|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 16, 2019 11:35:13 GMT -5
With "partners" like this, who needs competitors. onedrop.today/blogs/blog/fiasp-insulin-why-its-different-how-it-worksInteresting comparison chart on time to onset for Fiasp vs. Afrezza. I had no idea they could claim a faster onset than Afrezza, 2x faster even. Top that with a whole bunch of user quotes, and it seems the FDA or someone has corraled MNKD into doing nothing with their marketing department. Seems like MNKD should take a lesson from Novo's playbook. one of the user quotes: "“Fiasp is hell. If you're okay with your current insulin, don't change. And if you do, do it when you have time to check and adjust a lot. I get high blood sugars I’ve never had before. I use about 30% more than Humalog and was still high. And I'm hungrier, and put on weight as a result.” - @moumone1" With those particular user quotes (a lot of nasty ones in that list), maybe Onedrop is actually trying to do Mannkind and Afrezza a solid and turn people off of Fiasp?
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 16, 2019 8:41:26 GMT -5
I went into this year’s ASM with modest expectations not expecting much in the way of Q & A but excited to hear from management in person. I can say that I came away from the meeting pumped. Yep pumped. The meeting was much more than I hoped it would be. [... cut ...] So here are some major takeaways from my perspective: 1. The Question and Answer session far exceeded my expectations. In past ASMs, it was my understanding that the Q & A sessions were very brief and would leave shareholders frustrated. This time, Mike and the team took every question for at least 40 minutes. It was awesome. To me they showed confidence and excitement about the company. I came away from the Q & A session with the sense that management was very confident. They had a swagger of “bring it” when it came to any question. 2. Mike C. is very aware of the script issue. Mike essentially said that he knows that people are frustrated to see 500 scripts a week. He is too. He wants to see 5000 scripts a week. He said that last year was about fixing many issues at MannKind. This year is not about fixing, it is about executing on a well prepared plan. 3. Dr. Kendall was amazing to listen to. He truly believes that Afrezza should be the standard of care. He said the current method (standard of care) for treating diabetes at meal time is ancient, barbaric and unpredictable. He said this needs to change. Afrezza is the answer. 4. Dr. Kendall said that when he was first investigating what was out there in terms of publications for Afrezza he came across 13 publications on pubmed. He said that is not nearly enough. He stated that MannKind now has approximately 16 additional publications that will be coming out in the months ahead. This practice of constantly putting the science of Afrezza out in front of the medical community will be intentional and ongoing. 5. Dr. Kendall spoke about the existing data from the 65 completed studies on Afrezza and Technosphere utilizing 5000 patients. (You could feel his excitement when he talked about this.). He said that these studies provided extremely valuable and usable data. He gave the analogy that his team was currently mining this data and had already found valuable “veins of gold.” I believe those findings resulted in the late breaking poster that was accepted at the ADA regarding hypoglycemia. Dr. Kendall feels that there is plenty of data already available to his team to move forward on many different fronts without the need for new studies. 6. Mike and Dr. Kendall plan on being at every major scientific event in the diabetes world this year. Because the science of Afrezza is amazing, and the Diabetes community needs to hear about it .... a lot. 7. It is possible that MannKind and Afrezza may appear on TV talk show at some point in the future. However, those type of things are very fluid so that may not come to pass. But MannKind is open to those opportunities if they present themselves. There are many other takeaways that I am not remembering at the moment but I am sure the other ProBoards members that were there will add to this thread. Also, I have recalled what transpired to the best of my recollection. For other ProBoard members that were there, please feel free to provide corrections or additional info for any topic I mentioned. Final thoughts, MannKind management has a ton of confidence, excitement and energy. It really showed at the Annual Shareholders Meeting. The teamwork and comradery on the executive team was palpable. They are ready to “rock and roll.” Looking at the 7 takeaways from last year's ASM, it seems to me that Mike and Kendall can recycle points 2, 3, 4 (still waiting for those pubs), 5, and 7 again this year. Point 6 (attend every major scientific meeting), we know they've already decided to back off of.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 16, 2019 8:31:42 GMT -5
I would ask management when we can expect published data about Afrezza in major medical journals and some transparency on efforts by CMO David Kendall MD to educate the PCP and Endos within the diabetes medical community. I’d like to hear specific information and not some vague response to this inquiry. It would be good to know whether they have already tried publishing in major medical journals and those journals (which?) were not receptive. I doubt they would ever tell us this explicitly, so I guess we have to make an evaluation when we see where papers do eventually show up. As you may recall, last year about this time Dr. Kendall promised "approximately 16 additional publications that will be coming out in the months ahead." Either he was blowing hot air, or else something is slowing progress. mnkd.proboards.com/post/147967I guess the question to ask at the ASM is, "What is the hold up with the 16 publications you promised us at the last ASM?"
