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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2015 9:29:02 GMT -5
Bid Ask Last Change Vol Op Int 3.0 Call 1.45 1.60 1.56 0.00 0 12,094 3.5 Call 1.20 1.29 1.10 0.00 0 3,063 4.0 Call 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.00 0 19,788 4.5 Call 0.73 0.90 0.89 0.00 0 10,330 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 62,205 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 76,636 5.0 Call 0.55 0.60 0.58 0.03 10,025 97,777 5.0 Call 0.55 0.81 0.59 -0.01 6 105,347 5.5 Call 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.00 0 16,886 continuing at +43,142 contracts opened...since friday Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/3131/2016-call-abnormal-volume-today?page=2#ixzz3i2r2kXy2 |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2015 9:10:15 GMT -5
Right now I'm convinced it lies mostly in the hands of the insurance companies. The patient demand and physicians (that have been targeted up to now) are there more than most think/realize, there is definitely a backlog of scripts waiting/building for approval...this directly from one of the top SNY reps in a particular region. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 6, 2015 8:51:03 GMT -5
Joey- Not unless someone drugs me and takes me to the polling booth at gunpoint. My preferences are for leaders with humility, intellect, and a greater awareness of the immensely changed world (fast approaching) that awaits us in the 21st Century. But he IS entertaining.  Never thought of it that way.... would you want The Donald with his fingertips on a nuclear arsenal?  Didn't think so. Last night there was a special on LinkTV (NHK -Japan), 70th anniversary of Hiroshima bombing. Very sad. Here's a thought...would you want to be on the other side and "dare him"  ...difference of him and Mr. Softy Or Mrs. Turn your head (yeah let's just leave them at the Embassy to get ambushed). Not necessarily endorsing, just provoking some thoughts of "the keeping the status quo" alternative choices... Let's let the original thread get back on track |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 16:42:05 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 13:28:27 GMT -5
joeypotsandpans... I'm curious what strikes and dates you are considering for the straddle. In the age of HFT, options are extremely dangerous. I would not go there. You might have the most brilliant ingenious plan in the world, and some guy sitting in front of a computer sets the HFT to change the price by a couple pennies and destroy what you did. I have seen it first hand. Do not trust this market. It is essentially unregulated. Treat your long position as a "share" in Mannkind.... all of those options and strategies will only give you an ulcer or heart attack (even if you are successful). But if that's the way you roll, good luck. Agreed, and thus the reason I PM'd DBC. I do not wish to advocate this strategy rather brought it up for discussion for those that have had extensive experience of trading options. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 11:25:10 GMT -5
This is strictly my thoughts and for discussion purposes and not meant as a recommendation by any means: I personally am looking at a straddle at this point based on the original theme of this thread. For those that do not know what a straddle is, here is a link that explains it in some detail: www.tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_straddle_using_calls_and_puts_together_to_capture_a_big_move-677752.htmlThe last 5 trading days the volatility has virtually come to a halt for whatever reason (most likely the conversion process or non process whichever the case may be) but most longs have now become somewhat sanguine in their expecting this to be a longer term wait. They have literally been lulled into thinking whether they're collecting interest on their money or just in acceptance "of it could go on for another six mos. until we get news" scenario. The straddle will come into play should something come out that causes the volatility to shoot much higher which will also in turn cause the premiums to jump as well. If you're in Rob Sacher's camp the idea is to take advantage of the initial swing, take profits on that position and then anticipate recapturing the costs and/or possible profits for the opposite side of the straddle when the pendulum swings the other way in a volatile fashion. To take it one step further, if you think that it is an expensive trade because of the risk of it not coming into play, you can offset it with selling a "strangle" at strikes you think this could possibly sit within for a period of time and collect the offsetting premiums. I would stress that for anyone not familiar with options to not "try this at home" so to speak, it is primarily meant for discussion purposes only for those that have actively traded options for any significant period of time. Also, taking positions like these really require one to be readily available and nimble to take advantage of when/if the time came that the s/p hits that volatility. In other words "stick to your day jobs" and when/if a material event happens most likely you will have missed most of the swings
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 10:47:47 GMT -5
