a full go launch for 2016 and with additional information, it may need to be tweaked. Don't be shocked if advertising and promotion does not ramp until Q2. Marketing collateral has to make its way through legal / regulatory and then go into production and that is not an overnight process even if done at warp speed. DBC - you make some interesting comments on dose to dose pricing but the RAAs have been around so long, insurance companies have a pretty good idea how much patients will use. With Afrezza, not enough data to get to the same level of certainty (even though Afrezza is more consistent than RAAs) and I suspect patients using more than anticipated. It could be pricing needs to be adjusted a bit or something as simple as increasing certain box configurations by XX% cartridges to get to a more consistent rate of utilization per Rx filled. Apparently Novo is going for the rapid acting market now www.fiercebiotech.com/press-releases/novo-nordisk-files-regulatory-approval-faster-acting-insulin-aspart-eu-treaAll the things you say make sense, but the logical method is not necessarily the best method. This is an extremely competitive space with a lot of brand recognition and loyalty. Sanofi can and must move much faster. Likewise, MNKD must land a Technosphere deal to regain a little "Street cred" -- The wolf is at the door. No, I take that back, there is a whole pack of them, GSCO, Renaissance, AF, Shrek, Karp, not to mention possibly smarter and faster companies that also have particle inhalation technologies. Knock down the share price further, and it gets harder and harder to get financing and we're dead in the water or on the auction block. Let's hope that Sanofi decides as you suggest that Afrezza is cool and even sexy, and should have price parity with the injectables. We have the capacity to produce and distribute, just meet with the insurers and get it done, give them what they want. You can always raise the price later. THAT is how it works. Is Brandicourt asleep at the wheel? I think if MNKD were setting prices, you'd see them much more willing to budge. They're a new company in terms of brand recognition and I'm sure they'd gladly take a small hit on their first drug to gain popularity. Look at Toyota/Honda/Hyundai. They used to be the cheapest cars on the road. Still are the best bargain, but they gained their reputation by outperforming their competition at a smaller price. Al is a smart businessman and he knows that there is "an embarrassment of riches" waiting to be developed. The first one doesn't need to be a blockbuster, even if it should be. It'll likely be one if it deserves it, but there is even more potential sitting in the lab, just waiting to be developed and marketed. It doesn't do any good sitting there. I have to believe that SNY is the one holding things up. Again, I'll be really concerned if they choose to pass on Afrezza, because that will mean they don't see the potential that we think there is in it. But Al needs to do whatever he can to at least get the pipeline open so we can release blockbuster after blockbuster.
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 23:01:29 GMT -5
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 22:47:41 GMT -5
I think that's an Australian website though... not sure what .gov.au is... I think that means australia.
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 22:46:10 GMT -5
you can quote me, I'm a student doctor Haha, just kidding... Just do a quick google search. Type in "top causes of impotence" or "leading causes of Erectile Dysfunction". Not sure what kind of source you're looking for, whether it be a medical journal, or just something like a reputable magazine article.... I just did a quick google scholar search and it gave me this www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/conditionsandtreatments/diabetes-and-erectile-dysfunction
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 22:31:46 GMT -5
Word of mouth. 6 degrees of separation theory. Start telling everyone you know who will listen and is interested and who you can incite enough to get them to keep the train going. Diabetes is one of the leading causes for impotence. Start putting the ED fear into your diabetic buddies' heads!
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 19:18:13 GMT -5
Ugh, here I go again with the downer post haha. Oh well... someone has to I guess. I'll be that guy for now.
It's just as likely, if not more so, that the reason it's been so quiet is because nothing is happening...
I actually think with the extended explanation that I'm with Bill.
I do think SNY was multitasking and keeping options open. It makes sense to. It also may explain MNKD's frustration with SNY putzing around while they're ready to hit the ground running. SNY has MNKD locked in for now, so it makes sense that they can do whatever they want. If this scenario is valid, it eases my frustration with management because it would imply that SNY has not been forthcoming in their communication. SNY may have projected a certain plan that got them excited, then put Afrezza on the backburner, leaving Matt and Hakan with nothing to say other than "that's SNY's responsibility". That's about the most PC comment they can make. You don't bite the hand that feeds you. I'm inclined to believe that SNY has MNKD by the balls right now and there's little we can do about it than just wait and hope SNY decides to get serious.