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 16, 2019 8:07:02 GMT -5
“He is simply making the other side of the argument”.. WHY?? If he claims to not be shorting the stock, or discloses he is t compensated in anyway (don’t tell me about the chump change he makes from SA) All I ever wanted was an answer to that question?! Why? One logical explanation might be that he is looking for opportunity to build a reputation for himself that might be parlayed into something of value. It would certainly look good if he cautions about MNKD as investment during this prolonged period of turmoil and dilution and then were to switch his view and say buy, buy, buy right before a sustained multi-year run up. But attributing that to him would be a pure guess. Obviously none of us can know, unless willing to put in a lot of detective work. It has been discussed here before, probably most people forgot or missed it at the time, but SO already had a long track record of covering stocks long before he ever wrote about MNKD. He has over 1800 articles at SA. He has been contributing there since 2007. He had (still has?) an investor related radio show. IIRC, he was an early investor in Sirius. AFAIK, he does cover MNKD more than he does other companies today, but he still covers a few others. But the vast majority of his articles are prior to 2016 and the vast majority of those are not about MNKD.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:32:58 GMT -5
I'm not thrilled with the way my post was edited, but whatever. I encourage people to look at the actual link for the full comment. The LAUGHING STOCK bit was a VERY minimal part of the entire comment, and I think the more interesting bit was the reminder that MNKD was actually promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not that long ago, Yes I understand which was confusing to me because he had said before, a long along time before that they used IMS, and actually quoted the numbers ...🤷♀️ This is probably part of what he is talking about, quite recently from from Q4: 02-26-19 seekingalpha.com/article/4244441-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleMichael Castagna Yes. No Oren, when we use symphonies, so all the data you see were not impacted by what we do with the IQVIA switch, I think we should go back and compare you know what we see in IMS trends historically, because they were always have a 5% to 8% higher on a weekly basis, but our SYMPHONY data is what we look at and I can tell you that is pretty consistent with our factory data. ... But today, I can tell you our SYMPHONY sales and what we showed you and what you have seen, weekly in SYMPHONY is directionally correlated with what we see in our shipments to pharmacies. They are off high a little bit, but I will call it within a 5% variance. So nothing major, and it may vary by one or two weeks, one way or another, but in general, there are in sync.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5
My simplified take on it:
WK | # | IMS | Symp | 3/15 | 1 | 578 | 617 | 3/22 | 2 | 571 | 606 | 3/29 | 3 | 622 | 689 | 4/5 | 4 | 643 | 582 |
It has been suggested by SO that the 689 is the outlier. That the sales reps made a real push to get the last week / end of quarter TRx number as high as possible. Let's accept that as a premise.
In that case, the 689 is the outlier.
If you accept that, then the Symphony numbers have really been generally trending down while the IMS numbers have been generally trending up.
Maybe that makes perfect sense if some current Afrezza users are switching to Eagle scripts. Symphony (everyone tells me) does not capture those scripts. Perhaps IMS does? (Of course, there are also totally new patients going to Eagle hence IMS numbers are going up faster than Symphony's are going down.)
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:09:48 GMT -5
I think you are seriously over-estimating the amount of work that goes into one of those articles. Essentially they are a summary of the weeks events, a couple of graphs from a spreadsheet, and the payment spreadsheet. All he needs to do is put in the weeks numbers into the model, and write a bit of commentary. I seriously doubt it's more than a couple of hours work a week at the most. He is simply making the other side of the argument. With a micro-cap like Mannkind you wouldn't waste time with articles if you wanted to manipulate the price, you would do it via the market. It's a lot more quicker and more certain. “He is simply making the other side of the argument”.. WHY?? If he claims to not be shorting the stock, or discloses he is t compensated in anyway (don’t tell me about the chump change he makes from SA) All I ever wanted was an answer to that question?! Why? If you read his articles regularly, you should have seen that he has answered the WHY many, many, MANY times. Personally, I don't understand why it is okay for people to comment on movies, or music, or books, or sports teams, or the weather, etc., just out of interest, but when you comment on a stock it automatically means one is being compensated for it.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:03:49 GMT -5
A laughing stock, the CEO is making himself and the company a laughing stock! In caps I might add...one of Spencer‘s comments. That seems a little biased to me. Who covers a stock like that? I probably wasn't the only one wondering exactly what Spencer wrote, so I looked it up and posted it below. What I find interesting is that MNKD was promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not long ago. Spencer wrote: seekingalpha.com/article/4253095-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-jump-close-quarter#comment-81513453A LAUGHING STOCK!!!!!!! The CEO is making himself and the company a LAUGHING STOCK! I'm not thrilled with the way my post was edited, but whatever. I encourage people to look at the actual link for the full comment. The LAUGHING STOCK bit was a VERY minimal part of the entire comment, and I think the more interesting bit was the reminder that MNKD was actually promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not that long ago,
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 19:32:43 GMT -5
A laughing stock, the CEO is making himself and the company a laughing stock! In caps I might add...one of Spencer‘s comments. That seems a little biased to me. Who covers a stock like that? I probably wasn't the only one wondering exactly what Spencer wrote, so I looked it up and posted it below. What I find interesting is that MNKD was promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not long ago. Spencer wrote: seekingalpha.com/article/4253095-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-jump-close-quarter#comment-81513453A LAUGHING STOCK!!!!!!! The CEO is making himself and the company a LAUGHING STOCK!
