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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 24, 2015 21:16:06 GMT -5
As i understand it the new line run sbout 10M installed and take about 6 month to add.
These two lines sound like they are to be ready to roll at the end of Mar.
I will make a prediction that the capacity will be required.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 24, 2015 18:02:33 GMT -5
Original Email to Mannkind: On Jan 23, 2015, at 12:56 PM xxxxx wrote:
Mr Pheffer:
Is there anyway that you can clear up how many production lines are currently certified and producing product at Danbury?
We know there is at least one (would have been hard to meet the production quota for launch), just wondering about the other two that you have mentioned that are about 10% greater in capacity that were supposed to have been on line in 2015. Speculation is that they are not online yet followed by speculation that they are avail and that is how the quota was met early.
Nice to have heard back from you before Christmas in response to my phone call.
Sincerely, xxxxx
Response email was back with in 5 min (impressive response time):
On Friday, January 23, 2015 3:59 PM, "Pfeffer,Matt" <mpfeffer@mannkindcorp.com<mailto:mpfeffer@mannkindcorp.com>> wrote:
The two additional lines are in place but must go through a lengthy testing and validation process. Will likely take another couple of months. A good reason to build up healthy pre-launch inventory.
Matt
Sent from my iPhone
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 23, 2015 11:25:34 GMT -5
Did you check the imbedded date stamp? Both the pictures have different formats?
What does CLAR; Gel pads refer to on the sticky note.
Is the person taking the picture wearing any pants, look down below the keyboard in second shot?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 23, 2015 8:54:31 GMT -5
Would be willing to bet that these did not come from a pharmacy but mostly likely were pictures taken at the Training Session in Las Vegas.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 22, 2015 23:00:06 GMT -5
Doesn't matter to me or the Diabetic population what is on the outside of the box, its what's on the inside!
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 22, 2015 22:51:55 GMT -5
223K is what they would be selling in 2015 if they over programmed for 20% capacity and not all three lines currently in production..
In the first scenario, I am assuming that only one line is currently firing. The second is going to come on line in 6 months into the year and the third will only be producing for three months.
In second scenario If all three lines are firing today, then 533k annual user could be serviced.
So a question arises, if you have been partnered for 6 months (26 weeks) and reach your initial production goals 2-3 weeks early, could you accomplish this with the availability of an additional line or two (just speculation)?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 22, 2015 15:54:30 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 21, 2015 10:38:02 GMT -5
Lets say that they have programmed production to match estimated sales.
We know that by the end of 2015 there will be a min of 3 lines firing, 24 /7.
We can safely assume that 1 line is currently working.
Old line capability = 2M /12 = 166K annual (as per Dr Mann's Danbury max output comment) New Lines = 110% of old line = 183K
Max Production = 167 + 183 + 183 = 533 K
Average production = (167 * 12) + (183 * 6) + (183 * 3) = 3651 / 12 = 304K * 11/12 (sales start in Feb) = 278K - 20% (estimated surplus production but hopefully less) = 223K (final answer, but hopefully higher)
223000 * 287 (monthly cost) * 12 * 23% (what mnkd gets) * 18 (conservative P/E) / 450M (share count) = 7.06 conservative pps (end of 2015) = 8.40 (if max supply matches demand)
But...If all machines are running for launch date in Feb 2015: 533000 * 287 (monthly cost) * 12 * 23% (what mnkd gets) * 18 (conservative P/E) / 450M (share count) = 16.88 pps (supply = demand)
Some may want to argue a higher P/E, and should adjust the numbers accordingly...
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 20, 2015 12:31:30 GMT -5
This is an article that actually deserves a click by readers.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 20, 2015 9:38:22 GMT -5
Hate it when the try and play the "no cutty, no pastie" games...
“The question should not be whether there is anything following Afrezza but [which of the] many opportunities to select which opportunities has substantial market potential,” MannKind’s founder Alfred Mann told investors. We will focus our limited resources on those which have the greatest and earliest opportunities. A list of drugs is being evaluated and will be reported next week to the Board of Directors at MannKind to select the right opportunities going forward.”
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No Life
Jan 20, 2015 9:21:11 GMT -5
Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 20, 2015 9:21:11 GMT -5
Coco, I feel for you, at least you dont walk around with one of these in your pocket 24/7... Looks like you will be the first one to let us know when Afrezza becomes avail?
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 14, 2015 17:17:56 GMT -5
Something just struck me as odd.
They received their 50M milestone payment for reaching a inventory production level early. This is the amount that Sanofi wanted to have on hand at the launch date. They stated that the original deadline was for 26 Jan.
Does that mean that they wanted it avail to ship for an "Imminent" launch, or have they already shipped the early production to regional/local distribution centers. Could you have the product avail before the Reps hit the streets with their training supposedly scheduled for the 26th?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 14, 2015 16:37:41 GMT -5
Anyone able to make out the side comments being made in the background?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 14, 2015 16:32:31 GMT -5
Last two milestones were for Manufacturing...50M
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 14, 2015 16:27:55 GMT -5
Session is Active 1627h EST. Looked through the presentation and not seeing anything earth shattering.
Lets see what is said...
OOG
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