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Post by compound26 on May 9, 2016 21:41:43 GMT -5
Lets break down what the 'select institutions' actually paid for their shares. Split out the warrants - A is a 2 yr warrant worth 0.75 of a share, B is an 18 month warrant worth 0.25 of a share. Between them that makes up a share with an option expiry of Jan 2018 +/- 3 months (mostly weight to the back months). OTM Call options that far out are mostly time value so looking at Jan 2018 LEAPS (because I cannot be bothered to calculate this properly) that it has value between about $0.52 and $0.56, take the lower $0.52 to account for dilution a bit as well. Therefore at $1.03 for the the share and both warrants you end up with a share price of $0.51 when you strip off and sell the warrants. That's rough but not far off. I can see the price going well under a dollar since that is where this deal values the stock currently. The above calculation is incorrect. Mannkind is getting $50 million for 50 million shares right now and if all warrants are exercised, Mannkind will get another $75 million for another 50 million shares (exercise price is $1.00 a share), so a total of $125 million proceeds for 100 million shares. Since the warrants are only on 50 millions shares, if you give them a time value of $0.50 a share (that will be probably right at the current SP of $1.10), then the time value for these shares is $25 million. $125 million minus $25 million, and we get $100 million for 100 million shares. So roughly $1.00 a share is the offering price, after taking out the time value (warrants). And if any of the warrants are not exercised, then those additional shares (for warrants) are not issued and for that particular share issued, Mannkind get $1.03 per share. |
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Post by compound26 on Apr 13, 2016 15:37:38 GMT -5
They've been doing a lot of hiring for a company that is about to run out of money. Hopefully there is money coming that we don't know about. My thoughts drift towards it looking like they may truly do the US themselves for a while - while the money lasts (SNY settlement, RLS milestone payment, sale of international rights, secondary, etc). Looking more like an agreement couldn't be reached with one of those folks that called within two days after Sanofi canceled. Don't get me wrong, if scripts started growing at a rapid rate and Cash Flow Break even could be extrapolated before the company runs out of money the next time, this is the best case scenario. If, on the other hand, it looks like the company is pushing it's sled through the ongoing proverbial mud, things will start to get very difficult for viability of the technology. I am certainly hopeful and optimistic, but I wish we were seeing job recs for folks who would be managing our partners versus hiring people who have to come up with strategies around how they are going to sell Afrezza at this stage. IMO My impression is that the two companies that called within two days after Sanofi canceled were most likely regional partners for international licensing arrangements. And whether Mannkind is pursuing to market Afrezza within US by themselves is basically a separate issue in relation to Mannkind's negotiation with these two (and other) regional partners. |
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Post by compound26 on Mar 18, 2016 14:41:08 GMT -5
I have to include myself in that category. I have probably lost $150K here in the past 10 years not to mention the opportunity to sit safely and peacefully in an index fund and have generated a nice amount there to boot. Frankly, I've been an idiot. Fortunately, it shouldn't ruin my retirement. I don't know if I'll buy back in again, we'll see... but it won't be at this price unless risk is reduced and the opportunity improves. I guess myself personally, I don't see why it's worth any less now than it was at 7, 11, etc. We are a year plus down the road, people that know about Afrezza and how to effectively use it love it, we are about to get out from under SNY who sandbagged the shit out of us as well as get 100% of the profits instead of 25/35%. I get it that expenses will be 100% ours but more than likely as a smaller entity MNKD can operate a hell of a lot more efficiently than the 3 ring circus SNY can as it's just too big of an organization. The bigger a company gets generally the more wasteful they are with money. And who's to say they were being honest with the expenses MNKD had to share with them? Over the last 3 or 4 years i've purchased this from .67 cents all the way to $9 a share with a average at $3.31 per share. Maybe it's because i still have a KoolAid stain but I feel things are better now then they were 2 years ago. There is the whole cash situation but something appears to be cooking on that as nobody seems worried on the inside and high profile executives are leaving good jobs to be part of it. Just my 2 cents. Disclaimer that i've been consistently wrong on this stock for past 3 to 4 years i've been involved with it. agree with your observation. Nate Pile, who recently quadrupled his position from 200,000 shares to 800,000 shares over the last several months, now rates Mannkind a strong buy under $2 and a buy under $5.
