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Point of the thread was not to allude to any specific material event, it was to illustrate the risks if one were to happen and for those who may not be prepared (ala margin and shorter term options positions they hold or were thinking of) if same occurred. It has been my experience that when there are two very diverse sides it can end with some volatile fireworks. When some of the factors you point out may be on the "brink" of breaking through and you have a large short contingent that is "stuck" and has almost doubled over the course of a year in trying to suppress and keep a s/p from getting away from them, they will seize any opportunistic time where confusion may aid in their getting freed up from a bad position. 

In addressing your points 3,4, and 6 I encourage you to read the "its NOT sanofi" thread...also read my exchange I posted in that thread with a SNY rep. especially the point of why Toujeo is not being blocked by the insurers compared to Afrezza.

Hope that helps

Hypothetically speaking, most longs have talked about a material event that would cause a short squeeze....conversely I'm wondering if the longs are mentally and financially prepared for a material event headline that would cause a possible selloff reaction? An example would be with a previous small life insurance company I held shares in where the founder was an officer and major shareholder and passed away a few years ago. It was deemed a material event and got put out across the wires, etc.



Should something like that occur and the instantaneous reaction causes violent swing reactions are you prepared to handle it when the uncertainty gets thrown about. You better believe there would be rumors from left, right, and center...FUD galore! I am saying that it is not a guaranteed certainty to occur but certain events stick out in my memory that have occurred in very similar situations to the one with this company. It keeps me balanced and grounded when remembering the past (certain events as mentioned) and learning from history so I thought I would share from previous experience.



I have mentioned in the past DNDN, which much like MNKD had a huge short interest and the stock was usually under constant pressure. The shorts got caught off guard as after similar struggles they never thought the company would get the first ever cancer immunotherapy approved. Well after the approval, the share price was very volatile and I remember within a day it went like a yo yo from 8 to 2. Eventually it ripped up to near 60 and settled to trade between 30-40 area. Ultimately it went all the way back to pennies and BK for various reasons (far different in comparing its problems, etc.) but the day it made those swings I vividly remember because in a sense it was one of those "deer in the headlights" days and there was a huge amount of confusion...I believe it may have been halted after it was too late and the damage was done to sort things out. For a better understanding of what took place and some similarities see following: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendreon they had a bit of their own cult referred to Dendreonites and after getting what looked to be an ok in 2007 from the FDA, the FDA stated they wanted more info....it eventually got approved two years later, sound familiar?



The thoughts that go through one's mind when emotions take over can cause one to act now and think about what they've done later...the reason I never flinched prior to Adcom was I constantly reminded myself of what I had learned through my due diligence up to that point and held confidence that the committee would see what a wonderful alternative Afrezza would/could be for Diabetics.



What swings the emotions for some more than others is that everyone's situation is obviously different...but one thing is certain, during times like those you will wish that you didn't know what margin was and if you hold options with expirations coming due, depending on how things settle out you may vow you'll never do options again. More importantly, if you held onto the stock based on the fundamentals of what you've learned and believe nothing long term has changed ie., the science etc. then as hard as it may be to keep those emotions in check, remember calmer heads will most likely prevail.



I bring this up because one needs to keep in mind the sizable short position and they (the shorts) will prey on those vulnerable emotions and especially on those that are exposed to margin. I know that there are those that don't pay attention to charts etc. especially when it comes to biotechs but from a timing standpoint we are in those final weeks for a very long inverted H&S pattern that has been discussed in the past to come to a climatic period of reversal. It feels as though with as complacent as most have been through this that some event will inevitably happen to cause a final "flush" and/or panic for a decent volume of shares to exchange between long liquidation and shorts covering and them converting into those long positions. I would hate to see some of those that have waited this long to give in to what could amount to regretful emotional decisions. Take this fwiw, but I've witnessed it on various past occasions. IMO, this is not a time to be highly margined in this stock as those who were the day prior to Adcom can attest, it was not fun and most likely very costly for some who had to involuntarily part with their shares.

The next few weeks may pass w/o incident, but are you mentally and financially prepared to ride out any storm that comes with gusts of fear, uncertainty, and doubts spewed about to part you with those shares you've ridden with to this point? Keep your eye on the prize

Precisely, that's why you need to be RVW, what say ye a month from now when it's back up 25% and you slept through the noise while collecting? Or for that matter, a year or two...if you need the $$ one month from time of investing, probably shouldn't be in the lending program to begin with ....btw, are you on the way to Chi-town already?

Thanks Brentie (and Greg), love the bolded point Brentie...I liken this to the problems that managers of over sized funds have.

Years ago, can't remember the fund manager but I think he was with Magellan and when they had to close their funds due to them getting too big. The problem was if they wanted to exit or enter any position with size, the sheer volume created a problem even with large caps.

The following on that very same dilemma lipperinsight.thomsonreuters.com/2015/03/monday-morning-memo-fund-size-matter/
stays in the back of the mind when considering how they (the current SI) exit the 43% position currently being held short. With such a staunch cultish behavior of lunatic longs as we are labeled, along with Al and his friends, not to mention our friends the institutions, we just watch the open interest in calls continue to rise through out the expiration calendar. Who gets stuck on the other side of those calls when those shares have to get bought back? Actually who really cares at this point, not anyone collecting the monthly dividend that's for sure

Sooo...anyone get notified of returned shares from the lending programs (for more than a few days)? Raise your hands (insert tune from Jeopardy)

The problem AF has is he puts this stuff out there, just like there would be no Adcom recommendation to approve, etc. etc., so now he has to deal with how he cleans up the feces that just spewed from his pen after the next 10-11 days rolls by. Seriously, does anyone think Matt is going in front of the wolves without knowing he can address those questions...remember how he looked a week before the BofA conference, and then it seemed like a totally different CFO at the BofA conference? 

Excuse me, but I would like to keep my memory intact as much and for as long as possible:

www.kpbs.org/news/2013/apr/12/scripps-researchers-find-culprit-alzheimers-relate/

also,

Metformin, Other Antidiabetic Drugs, and Risk of Alzheimer's Disease

www.medscape.com/viewarticle/764413_1