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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 13, 2015 12:20:50 GMT -5
And what does that mean to you (I'm asking and not making a statement here...)? J, believe me you're not the first one to ask me that  ....to be honest, I interpret it as a position taken where those calls are used as a hedge while shares are sold into the market for whatever the ultimate purpose (keep s/p in check for a period of time, etc.)....on the other side of the trade as those calls are sold by the MM's they are buying offsetting shares so they limit their exposure simultaneously. In effect 45000 contracts equivalent to 4.5 mill. shares over the course of 4-5 trading days is avg. of 1mill sh/day....so no real net effect on the price, yet tends to keep a lid over it IMO. That's my "guess", anyone have another theory...I'm all ears... Meanwhile, back at the (options) ranch: MNKD Aug 21 2015 8 Days to ExpirationCollapse Calls Calculator 3.0 Call 1.16 1.35 1.09 0.00 0 900 3.5 Call 0.65 0.85 0.83 0.00 0 574 4.0 Call 0.27 0.32 0.34 -0.08 246 14,181 4.5 Call 0.05 0.07 0.06 -0.08 4,924 11,091 5.0 Call 0.02 0.04 0.02 -0.03 275 24,565 5.5 Call -- 0.02 0.02 -0.01 232 7,288 MNKD Sep 18 2015 36 Days to ExpirationCollapse Calls Calculator 3.0 Call 1.11 1.38 1.25 0.00 0 116 3.5 Call 0.70 0.97 0.70 0.00 0 329 4.0 Call 0.42 0.62 0.46 0.00 0 625 4.5 Call 0.23 0.36 0.31 -0.08 5,017 645 5.0 Call 0.11 0.19 0.17 -0.03 2,723 2,161 5.5 Call 0.06 0.15 0.10 0.00 203 1,901 MNKD Jan 15 2016 155 Days to ExpirationCollapse Calls Calculator 3.0 Call 1.35 1.45 1.41 -0.10 9 12,865 3.5 Call 1.05 1.29 1.15 -0.08 200 5,209 4.0 Call 0.85 0.93 0.89 -0.03 116 20,506 4.5 Call 0.64 0.75 0.70 -0.08 12 10,535 5.0 Call 0.55 0.58 0.59 0.00 752 148,137 5.5 Call 0.38 0.52 0.38 -0.09 3 17,353 MNKD Jan 20 2017 526 Days to ExpirationCollapse Calls Calculator 3.0 Call 1.82 2.00 1.92 -0.07 58 33,741 3.5 Call 1.49 2.25 2.10 0.00 0 521 4.0 Call 1.47 1.71 1.60 0.01 3 5,228 4.5 Call 1.29 1.92 1.40 0.00 0 1,070 5.0 Call 1.18 1.28 1.25 -0.05 21 33,153 5.5 Call 1.09 1.72 1.10 0.00 0 868 The call action has been steadily climbing the past two weeks, looks like they may have rolled the AUG 4.5's into SEP and bought themselves another month...funny how that certain portion of the convertibles were extended into SEP. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2015 18:03:57 GMT -5
I know there are 90 in the Western region alone What is the extent of the Western region? That is all I got, didn't get into specifics of the states, etc., it was taken from a conversation regarding something else (ie., where this particular rep placed in their region) not so much about the number of reps per se. Sorry, can't go into much more than that. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2015 12:17:24 GMT -5
I checked LinkedIn today and searched for Afrezza. When I first reported on this back on 04/16/2015 there were 34 USA Sanofi reps that stated there are part of the Afrezza launch team in the USA and 1 in Paris France. I have check this about once a month and the number had moved a bit, but not much. When I check last month and it was in the 40's in the USA and 3 in Paris France(Paris has been at 3 for 3 mths now). This month and they are 53 reps that state they are Sanofi reps working on Afrezza and the number in Paris remained at 3. I know that everybody does not update or use LinkedIn, I just check to see if there is growth. I know there are 90 in the Western region alone |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 12, 2015 9:15:50 GMT -5
Didn't want to start a thread just for this so figured this was as good as any... Is it me or is MNKD the only green on the screen? I like to think of it as the "true flight to safety"... OK better put on my hazmat attire now as I get bombarded lol...but we do stand out like a gem today |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2015 15:19:55 GMT -5
Today's short report number is 116,059,587 Shouldn't surprise anyone....this "lid" will continue to take increased consistent "borrowed" selling pressure. Btw, Jan '16 5.0 Call 0.55 0.63 0.57 0.02 2,342 139,458  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2015 14:37:03 GMT -5