Joey, I've been watching this very closely, as I'm considering buying them myself before Friday.... I noticed this morning that the spread opened around .55 - .80. Slowly worked down to .55 - .65, then I look again and there's 10k in volume between .55 - .58. It seems to me like a seller came in and lowered their price until they got the volume they wanted... Which is concerning to me........ However, if it's simply an MM hedging a purchase of stock (maybe to fill a large order) then it could be a good thing. I agree that the timing is interesting for this volume,,, I also think it's interesting that the CC is scheduled on day 9 of the 10 day convert period... We may get stone walled and find out nothing. A day in the life of a MNKD long I guess.....  ? I will respond in the "material event" thread regarding thoughts and possible strategy regarding same |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 10:24:38 GMT -5
I'm not certain about whether corruption is getting worse, but perhaps I am naive. I was reared in an environment where integrity mattered and where things that mattered most were always more important than money. I sense the same from many of the posters here (at least the ones I follow). The human mind is very adept at enabling people to deceive themselves into thinking that bending the rules for their own benefit (or the benefit of their family and friends) does not constitute corruption or wrongdoing. It's only corruption when other people do it. I suspect that leaders in the FDA tend to think most about the people they protect from harm, not the people who die or become disabled as a result of denied or delayed access to helpful pharmaceuticals because of their own conflicts of interest. Leaders need role modelsm too. IMO there are fewer leaders with the authentic moral courage- with a willingness to speak out or be exemplars/role models in situations where they have nothing to gain. Mostly, those at the top who see corruption don't want to compromise their positions (social, political or economic) by saying what needs to be said. Just, of course, in my opinion. Chris C Chris...be careful, with that particular statement you may talk yourself into voting for the Donald  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 5, 2015 10:19:16 GMT -5
Bottom line is where that number goes come (as Ashiwi mentioned originally) the open tomorrow, if it is +/- 20k will tell you if they were newly opened or closed out, if it remains the same then more than likely it was done as an exchange between desks within a firm(s) or as you term "dark pool" and showed up in the volume for the day. Only other possibility (thinking out loud) is there was a one digit error and it was meant to be 2k instead of 20k and was straightened out, or 1k instead of 10k and the reversal showed as 20k volume, would have to ask an options desk clerk or options exchange how that is typically handled. Bid Ask Last Change Vol Op Int 3.0 Call 1.45 1.60 1.56 0.00 0 12,094 3.5 Call 1.20 1.29 1.10 0.00 0 3,063 4.0 Call 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.00 0 19,788 4.5 Call 0.73 0.90 0.89 0.00 0 10,330 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 62,205 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 76,636 5.0 Call 0.55 0.60 0.58 0.03 10,025 97,777 5.5 Call 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.00 0 16,886 +35,572 contracts opened...since friday with a possible additional 10k today, coincidence in timing? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2015 13:10:57 GMT -5
Bottom line is where that number goes come (as Ashiwi mentioned originally) the open tomorrow, if it is +/- 20k will tell you if they were newly opened or closed out, if it remains the same then more than likely it was done as an exchange between desks within a firm(s) or as you term "dark pool" and showed up in the volume for the day. Only other possibility (thinking out loud) is there was a one digit error and it was meant to be 2k instead of 20k and was straightened out, or 1k instead of 10k and the reversal showed as 20k volume, would have to ask an options desk clerk or options exchange how that is typically handled. Bid Ask Last Change Vol Op Int 3.0 Call 1.45 1.60 1.56 0.00 0 12,094 3.5 Call 1.20 1.29 1.10 0.00 0 3,063 4.0 Call 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.00 0 19,788 4.5 Call 0.73 0.90 0.89 0.00 0 10,330 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 62,205 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 76,6365.5 Call 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.00 0 16,886 +14431 contracts opened...not closed out For those of you keeping track: so far today, the street games continue: 5.0 Call 0.58 0.60 0.59 -0.04 13,121 76,636 |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2015 12:19:54 GMT -5
Shouldn't it read 2nd TS deal? SNY was the first deal, it is important to keep in mind that Afrezza validates the technology so I discount the it's been around for the last 15 yrs. statement as once it was validated both by users and the FDA approval it changes the whole dynamics. As Afrezza becomes the top selling RAA (Ultra when eventually designated) then it becomes a whole different dynamic. Let's go back to DNDN, they essentially changed the landscape for cancer immunotherapy as far as validating the concept. Once they got FDA approval, how many companies accelerated their programs...dynamics change quickly after the pioneers settle the new landscape. As far as vaccines, I don't know how many third world countries citizens can afford cigarettes...of course those same citizens can't afford the vaccines but places like the Gates Foundation etc., certainly can.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2015 8:53:56 GMT -5
An article that hits the key points with actual comments from PWD, and in the end truthfully I believe the FDA will be questioned not by an Adcom panel member, but others who have lost members of their families, etc. Of course, Margaret and her husband will be long gone by then.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2015 7:37:24 GMT -5
