|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 13:41:27 GMT -5
haha he does have a skill with encrypted writing. I'm surprised he doesn't have a law degree...
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 13:26:34 GMT -5
Ya, that didn't sound good to me either. The only time you don't let information out is when that information isn't good. If there was good news to share, there wouldn't be opposition to communication.
Wondering why there would need to be an "excuse" to let info out. Wonder if that's in regards to SNY?
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 13:14:49 GMT -5
.jpg - This tanks 5-10% per day. If huge funds/institutions/etc believed in this company, they would be buying at these levels hand over fist. They are not. I don't believe Al Mann has an ace up his sleeve or any Plan B for next year. Thus I think the worst news is just around the corner in the coming months. I'm so upset that diabetics won't {?} be able to experience Afrezza after 2016. I'm long and beyond pissed off that as the PPS dwindles, the silence from MannKind and Sanofi is deafening. This part is extremely disheartening. I thought we had huge support at $2. It got tested a few times and bounced off of it several times. There doesn't appear to be any support in sight right now, which may be indicative of some really bad news. Tax selling shouldn't not be able to drive levels down this far. Those shares should be getting scooped up.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 13:08:37 GMT -5
Truth be told, Afrezza is as good as it gets, scientifically speaking, unless it proves to cause cancer or has other unknown side effects- which it shouldn't.
As far as PK goes, nothing will ever be able to improve. You can't get any better than natural insulin acting exactly as the pancreas does. As Al said in his video, he couldn't even squeeze a piece of paper between the PK profile of Afrezza and the pancreas. They're identical.
The only way anyone can improve on insulin is if they find a way to automate it so that people don't have to think about administering it. Short of stem cells/some other mechanism healing a defective pancreas, this is as good as it can get chemically.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 13:02:35 GMT -5
Who woulda thunk that nearly half the posts on a thread about FUD and moderating would have been hidden! God Bless you moderators...you have a challenge each and every day and I for one, certainly appreciate the work you do. you probably won't see this because I have a feeling I'm blocked, but don't you realize that part of the reason this board has gotten so hostile and abrasive is due to these kinds of posts?
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 12:53:49 GMT -5
Would love to hear of a similar meeting with T2's exclusively...but perhaps the powers that be are compiling data from T1's for T2's to eventually follow for optimal results? More thoughts on why T2's were excluded? docfrezza? liane? My thoughts are that SNY knows that T1s are a better fit for Afrezza as T1s are typically more diligent about their disease. Insurance companies, once they realize how well Afrezza works in controlling T1s compared to other meds, will be more interested in covering Afrezza for T1s than T2s who typically have less expensive means to control their diabetes. T2s will take a much longer time to adopt due to pricing. Maybe once insurance and docs see how well Afrezza works for T1s will they then start recommending it to T2s. Remember, Mannkind originally was only going after T1s not T2s. If I recall, the FDA wanted Mannkind to include T2s in their final study. It's going to be extremely difficult to displace Metformin/sulfonylureas as the first line of treatment for type 2. Likely many years of explicit research as well. Not only to move the pendulum of theory and habit, but also to justify the vast price discrepancy. It will have to be proven that taking Afrezza (or insulin in general) can be explicitly linked to prolonged health. While just about everyone here will get in a fit about this, it's not been my impression that scientists always make logical leaps. Especially when those decisions are surrounded by money. Meaning, just because lower A1C's have been linked to declining neuropathies, and obviously insulin has been shown to lower A1C, there usually still need to be tests done to show that taking insulin sooner (instead of what's currently prescribed) leads to better success in regards to neuropathy. Unless studies have already started (or have been completed already), it's likely that years will be needed to show that type 2s taking insulin is more cost-effective than what's currently prescribed.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 12:40:01 GMT -5
I'm not worried about people's perception of me. If I was, I wouldn't be on the contrarian side...
Truth be told, my time here is probably wasted. It takes me away from my studies and the people I'm trying to argue with don't want to have a rational discussion. Although it appears that some have been swayed to at least question their position. That's all I want to do... I sometimes let my biases get the best of me, but I honestly just try to challenge people to just address both sides. Some, like Rob Sacher, have considered both and choose to keep dumping more money into the stock. Good for him, I really hope it works out. I wouldn't do that in a million years right now, but if it works out, he'll be much wealthier for it. If I risk my hard earned money on a gamble, I at least want to enjoy it. So I'd rather drop 10k in a poker game (where I at least have some control on the outcome) rather than in a biotech whose direction no one but the elite few know about. But to each their own...