MannKind Corporation Working To Ward Off Bears MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) Yesterday was an incredible day for MannKind with regard to fundamentals. Not only did the company beat earnings expectations, they also announced the appointment of a new, highly qualified CMO. Another main piece of information that came yesterday was the fact that the company is getting close to regulatory approval in Europe for Afrezza. However, the bears seem to be keeping this one down; for now that is. Currently (2:08), MNKD is trading at $4.08 per share after a slight gain of 1.11% so far today. Nonetheless, I think that the bears are getting close to losing their grip and that we are likely to see big gains just around the corner. So, this is another one to keep an eye on for future opportunities. Where did they get that from? Matt said that the market research they are doing is nearly completed. Matthew Pfeffer - Corporate Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Oh, Keith, I’m actually really glad you asked that question, because we get that one a lot too. I can’t be terribly specific, but I can tell you that this is a very active area of discussion and investigation for them. They have spent a lot of time and probably a lot of money, although I haven’t seen those numbers, doing market research in the various countries of the world. And they’re really intending to do this as a global marketing plan as opposed to picking out an area like I get – we get a lot of questions about Europe, for example. They want to look at Europe in the context of the whole world. And so, that work is underway, it’s nearly the completion we understand, and it’s anticipated to be presented to us at our next during Afrezza committee meeting. So we’re all looking forward to that as well. But I think we get a lot of inquiries about it. I know, they’re interested in as well. So we’ll have to stay tuned. I can’t give you specifics at this point, except to make sure you it’s something we’re all looking forward to. seekingalpha.com/article/3423816-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-hakan-edstrom-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?find=europe&all=falseApparently either the transcript is wrong or he heard it differently |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 11, 2015 14:14:21 GMT -5
Regarding Matt's statement, I interpreted it mainly as a timing issue regarding the convertible conversion instrument/procedure and not as a permanent suggestion. I believe he felt that if there were not a fair amount of the float being lent out that the s/p would have a harder time getting put beneath the floor if you will. I certainly don't think they have a problem with those that are using the interest payments (monthly dividends as they are perceived) in a reinvestment sense to buy more shares. You cannot fault those that are long term holders getting an ROI on their personal money and rather should appreciate the fact they are long term holders. So, thank you to those that have "locked up those shares", yes they are being "lent" out but they will be returned at some point whether it is forced by them covering due to pressure from an increasing s/p or the long term holder has other/better use for their funds. After all, the fundamentals will trump everything else in the end...we're closer every month but just not quite there yet...ZZZZzzzz
On a side note, if you have 10 in the poll that hold 80% of the shares that are being lent out, you can't look at the total numbers and make any assumptions w/o knowing the share counts of each catergory in the poll IMO. In other words, as an example, the "don't lend" respondents may only be 10% of shares held out of the total amount of respondents.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 10, 2015 10:56:31 GMT -5
Matt confirms what I have been saying for months. Print and TV ads are not where it's at. It's online due to the vast majority of people who use the internet to search for info. As for longs lending their shares out to short. I say go for it. At least you'll make some money on the stock. Maybe if the company had its act together, shareholders wouldn't have to lend out their shares in the first place. Online far more targeted and capital efficient especially so for a new product. Not uncommon these days for patient to arrive at physicians office and be handed a tablet to check in or fill out paperwork (digital paperwork that is). In some cases, depending on visit / patient health condition they may see a targeted advertisement on the tablet. Doc gets some $$ for all this so a way for them to generate a bit of revenue and for Rx companies to get their product in front of patient right before they see their physician. Talk about targeting and timing. No TV ads for some time. It just wouldn't be financially prudent. Afrezza needs to have the burden of prior authorization significantly reduced. Interesting comments on the call from an analyst inquiring if MNKD feels impacted by large competitors trying to get exclusive formulary position i.e. big price cut to be only play on formulary. Lots of ways for SNY to effectively work around this. More and better data pertaining to A1c and hypo reductions and then comparing traditional RAA to Afrezza is no longer apples to apples. Mr. Insurance company, my product is priced 25% higher and for that investment, you get patient A1c lowered by XX%, incidences of hypoglycemia lowered by YY%, reduction in ER visits and LT health complications. Mr. Insurance company, the ROI on Afrezza is XXX% so from a pure economic perspective, your and your employer would be adversely impacting shareholder value by not paying a premium for