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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 12, 2015 15:23:46 GMT -5
Keith A. Markey, Ph.D., M.B.A. kmarkey@griffinsecurities.com 212-514-7914 Stock Symbol NASDAQ: MNKD Current Price $5.76 12 mos. Target Price $16.25 Market Cap $2,336.8 mln Shares O/S 405.7 mln Avg Daily Vol. (3 mos.) 4,732,415 shs. 52- Week Price Low/High $3.80 - $11.48 Fiscal Year End Dec Dividend / Yield $0.00 / 0.0%
January 12, 2015 MannKind Corp. BUY Company Update : Pharmaceuticals A Smooth Transition as Commercialization Nears
Alfred Mann has handed the CEO reins to Hakan Edstrom who has served as MannKind’s President, COO, and director since 2001. Mr. Mann, who is 89, will continue as Chairman of the Board and will attend monthly executive meetings as well as board meetings. Mr. Edstrom has relinquished the role of COO to Dr. Juergen Martens, who has held the role of Vice President of Pharmaceutical Development and Technical Operations since 2011. The changes, which became effective on January 9th, do not signal a significant change in the executive responsibilities of late nor do they indicate a new strategic direction for MannKind.
Afrezza’s launch appears likely in February. MannKind is running three shifts at its Connecticut manufacturing plant to build inventory in anticipation of the rollout. Separately, we learned that Sanofi will hold meetings in late January to prepare its sales team for the official launch. Investors can anticipate a news announcement from MannKind’s marketing partner to formally announce its plans, but it appears that the company is dedicating significant resources to introduce Afrezza® before launching its new long-acting, basal insulin called Toujeo®.
MannKind received two $25 million milestones from Sanofi recently. However, the Company’s auditors are having difficulty deciding how these milestones and the $150 million upfront fee the Company received should be treated. That’s because theoretically the funds would have to be repaid if Afrezza fails commercially. Several alternative methods exist and the issues should not be that difficult to resolve, in our opinion, as Sanofi has a similar profitsharing contract with Regeneron. The filing of MannKind’s Form 10-K is due by early March.
We continue to rate MannKind shares a BUY with a price target of $16.25. Commercialization of Afrezza is fast approaching and with it the potential for the Company to turn profitable in the next 18 months. We will provide estimates for 2015 once the accounting treatment of the upfront and milestones has been settled.
griffin.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=3018b8de-3822-448d-aca3-cfac3819d84b&mime=pdf&co=griffin&id=rdnewcom@rogers.com&source=mail
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 12, 2015 15:07:37 GMT -5
Didn't like the summary graphic at the beginning of the presentation.
Afrezza was on the second row of the lift off pads and looks to be a smaller rocket than the rest.
Maybe I am become somewhat cynical...
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2015 14:14:41 GMT -5
working further on the numbers...
we might be able to calculate the costs of manufacturing if we were sure of the ratio of 4u:8u in the box
assuming 1:2 as I previously suggested:
x = non insulin costs in production of a 90 pack
(285.54 - x)/(90*8) = (239.54 - x)/(60*8 + 30*4) (285.54 - x)/(720) = (239.54 - x)/(600) (285.54 - x)*(600) = (239.54 - x)*(720) 171324 - 600x = 172468 - 720x 720x-600x = 172468-171324 120x = 1144 x = 1124/120 x = 9.53
Does this sound right? Comments appreciated.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2015 13:43:08 GMT -5
cross post:
Just did another poke around the rxcut.com website and see that there is a pricing difference between the 4U and the 4U/8U 90 packs.
8U = 285.54 per 90 (month) or $3356 for 12 boxes of 90 units ($6 discount if bought as an annual supply) 4U/8U = 239.54 per 90 or $2724 for 12 boxes ($12 discount per box if bought as an annual supply)
not sure what the ratio of 4u to 8u but assuming 1:2 (one meal per day smaller requirement - dinner, end of day???)