As hankscorpio or maybe unicorn rainbow pooper (davinci?) said- I hope this board can stay balanced so that people who are interested in learning about investing in MNKD can have all the options/arguments laid out for them. Those who choose a side- again, so be it. Bury your head in the sand. But for those who want to at least be exposed to ideas outside of their own minds because they may not see things the same way as other people- that's my hope for this board. But I'm not the moderator and I don't get to decide the tone of that board. I'm glad the moderators have given as much freedom as they have though.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 12:32:17 GMT -5
jeremg ... I guess I'm not quite viewing the situation as that dire. I think they have some runway... and I think it would be longer if they started truly doing investor relations. No, not for me... I'm not that deluded. Right now, I think the view on the street is that it would be impossible for them to do a successful offering. Call me an optimist but I think the company still has time to rebuild confidence over the next quarter in time to raise more money. (wow, I said something really optimistic, and yet I suspect I've already been blocked by everyone that would agree with it). This is my biggest concern. Even if we do dilute, how are we going to attract new investors during this time of prolonged silence? Who in their right mind would invest in a company that no one knows the direction of? All of us have done our DD without the added benefit of hindsight. Now that more of the story has been revealed, is MNKD as attractive of a biotech as it once was? I'm honestly not sure if I would invest in this company right now if I wasn't already. The price is attractive, but I wouldn't have sunk as much money into it... This stock looked like an investment when I started. It now looks like you're playing roulette.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 12:28:29 GMT -5
Who said anything about a "shadow organization?" There are plenty of books available on professional FUDsters, who hires them and why. I suggest you buy and read a few if you think that hiring pros to spread FUD is a myth. Board moderators do not publicly discuss actions taken, such as when a member is banned or suspended, so in many ways the board does have to trust us. I think that I can disclose, however, members from both "camps" are dealt with. The point of my message is that we moderators are receiving a number of complaints that incorrectly identify negative posts as FUD when they aren't. Perhaps you should read my message again. We will continue to moderate as best we can. And we thank you and the owners of the board for all the time, energy, and money y'all sink into this. I can't imagine how difficult it is to have to put up with us all day long Thank you for your commitment.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 9, 2015 12:26:27 GMT -5
My only issue with all those accusing me of FUD is that all I've ever pointed to is facts. I always try to root my argument in fact because without truth as a foundation, it will crumble. Now, some may not agree with my syllogisms, but I always invite people to disconnect the conclusions from the premises. I haven't really been challenged. So when I bring up fact and connect logical conclusions to them, how (or better yet, why?) is that perceived as FUD on this board?
I've been extremely transparent and honest with my intentions here. I'm a long, holding til the end, but I hope that I can help others see past their blinders. While the long timers here are disappointed with the new trajectory of the board (and understandably so... I was around earlier when pie in the sky dominated the tone), they're failing to see that the trajectory isn't set by the so-called "FUDsters" but by the current state of the company. They're simply blaming the FUDsters for the negative emotions they're feeling rather than correctly assigning those feelings to the very ideas they're trying to ignore. The truth is, if things were going well, there wouldn't be any of this so-called "FUD" to spread around. Don't blame the people here who choose to try to stay objective rather than choosing to fall in love with the science and thinking there's no way it can fail. There are too many variables for the argument to be so simplistic. You can have the greatest product in the world, but if no one buys it or wants it, it's worthless. Just as beauty is in the eye of the beholder, something is only worth as much as someone will pay for it. Afrezza has no inherent value. If no one wants it, it will be worthless.
It's fine if people choose to bury their heads in the sand. In all honesty, that's mostly what I'm doing. I invest in my Roth the same way I gamble. I have another 401k that I use for the long-term, consistent stuff. I look to make big profits, but as soon as I invest, I count that money as though I've already lost it. That way, if I do make any money on it, I'll be better off.
My hope isn't that people continue to take sides and fight amongst each other. I'm just as guilty to adding to pointless conversation. I wish I didn't have to be on my computer so much so I wouldn't be tempted to add my piece every time ha.
Anyway, best of luck to all longs. In whatever flavor you are. Let us not forget that we are all in this together and we're all on the same side.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 8, 2015 15:54:47 GMT -5
I choose to believe him. He and docfrezza have always seemed to post very accurate info from the trenches imo. And i for one appreciate when they choose to speak up
We'll find out soon
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 8, 2015 12:58:54 GMT -5
stevil nice to see that your no longer bleeding from your eyes in front of the cemetery and have now become the skeleton who is presumably buried. From "med student dude" to death. Nice transition; you must be taking your medical training seriously as it seems you are practicing on yourself. Glad you connected the dots between avatars. You're smarter than I thought . I haven't been giving you enough credit. If you're still around when I pay off my debt, I'll pitch in for charm school for ya. So don't go anywhere...