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 13:19:19 GMT -5
Jinx it? You don't think the sinking share price is due to insiders tipping off their buddies of what's coming? There might be shenanigans going on, but I don't see any (especially high-level) insiders tipping off their buddies having much if anything to do with it. That's just (obviously) my opinion, and may be worth very little.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 11:56:57 GMT -5
Hmm. So they notified us on Monday as to the SEC accepting the registration statement for new shares. Now it is Friday afternoon and the SP is tanking on what is a big overall up market kind of day. Probably a coincidence. Let's hope. surprise, surprise Nothing happened, so no surprise. Fingers crossed, we won't see anything like the above anytime soon. Don't jinx it!!!
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 14, 2019 7:29:37 GMT -5
I posted roughly the same thing when I first saw the ad. Award given by Big Pharma to Man kind for wasting money. Went didn't Mike and the other overpaid execs they recently hired realize that the ad was totally inneffective? I say let's try RADIO instead. Cheaper and a lot more ears, most captive in their cars for long stretches at a time. Mike, think about it and for the social media person you hired last year. Use the savings on radio ads if you want to compare effectiveness vs TV. We are not BP to use the same type stupid ad and means they do. I worked in radio for many years and can tell you there's a reason why prescription drugs aren't advertised on AM or FM. On TV you can distract the viewers from all the FDA warnings with scenes of happy people (and dogs) doing interesting things. On radio the listeners would have no distractions and would be forced to pay attention to the warnings that the drug involved could seriously harm or even kill them. As for the award the Afrezza ad received, it was for creativity, not effectiveness. I agree that it was creative, but it was terribly ineffective The award was for "Best TV Advertising Campaign". I'm sure creativity was a very large part of it, but I'm not certain other attributes of the campaign were ignored. www.mmm-online.com/mmm-awards/the-2018-mmm-awards-all-the-winners/Actually, I am feel non-creativity attributes, including effectiveness, must have been important as the entry kit says entries have to include a situation analysis, research planning, campaign objectives, strategic insight, results, etc. Creative execution is only 1 of 8 sub-headings that have to be reported. The summary is: "Campaigns that deploy clever strategy, innovative and creative execution (through state-of-the-art strategies and tactics) with demonstrable results." And circa the time the award was won, arguably the ad was effective with demonstrably positive results. MM&M specifically noted its effectiveness. www.mmm-online.com/mmm-awards/gold-tv-advertising-campaign-of-2018/"Launched in July 2017, the spot garnered more than 110,000 online views in the first few weeks. Prescription sales increased from 3,838 in Q2 2017 to 4,875 in Q3, a 27% spike. It was also the highest sales number since early 2016." FWIW, I never really liked the ad all that much.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 12, 2019 14:23:01 GMT -5
How come most of these new posters are pushing selling or just dropping Afrezza all together? Does that seem odd to any of the long term holders? We have posters who have been around for a long time and are consistently pessimistic. But now we have many new posters piling on. It seems a little odd, if the new posters are also newish investors, insomuch as I would think it would have been the radical / disruptive innovation notion of inhaled insulin / Afrezza that attracted them to MNKD in the first place. But, that may well be me over-simplifying.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 12, 2019 14:19:35 GMT -5
Hmm.
So they notified us on Monday as to the SEC accepting the registration statement for new shares.
Now it is Friday afternoon and the SP is tanking on what is a big overall up market kind of day.
Probably a coincidence. Let's hope.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 12, 2019 11:17:45 GMT -5
I am not advocating for either the sale of Afrezza or the company. And for the record, I never thought TV ads wuld be the answer. They are necessary to a degree for reasons I have previouslu posted. And you statement is really apples to oranges when you compare the past Sanofi rights payments for a then new Afrezza to the valuation of the whole company today. Nonetheless, in answer to your question a lot has changed since Sanofi bought and then terminated their deal with mnkd. Consider the following has happened since mnkd received back the rights to Afrezza: 1. Rev has increased over Sanofi peak many times over on less marketing spend I guess it depends what you mean by 'many times over' and whether or not you adjust for the Afrezza price increases since then. For instance, Sanofi did a week with 627 TRx and $371K. That week's TRx is better than what we saw this week (582), and presumably at today's prices the revenue would have beaten this week's as well.
|
|