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Post by spiro on Mar 3, 2014 15:45:07 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Mar 1, 2014 9:52:01 GMT -5
Disclosure, I hate shorts.
Without doubt there is considerable rotation in and out of the short position. But that doesn't make the shorts the winners all of the time. Because MNKD options have held such huge premiums the last 2 years or so, the most popular call options $5 and $7 have been expiring worthless, month after month. The real winners have been the institutions that have been selling the shorts these overpriced options. Taking a look at MNKD share prices the previous 12 months will show that the 1st 6 months MNKD's share price was below $5. The next 3 months over $6 followed by 3 months around $5. And now we have been rallying from $5 to over $6 during the last month. Because I am so dumb, I have not been been selling these covered calls the last 2 years. One thing is certain, the shorts have owned a lot of those losing options that have been expiring worthless, month after month. But you know, riverboat gamblers don't know when to quit. Shorting is there dope here. I do not know how this thing will end up, but I damn sure know the facts and truth are on my side.
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Post by spiro on Feb 28, 2014 17:32:14 GMT -5
Mnkdfan, i do not think the shorts are hedged as much as everyone believes. If you add all of the available call options together, it comes to somewhere around 30 million shares. Believe me, retail investors control a sizable amount of those shares. Heck, I own 410 of those contracts myself and know of 3 other investors who combine for another 1000 contracts. I would be surprised if the shorts were more than 50% covered with options and warrants. Some of these shorts are in a pure river boat gamble, with the deck stacked against them. Take another look at Minimed the day it was bought out. I haven't been able to locate what the short interest was that day on Minimed. articles.latimes.com/2001/may/31/business/fi-4587
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Post by spiro on Feb 28, 2014 14:50:12 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Feb 28, 2014 14:17:43 GMT -5
Every time we get a hit piece and the share price softens a bit.. the longs get rattled and start the "what if" crap. I think Vanguard and the other institutions that probably own oner 80,000,000 shares by now, have made the opposite conclusion to that of the shorts. Upon FDA approval the institution ownership will probably get to over 100 million shares rather quickly. Why would one think that the river boat gambling shorts know more than the conservative thinking institutions? Just about every promising biotech has a rather large short position. Retail investor fatigue really seems to fit here. Let's get this crap over with and start getting ready to celebrate in April.
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Post by spiro on Feb 27, 2014 16:16:53 GMT -5
I prefer the Ouija board. It keeps coming up buy MNKD every time.
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Post by spiro on Feb 27, 2014 14:50:55 GMT -5
George Rho second response.
George Rho , Contributor Comments (356) The following is another excerpt from the email: "The investor card was the 10 of swords which isn't fortuitous in this case. Whether by traditional interpretation or modern, it indicates affliction, desolation, grievances, faith shattered, enemies and grave misfortune. Nothing could be clearer. Now, why have I shared all this with you. To entertain you. Nothing more. Will I be mistaken? It sure looks like I will. If I were to look at this adcomm and PDUFA, I'd arrive at the same conclusions you have. But that's only part of what I do." My apologies Michael... I hope you'll do all the readers of this article who've taken the time to comment the courtesy of a response. For some odd reason, none of your cohorts, including the EnhydriPECorp that you noted, ever bother to defend their respective articles.
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Post by spiro on Feb 27, 2014 14:21:35 GMT -5
George Rho , Contributor Comments (355) Hello Michael, I'm not sure what to make of your article. Like your long email to me on January 26th, definitely interesting but consisting mostly of mumbo jumbo. In the interest of full disclosure, I think you should have told your readers what you told me in the email. To quote: "What I do, is the subject of reflexive ridicule - I use tarot card readings to predict outcomes of companies." The article uses a lot of quotations from various sources to make it sound reasonable, and there are a few things with which I do agree, but there's so little substance. It comes across, to me, at least, that the cards helped you reach a conclusion, then you tried to make it sound more respectable by parsing words and using facts very selectively. On a final note, as an analyst of some 25 years now, I found the statement --"There are already some experts who believe that approval of Afrezza by the PDUFA date is extremely unlikely."--rather comical, given the one expert cited is a brokerage house. Anyway, as with your long emails, I enjoyed the article. Stay in touch.
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Post by spiro on Feb 27, 2014 14:15:39 GMT -5
Well written article, but mostly nonsense. I wonder how much the hedge funds paid him to write this crap. So, he feels bad for the longs who haven't sold yet. I feel bad for the shorts who didn't cover when MNKD was below $5. At least the longs are making money. To compare Afrezza to all of those drugs with multiple and serious issues is totally ridiculous. Let's see, did I tell you Afrezza causes a slight cough when first used, but it might save your life by preventing severe hypoglycemic events. Oh by the way, you type 1's will still have to inject one time, so why use Afrezza? you only need 3 more injections a day. I also guess he is not to concerned about the type 2's, most of whom are using the Alzheimer's linked Metformin.