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 8, 2015 12:49:03 GMT -5
It's all a matter of perspective. You have to realize that Afrezza has only been on the market for 10 months. Yes, it is true that sales are nowhere near what we had all hoped for by this time, myself included. That is the ONLY aspect that for me has affected my investment comfort level. Sure, I wish I had waited to see the stock at these prices before buying but nothing else has changed for me. It's still a gigantic and growing market opportunity. Afrezza is still, by far, the best product available from both a convenience and performance standpoint. I do NOT believe Sanofi is walking away. They KNOW what a potential blockbuster Afrezza is, particularly with a label that allows them to broadcast all the benefits WE know Afrezza offers. Far better for them to stay the course and get the label changed (trials required to accomplish this, obviously) - which would allow devastatingly effective advertising, much better insurance coverage, and a clear and compelling reason for patients to use Affrezza. Documented superiority launches the product into the stratosphere. Walking away would mean they forego that blockbuster potential completely AND take a sizable writeoff. It's hard to see that happening, at least to me. The manipulation has been going on essentially forever and the "catastrophe" can just as easily viewed as a stellar buying opportunity. 10 months - really just an introductory period for most new drugs and that includes Affrezza. I bought with a multi-year outlook and nothing at all has changed from that viewpoint. I haven't posted for months and it doesn't really matter - the chatter is the same. Most "investors" are so focused on the daily stock price they completely lose sight of the reasons they bought the stock in the first place. Sentiment and "news" articles are universally negative. Smelling like capitulation, blood in the streets, Armageddon. Usually a good time to buy. I understand what you're saying, but this hasn't been the typical 10 month new drug that I have seen. Look up Butrans. When I worked in the pharmacy, we had a rep come in seemingly every other week asking us if we've seen any docs writing for it. We never did. We never even stocked it. Do some research on it. It's a very similar concept to Afrezza. It's a schedule 3 (controlled substance but can be phoned or faxed in with the added awesomeness of being able to have refills) transdermal patch. All others like it were schedule 2 (more restrictions) and were supposed to be more harmful. Butrans did the same thing as Duragesic patches, but were slightly safer since it's metabolized differently. Anyway, my point is, there was a novel drug (although ROA was the same) that should have been superior scientifically, but for whatever reason, never caught on. Like Butrans, what have we accomplished in 10 months? Yes, we're still young, but script counts aren't increasing, insurance isn't improving, and no road blocks are being removed. So really, we've only just wasted 10 months. Other drugs that succeed make progress during those 10 months. We've made none.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 7, 2015 15:49:07 GMT -5
Persistence isn't a trait that can disappear.
Think about it. The moment it stops, it never existed. The very definition of persistence is sticking with something until you succeed or it goes FUBAR.
Just as you can't teach an old dog new tricks, a 90 year old man doesn't have a sudden change in personality barring disease to the brain.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Dec 7, 2015 15:20:19 GMT -5
I find myself in the same mindset as you and we are likely in the same financial condition. I was averaging down for a while and current sit in the mid $4 range, but even then, the loss is staggering. It's impossible to know the future, but if things don't work out, this has to be one of the worst debacles in a drug launch that I can think of. To have a revolutionary FDA approved product and have it sputter and fail immediately out of the gate is beyond frustrating. If it happens, it will be for a multitude of factors but due in large part to the piss-poor decisions made by the company management, in my opinion. If it takes off and we see the success that we think it deserves, then I'll be happy to forgive them for the current situation and all the stress associated with it. Like I said, I think and believe that next month tells us something. Either way, investors need answers and soon. If BK were to happen and Al sold for 500 million, that would put the PPS at just over $1 and almost everyone involved takes a massive loss, AL included. I'd rather he take it private at that point. If it's down to $1 per share, I'd rather lose it all than recover the peanuts that would be left after that huge of a loss after selling. We aren't that far away from that point currently. Crazy. My beef with management isn't over Afrezza- it's with not diluting in the summer (when they should have had a better feel for SNY's plan) and not having the foresight to see what's happening now. If they didn't have the money to fund another TS application launch, or there wasn't a partner waiting in the wings (although maybe there was?) they should have raised money when we were at our peak in summer. They should have known, or at the very least, planned on Afrezza not launching out of the gate. That they didn't is inexcusable. I don't give management any beef over Afrezza. I think the lack of success rests solely on SNY. I think MNKD has done everything in their power to support it.
|
|