Afrezza. Probably the single biggest factor immediately impacting scripts right now. NVO has no doubt "bought" the insurance companies via the oldest marketing ploy there is with a lesser product, drop/undercut and mass market to try and gain as much market share as possible...this was evident back a while ago when I posted that a hospital pharmacist I know told me they replaced Lantus with Levemir strictly from a cost standpoint. This has been Novo's modus operandi and strategy probably since the Adcom vote...obviously in the last year you've seen the DTC advertising for their "pens", Novolog, and most recently Levemir come out like never seen before. Personally, I think it's flattering that they felt it necessary to take such aggressive measures as obviously it speaks a different tune then the one from the individual that was questioned about Afrezza at the ADA convention. To me it's their swan song, so apropos if you will: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swan_song because you better believe those "french" are not going to take it lying down so to speak Thus, the insulin wars have begun and as Matt stated, "they have some strategic efforts being worked on" when asked about the formulary issues. We all know the inter-relationships that are connected in the investment/government/BP arena and perhaps the longer term investors have battle wounds through an educational process that was incurred via good yet idealistic intentions. I thoroughly admit having paid a tuition for this real world schooling that it has been one helluva an eye opening experience. I also get where Matt is coming from on the shares lent out situation and how that may have impacted his strategies regarding the convertibles over the last couple of quarters. It must have been something for him to see how many in unison were joining in to lend out the shares thus making inventory more widely available. I imagine in the beginning it wasn't playing too big a role but as more and more joined in it must of most certainly caused some consternation on managements part when looking to implement different strategies for retiring the convertible. Bottom line the CC confirmed what my conversations have been with the SNY rep. and that is they continue to have a methodical plan in place both in dealing with the formulary issues and concurrently working within the medical professional arena to establish Afrezza for what it is and now has been endorsed by most of those using it... as a second to none best in class RAA insulin. I hear the swan song loud and clear and looking forward to the swan resting in peace as I smile now when I see those ads touting the inferior product |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2015 17:14:06 GMT -5
Sanofi has Aphidra. It will lose patent protection in 2018 There is a conflict of interest here with Sanofi. Will take time for uptake, not a big priority with them apparently, very slow rollout I'll tell ya, as someone with some formulation experience, why not have a product with both long-acting AND short-acting insulins, so that the "NO NEEDLES" would truly apply? I know, FDA is a huge bureaucracy and the head of FDA is married to a hedge fund guy, but maybe float the idea to doctors and see what kind of support there is. should read and the FORMER head of FDA....she bailed/stepped down www.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/health/margaret-hamburg-fda-commissioner-stepping-down.html?_r=0this is the quote that I think she should ask the diabetics or their families over that 6 yr. period which just so happens to coincidentally run congruent with the hassles/obstacles/pushback/DELAYS,etc,etc that the FDA gave Al and MNKD: “ Six years in this job is really a lot,” she said. “When I took over, it was often described as an agency in crisis. I’ve been able to turn that around, to really improve morale and change the culture of the agency in some important ways. I hope that I’ve really made it a stronger and better place.” www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/Kin/gd7/Kingd7zrT.gifI guess 8-10 yrs for a vastly superior insulin is then an eternity, right? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2015 14:14:13 GMT -5
it should not be a surprise to anyone , that the MM , and HF will do everything in their power to be certain that we close under $4 today Friday , so they collect the premiums as they expire . even knowing there is CC on Monday , they will figure they will just buy then if ( that's a big IF) , there was to be a surprise to the upside Monday . The question I have is should we get call options - strike price - $ 4.00 for January 2016 , the price would be .75 to .77 so break even would be anything above 4.80 by Jan 2016 . With a small push , I think the PPS would be over 4.80 by Jan 2016 . I only hesitate because I have so much riding on MNKD so far and because after the typical CC , usually they bring the PPS down , so Monday they could be cheaper . any thoughts, Joey? I am still in the camp if you're going for a pure long options play, the Jan'17's @ 3 with the offer (not many mind you) right now at 1.80 give you that same 4.80 but with 12 mos. more of potential upside for a buck more so to speak. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2015 12:15:08 GMT -5