Agreed. And yet we see these kinds of statements over and over. As I recall from the time and sales report there were three large lots that helped drive the large total for the day, but I think they were all done offline and then reported, i.e., they happened in dark pools. The reason I say that is because the prices were "abnormally normal". So let's say I want to buy 8,000 of these calls. That's going to go so deep into the ask side of the order book that I'll be taking out the $.60 asks, the $.65 asks, the $.79 asks (to make up some more random numbers) and so on maybe up to $1.00 depending on how deep the order book is. Or I'll run it out entirely. If OTOH, someone were trying to sell 8,000 of these calls, they'd be taking every bid there was. I don't recall the order book exactly, but I think a market order of that magnitude on either side would have run out the order book on the other side, resulting in "catastrophic" prices. Since that didn't happen, I'm pretty sure the three large trades happened offline somewhere, perhaps as part of a large hedge. In any event, it was pretty startling. I'm open to alternative explanations, too, since I'm just guessing here. Bottom line is where that number goes come (as Ashiwi mentioned originally) the open tomorrow, if it is +/- 20k will tell you if they were newly opened or closed out, if it remains the same then more than likely it was done as an exchange between desks within a firm(s) or as you term "dark pool" and showed up in the volume for the day. Only other possibility (thinking out loud) is there was a one digit error and it was meant to be 2k instead of 20k and was straightened out, or 1k instead of 10k and the reversal showed as 20k volume, would have to ask an options desk clerk or options exchange how that is typically handled. Bid Ask Last Change Vol Op Int 3.0 Call 1.45 1.60 1.56 0.00 0 12,094 3.5 Call 1.20 1.29 1.10 0.00 0 3,063 4.0 Call 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.00 0 19,788 4.5 Call 0.73 0.90 0.89 0.00 0 10,330 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 62,205 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 76,6365.5 Call 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.00 0 16,886 +14431 contracts opened...not closed out |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 3, 2015 7:17:44 GMT -5
RBC Capital Mkts lowers their MNKD tgt to $9 from $10 noting co has successfully executed on several items from getting Afrezza approved to securing a partner (SNY) and most recently addressing the financing overhang and increasing Afrezza capacity. However, the key metric, which is Afrezza demand, remains wanting. SNY posted 2Q:15 sales of $2.2M but firm still thinks trends in 3Q/ 4Q:15 and possibly 1H:16 are the more important harbinger of LT Afrezza outlook.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 2, 2015 14:24:41 GMT -5
Yes. Same as when someone spreads fear by saying look 4 million shares were SOLD on Friday ( and also bought). The buyer might be an intermediary market maker, but ultimately it will get matched up with a real buyer or there would not be that much open interest. I do grow tired of seeing a net neutral event spun either positively or negatively. It's like saying tomorrow the sun will rise and having some other jerk say yes because the sun is setting today. Agreed. And yet we see these kinds of statements over and over. As I recall from the time and sales report there were three large lots that helped drive the large total for the day, but I think they were all done offline and then reported, i.e., they happened in dark pools. The reason I say that is because the prices were "abnormally normal". So let's say I want to buy 8,000 of these calls. That's going to go so deep into the ask side of the order book that I'll be taking out the $.60 asks, the $.65 asks, the $.79 asks (to make up some more random numbers) and so on maybe up to $1.00 depending on how deep the order book is. Or I'll run it out entirely. If OTOH, someone were trying to sell 8,000 of these calls, they'd be taking every bid there was. I don't recall the order book exactly, but I think a market order of that magnitude on either side would have run out the order book on the other side, resulting in "catastrophic" prices. Since that didn't happen, I'm pretty sure the three large trades happened offline somewhere, perhaps as part of a large hedge. In any event, it was pretty startling. I'm open to alternative explanations, too, since I'm just guessing here. Bottom line is where that number goes come (as Ashiwi mentioned originally) the open tomorrow, if it is +/- 20k will tell you if they were newly opened or closed out, if it remains the same then more than likely it was done as an exchange between desks within a firm(s) or as you term "dark pool" and showed up in the volume for the day. Only other possibility (thinking out loud) is there was a one digit error and it was meant to be 2k instead of 20k and was straightened out, or 1k instead of 10k and the reversal showed as 20k volume, would have to ask an options desk clerk or options exchange how that is typically handled. Bid Ask Last Change Vol Op Int 3.0 Call 1.45 1.60 1.56 0.00 0 12,094 3.5 Call 1.20 1.29 1.10 0.00 0 3,063 4.0 Call 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.00 0 19,788 4.5 Call 0.73 0.90 0.89 0.00 0 10,330 5.0 Call 0.63 0.66 0.64 0.00 0 62,205 5.5 Call 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.00 0 16,886 |
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Didn't think so. 
...difference of him and Mr. Softy Or Mrs. Turn your head (yeah let's just leave them at the Embassy to get ambushed). 
?