Lets say $1/unit to package and manufacture, leaves us with 195.54
195.54/(90 * 8u) = 0.2716 per unit of insulin
Ergo:
4U = (.2716 * 4 * 90) + 90 = $187 ($2253 annual without discounting)
8U/12U = (.2716 * ((12u * 60) + (8u * 30))) + 90 = $350 ($4208 annual)
12U = (.2716 * 12u * 90) + 90 = $383 ($4600 annual)
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2015 11:06:06 GMT -5
This might not be the best comparison on a unit for unit basis because these prices are for either a 4u or an 8u regiment.
Wondering if the purported 12U will also be in this ballpark.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2015 10:30:13 GMT -5
Thought the pens were priced at around 3K annually (corrections welcome). Not sure if this included the additionally required hardware. If Dr Mann is correct about the lower requirement for testing, then we might still be in the same ballpark as other premium (pens) products.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 9, 2015 10:05:34 GMT -5
Did some playing around and this is what I got for 90 dosages (1 Month) which seems to equate to about $3500/year.
Total cost for all medications: $285.54 Medication Description Type Quantity Price AFREZZA POW 4& 8UNIT 90 EA BOX Brand 90 $285.54
Disclaimer: Medication prices are updated weekly and may vary at time of purchase. Time release medications and varying package sizes will change prices significantly. To receive accurate medication pricing be sure to select the identical product. To confirm the exact medication costs please contact the pharmacy directly.
DOWNTOWN PHARMACY 19 BEEKMAN STREET HOSPITAL LOBBY NEW YORK, NY 10038 Phone: (212) 587-5252 Distance: 0.16 Miles Total cost for all medications: $285.54
XPRESS LANE PHARMACY 99 NASSAU ST #111 NEW YORK, NY 10038 Phone: (212) 962-4900 Distance: 0.17 Miles Total cost for all medications: $285.54
DOWNTOWN PHARMACY 165 WILLIAM ST NEW YORK, NY 10038 Phone: (212) 233-0333 Distance: 0.18 Miles Total cost for all medications: $285.54
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 7, 2015 11:11:08 GMT -5
Btw because I'm a nerd, I calculated the approximate # of packages a tractor trailer can hold. I came up with 125,000. Assuming there's an avg of 45 cartridges in each pack, that's 5 million of them Edit, that works out to a tractor trailer shipment every 8 days based on 24/7 production. Every 12 days for 16hr a day actively producing, so Ya one bay is all you'd need fugacity, I don't know about anyone else, but if the entire first load got accidentally dumped on AF's head, I'd get over it very quickly. Wouldn't want to it land on his head cause that would be the end of him. Think that maybe if it landed on his lower torso would be much better. He would then be able to look up at the mountain above waiting for its opportunity to come crashing down on him, allowing him to lots of time to realize just how f'd his "REAL" position is ...
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 30, 2014 14:04:06 GMT -5
Hear that its a great time to write letters to receptive FDA ears...
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 18, 2014 11:52:31 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 18, 2014 10:45:49 GMT -5
Thanks for the kind words KC. After reading this latter part of this thread I HAD to sign up w/Proboards! I just wanted to say a quick 'Hi' and look forward to some real banter - unlike the Yahoo MB! Best! - PB - Just speculating, but are these just some phantom shares that the big boys are trading between themselves?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 12, 2014 9:27:50 GMT -5
Like the above post by Savzak but only if haven't gone to read the article on Motley Fool
Like this post if you went to Motley Fool and read the article.
We can see the effect of how many are reading and where.
Thanks,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Dec 12, 2014 9:18:44 GMT -5
Is it possible to cut and paste the articles here along with the link. It keeps us from giving these guys anymore clicks than their garbage deserves. We all want to read it to see what kind of crap they are spewing I just don't think we should be supporting their endeavours. Nothing of significance since the last CRL (except the dilution) has been ever true, why support it.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Nov 27, 2014 11:03:56 GMT -5
Going short I might be scared to do but could at least buy some puts.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Nov 21, 2014 10:42:42 GMT -5
What was peanutbutter and jams (PJ) dollar estimate for the year forward?
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