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Post by spiro on Feb 26, 2014 17:04:19 GMT -5
2/14/2014 58,118,039 1/31/2014 57,387,598 1/15/2014 51,450,894 12/31/2013 47,463,406 12/13/2013 46,192,326 11/15/2013 45,451,079 10/31/2013 46,576,543 10/15/2013 53,242,447 9/30/2013 51,276,337
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Post by spiro on Feb 26, 2014 9:27:13 GMT -5
I missed all the fun the past 2 days, because they put me back in the Slammer. All I had was a little chest pain and high blood pressure. I knew I was in trouble when a couple of short paramedic boogeymen showed up at my house. And then at the Slammer the ER doc couldn't have been taller than 5"5". Let me tell you, StevieRay was right, the short boogeymen were everywhere. When I got to the chest pain center, my nurse was was an obvious boogeyman, heck he could barely see over the bedrail and had some kind of Fu Manchu mustache. After I told me wife that StevieRay was right, she asked, who the devil is StevieRay? I told her, I don't know, but he was damn sure right about the short boogeyman hit men. Things didn't get better until my cardiologist show up. He was at least 6'5" and an obvious long. He was talking about some options with my wife, so I knew he was a trader. When he walked over to talk to me, I told him that i only liked the January 5 calls. He said, do you know it's almost March? I told him, March could be a little risky. The ER doc asked my wife, what is he talking about? She told him, he is probably talking about Mannkind, just ignore him and he will shut up in 30 or 40 minutes. Well after an couple tests, etc. The long guy seemed to scare off all the shorts. He came into my room and told me that all my tests were negative, except that they found a 50% stenosis in my LAD and some very minimal stenosis in a couple of other places, so it's obvious that I have some coronary artery disease like most men my age. Now here comes the bad news. He told me no salt, sugar, butter, meat, cookies, pie, McDonalds, pizza or anything else edible. He said eat a lot of rabbit food, chicken and fish, take a baby aspirin, statin and the rest of my meds and go home. I am now back at my command center, with level 2 open and anxiously awaiting the stream.
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Feb 23, 2014 16:20:56 GMT -5
I found this discussion about ARNA. from 2012. They were halted on AdCom day. i do not know how accurate this info might be.
ARNA PPS/ADCOM History
For many weeks before the last ADCOM on Sep. 16th, 2010, the ARNA PPS was stagnant for a long time even though there was significant daily volume, a pattern similar to what we have been seeing lately. The price at that time sat tight in the high $3.00's. (Unfortunately, we have not been seeing that price lately). The PPS suddenly took off 46 trading days before the ADCOM date. There was one noteworthy pullback for one day on day #44. Then it resumed its steady march toward its pre-ADCOM high of $8.00 (intraday) and $7.95 (close), reaching it on day #33, a solid double in 13 trading days. Tomorrow will be day #48 before the next ADCOM. Day #46 will be next Tuesday. The PPS held up fairly well in 2010 until 2 days before ADCOM, trading mostly in the high $6.00 to low $7.00 range. On days #2 and #1, it crashed all the way back to $3.74. On the day of the ADCOM meeting and vote, trading was halted. The day after the ADCOM vote, the PPS closed at $1.99 and continued to decline more afterward. So: (# days before ADCOM Vote) Day #48 - Where we will be tomorrow, March 2, 2012 Day #46 - Beginning of pre-ADCOM run in 2010 Day #33 - PPS intraday/closing high in 2010 ($8.00 / $7.95 = X2 increase from Day #46) Day #2 - 40% plunge to $4.13 (2010) Day #1 - Another 10% plunge to $3.74 (2010) Day #0 - 2010 ADCOM (Halted) Day # -1 - Another 47% plunge to $1.99 (close on 9/17/2010)
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Post by spiro on Feb 22, 2014 22:31:27 GMT -5
Babaoriley, the curse is officially on. I have taken out my worry beads, Greek evil eyes and various Greek cursing trinkets and have begun chanting in broken Greek. I didn't want to do this, but once I found out about the short boogeymen, I had no choice.
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Post by spiro on Feb 22, 2014 21:53:18 GMT -5
Thanks StevieRay, I never knew that the shorts were hiring professional boogeymen. That does it, I am officially placing a Greek Katara on the shorts.The Greek Katara is one of the strongest and most feared curses in existence. Once this curse is evoked, the only salvation is to get a Greek Priest to to chant a Paraklesis. The Paraklesis can only occur during the first 14 days of August. The short boogeymen are going to burn in hell by then. To make matters worse, Greek priests are kind of hard to find nowadays.
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Feb 20, 2014 22:50:51 GMT -5
Babaoriley, I somewhat agree with you. if these fund managers are wrong, some of them could certainly be in the hot seat. But I for one, do not think these fund managers are playing craps. They have extensively researched MNKD and have obviously reached a similar conclusion to that of BeyondProxy, George Rho, and/or Joe Springer. Now, if you would have said it's like playing Russian Roulette, I would have agreed with you more. At least the player wins 5 out of 6 times. Oh well, forget it, I may still be under the influence of some the meds they gave me at the hospital.
Spiro
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