Reviewing what Compound said and the data on Formularylookup, Afrezza is only has preferred insurance status of 4% vs. Toujeo's 28%. Toujeo vs. Afrezza overall on Formularylookup on 08.07.2015. Insurance Status Toujeo Afrezza Preferred 28% 4% Covered 23% 21% Restricted 28% 43% Not Covered 22% 32% And I've been tracking these numbers for about 4 months now and they aren't changing. The covered goes up a tiny bit at times... but interesting goes down as well. Maybe it's just noise in the data collection. Overall it really is the same over this time period. I will feel a LOT better if once these numbers start improving.And, more importantly so will countless diabetics too feel a lot better and live longer, healthier lives |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2015 9:44:57 GMT -5
Compound you get it! I PM'd Rozale to see if I could help, maybe get him in touch with SNY rep in his region. They are working diligently with these types of patients and their practitioners and SPC (Sanofi Patient Connection) team in addressing these issues. So based on Rozale's statement, you could add him to the "backlog" number behind the dam so to speak...now you get the picture of what pent up demand growth will translate to when the flood gates open |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2015 12:16:54 GMT -5
And what does that mean to you (I'm asking and not making a statement here...)? J, believe me you're not the first one to ask me that ....to be honest, I interpret it as a position taken where those calls are used as a hedge while shares are sold into the market for whatever the ultimate purpose (keep s/p in check for a period of time, etc.)....on the other side of the trade as those calls are sold by the MM's they are buying offsetting shares so they limit their exposure simultaneously. In effect 45000 contracts equivalent to 4.5 mill. shares over the course of 4-5 trading days is avg. of 1mill sh/day....so no real net effect on the price, yet tends to keep a lid over it IMO. That's my "guess", anyone have another theory...I'm all ears... |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2015 11:24:42 GMT -5
NVO reported this morning, their results were "meh" IMO...and after hitting an all time high running into the earnings they have backed down approx. 4% in today's trading so far (note the biotechs in general are down also) but relative to that SNY/MNKD are holding up well...in fact earlier they were the only two "green on the screen" but are mildly lower now. The spread between NVO and SNY has reached it's narrowest margin in the last several mos. So I was way early a year ago (and you could say a lot of us were way early years ago as we underestimated the time of a paradigm shift due to various factors. Make no mistake, it is taking hold in a methodical manner and is getting recognized by the "other sides". So the question begs, do they slowly exit their play from the previous winner in the RAA space now that it's had its run? and if so, do they join on the new player that is going to take over the space? (they could do it via SNY or MNKD or both) however they have the challenge of doing it with finesse ie., in a subtle and delicate manner, after all some of us believe they may also have to exit a short position with finesse simultaneously. Regardless, I might get sick to my stomach if I know one day I might be in the same shareholders meeting room with those who have "blood on their hands". Apologize for the personal color but it remains one of the single biggest sore spots that I will never forget or forgive for that matter. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2015 10:55:44 GMT -5
Surprised about the getting dropped by Sny comment. From someone else its to be expected. Not if you've been following Josh for the last 18 mos. or so...he stated the $2 range before we shot to $11 last year...hmm, may be a harbinger of things to come if history repeats itself regarding timing |
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....to be honest, I interpret it as a position taken where those calls are used as a hedge while shares are sold into the market for whatever the ultimate purpose (keep s/p in check for a period of time, etc.)....on the other side of the trade as those calls are sold by the MM's they are buying offsetting shares so they limit their exposure simultaneously. In effect 45000 contracts equivalent to 4.5 mill. shares over the course of 4-5 trading days is avg. of 1mill sh/day....so no real net effect on the price, yet tends to keep a lid over it IMO. That's my "guess", anyone have another theory...I'm all ears...