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 18:41:36 GMT -5
There may not be many here who believe me, and I guess I don't blame them, but I'm not here to try to quell any optimism. In the last week we've gotten word of a top secret meeting in San Diego that may or may not be happening and people went from being doom and gloom to pie in the sky. We need to try to stay a little more even keel and stay rooted in facts.
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Post by stevil on Dec 4, 2015 18:32:44 GMT -5
I created the following post on YMB. It's an abbreviated version of the one I posted in the Time to Go Long thread. It seems to have gotten some good play there, so here's a link and the original text... tinyurl.com/gshrzbgSuppose SNY realized how effective Afrezza was back in the summer and that Al was right, all along. Suppose SNY then decided to place a premium price on it to help with future global pricing even though it would hamper insurance coverage and US sales in 2015--the results of which we've clearly seen. Suppose SNY planned on using the results from the two studies and the early adopters that are meeting in San Diego this weekend to create a full launch, improve insurance for 2016, and apply for better labeling in US and beyond--we are starting to see hints of improved insurance coverage. Suppose MNKD knew all this, but could only say they were happy with SNY, were pleased that SNY had significantly increased their marketing budget, thought SNY had a solid marketing plan, and that SNY was all over improving insurance coverage. Suppose the shorts knew that SNY and MNKD were going to be silent on all this until at least December. If the above is true then it's no wonder the shorts have been having a field day with MNKD's stock. However, I suspect SNY's true intentions will shortly be known. Of course, the above is still nothing more than guesses... Just to poke a few holes... Here are a few things off the top of my head that don't disprove, but leave me scratching my head if what you said above is true. Why did Hakan quit/get fired? It's rare to be so involved and then just disappear. I guess Matt was doing most of the talking and was the face of the company for the most part anyway, but if things were rosy, why did Al resume CEO? If all the dominoes were in place, why isn't a successor already appointed? Next, why did Matt say "we're not there yet" after being so optimistic the prior CC? Sure, you could say that he knew about a deal and was amped up at the time of the CC, but then he overcompensated on the next one by admitting he made a mistake with the "embarrassment of riches" comment. Then, the rushed and disorganized presentations (could have been due to the technical difficulties). Followed then by the "we're behind schedule from where we expected to be at this time". What you're proposing sounds like a purposeful, methodical plan. While it's still possible that you're right, I'd contend that the events that have transpired over the past 6 months don't point to a purposeful, methodical plan being executed. What I see is MNKD doing everything they can- i.e. opening up the 3rd line and then having to wait on their partner to uphold their end of the deal. I'm pretty sure a milestone payment was attached to that line, so that may have been the incentive to complete it so quickly, but all the evidence I see show SNY and MNKD being out of sync with each other. Sorry, didn't complete that thought. Why would MNKD rush so quickly to open up a 3rd line just to have it sit for 6+ months? It seemed like they were motivated and excited about a near term explosion, just based off the energy that seemed to come out after approval. On top of that, I still can't understand why SNY wouldn't also then buy in to MNKD so they didn't have to hurt their future potential by laying off so many of their R&D folk. SNY would want a strong partner to keep pumping out more drugs for them to partner on. I know there are some here that think MNKD may be stopping SNY from buying in, but really, would you rather lay off half the workforce rather than allowing a (trusted) partner to invest only 5% into your company? Things just don't add up to this... but I guess it's still possible. SNY may just be playing the bully and not caring at all about being a good partner to MNKD. They probably figure they'll get theirs either way.
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Post by stevil on Dec 3, 2015 18:19:43 GMT -5
Honestly, if SNY doesn't take Afrezza at this point, I will be extremely concerned. It means they don't think they can market it and it's not worth their investment.
As I said in another thread, SNY needs something big. If they choose to cut ties with us, that cannot be viewed as a positive. It may still work out that way if we somehow get another partner to sign on, but that may prove to be difficult if SNY did all their metrics and found us invaluable. You don't buy a partner without doing your research. MNKD will have to show a new partner why/where SNY failed.
To answer your question, though, I'm still waiting for a firm commitment from SNY before I get excited.
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