And as per Nate, without all the shorting, Mannkind should be trading at $8-$12 right now. stocktwits.com/NatesNotesIn my view, if Afrezza succeeds (no need for wild success, like 5 billion annual sales, etc., just a mild success, say annual sales of $500 million to $1 billion within several few years, which is totally achievable), based on Afrezza alone, Mannkind will be worth $5-$10 billion, which translates to $10-$20 a share. Giving it a some discount for time value, etc., $5-$7 a share is very reasonable. Think about it, by the time Sanofi terminated the partnership agreement, Sanofi was only able to attract 6,000 people to try out Afrezza. Give it a year, I think it is totally doable for Mannkind to attract 60,000 people to try out Afrezza using its own efforts, with the help of VDEX diabetics care and others. That alone will grow the Trx by 10 times. |
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Post by compound26 on Mar 17, 2016 16:48:34 GMT -5
My understanding is that the loan facility terminates when the partnership ends. However, any amount already borrowed by MNKD to cover their share of expenses does not have to be repaid until 2024. liane, agree. That's also my interpretation of what Matt has stated. I estimate the total outstanding under the Sanofi facility will be around 80 million by April 5 and Mannkind does not need to pay back such amount until 2024. |
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Post by compound26 on Mar 17, 2016 9:31:51 GMT -5
I must say I have really enjoyed the vigorous discussion I have read related to this post so far. Lots of differing opinions. It seems to me that what both Mannkind and Sanofi will do next is about risk management. They both face risks in arbritration. Mannkind needs money which is a present risk and Sanofi can pay off Mannkind relatively cheaply and avoid future risk. I know this sounds odd, but $200 million to Sanofi just isn't that much money. With a settlement, prior to arbitration, it removes risk for both companies. . Totally agree. If Afrezza succeeds (no need for wild success, like 5 billion annual sales, etc., just a mild success, say annual sales of 500 million to 1 billion within several few years, which is totally achievable) and Sanofi does not elect to settle right now, Sanofi could face an arbitration award of 500 million to 1 billion considering the damage it made to Mannkind (lost milestone payments, lost time, lost market opportunity, lost M&A opportunity, etc.). If that happens, Olivier Brandicourt will be in great trouble for not electing to settle right now for 100-200 million (which as you pointed out, is not a big sum from Sanofi's point of view). Additionally, a settlement will end the Sanofi-Mannkind partnership in amicable terms and help to improve Sanofi's damaged reputation (for behaving as a less trustworthy partner). I expect Sanofi to settle for 50-100 million cash + forgiving of the loan (I estimate that to be around 80 million by April 5, 2016) + release all security interest Sanofi holds on Afrezza and related assets. So the total settle amount will be 130-180 million from Sanofi. Personally, I hope the settlement turns out to be 100 million cash + forgiving of the loan + release all security interest Sanofi holds on Afrezza and related assets. The 100 million cash will extend Mannkind's runway for another 12 months. (Of course, I wouldn't mind if Sanofi pays us 200+ million.  ) And possible milestone payments from RLS + sales proceeds from sale of the headquarter building + second offering of 15-20 million of shares at a PPS above 3 will probably bring in another 100 million within the next 12 months. That will further extend Mannkind's runway for another 12 months, that is up to June/July 2018. Based on what we have heard from Matt in the last several weeks, it is possible that a settlement be announced sometime around April 5, together with announcements of one or more foreign regional partners and a contract distributor for the US. |
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Post by compound26 on Mar 7, 2016 15:16:37 GMT -5
Until MNKD can stand on its own and start producing revenue nothing is going to change. Now we are hoping for debt forgiveness? If volume was 15M + today then I would say something might have gotten leaked or picked up. I'm expecting these gains to be cut in half the last few mins of the trading day. I expected this on Friday, but we held the gains and closed a penny below the HOD. I think these small gains since our low of .64 have created a nice foundation to build off of. As we get closer to "A" Day, (the day we get afrezza back from the thieves) in theory, our value should increase by 65% right. Seems to me if you know a company could see a possible gain of 65%, why not buy ?? I agree, the volume will react along with the sp so no clue why we are up today, I hope it continues though. Good Luck Everybody , love your perspective. And I think this is actually a good perspective. And if we are taking back the 65% stolen by Sanofi, our SP should be 1.45/0.35=4.14 by the time we get back Afrezza. 1.45 being the SP before Sanofi terminated the partnership agreement and 0.35 being Mannkind's share of the profits before Sanofi terminated the partnership agreement. |
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Post by compound26 on Mar 3, 2016 0:23:50 GMT -5
The New York Times obituary is marred by sloppy journalism (wrong pic of inhaler) and by a quote from David Kliff who actively bashed Afrezza on Twitter and was a friend of Feuerstein. Kliff said nothing but kind things about Al in the article, he gave effusive praise. For all we know, he may have supplied the highest praise from among those the writer contacted and the writer went with that. I think it is irrelevant who Kliff is, or who is friends are ... but if you consider him to be an 'enemy' of Al's in some sense, his praise is all the more impressive. As for the photo. Though I posted it above and was amused by it, I consider it no big deal. The article never said or suggested that the photo was of the latest and greatest version of the inhaler. Obituaries usually feature dated but historically significant photos. Al may well have been prouder of his first working model than the later, smaller refinement of it. When Steve Jobs died many obituaries featured photos of his early devices, not the latest and greatest. E.g.: www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304447804576410753210811910 (FWIW, I saw no complaints about the incredibly dated 2007 file photo of Al.) I have no problem of NYT using an earlier version of Afrezza if NYT has clearly indicated that the picture was for an early version of Afrezza inhaler. In Job's case, we can easily tell that what was in the above picture was some old product Job worked on in his earlier years. And apple and iphone do not suffer from low awareness. In the case of Afrezza, given Afrezza suffers from low awareness painfully, people might misleadingly think what shown on the NYT article was the Afrezza inhaler that is being marketed right now. |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 26, 2016 12:44:13 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Feb 25, 2016 18:36:00 GMT -5
Does someone have an idea when this will be approved by FDA? Seems like this will be an ideal companion to go with Afrezza, at least with respect to the initial prescription. It will be great if the currently planned diabetes centers can work out a contract with ABT to provide (loan) these devices to the Afrezza users at a relatively affordable price. _____________________________________________________________________ FreeStyle Libre Pro Submitted for FDA approval, Potentially Coming to the US in 2016
8/7/15 - new now next Twitter Summary: @abbott submitted FreeStyle Libre Pro to @us_FDA, with high likelihood of approval in 2016. How a blinded 14-day sensor can help patients + healthcare team What’s the latest scoop on Abbott’s FreeStyle Libre technology coming to the US? Abbott’s quarterly update call revealed that the company has submitted the professional version of FreeStyle Libre for regulatory approval in the United States. If all goes well, the product might be approved and launched in 2016. FreeStyle Libre Pro is a bit different from the patient version of FreeStyle Libre (available in Europe) that we tested in diaTribe in January. Libre Pro allows physicians to get continuous glucose data from patients over a two-week period. It consists of a small sensor (a bit larger than a US quarter dollar coin) worn on the arm. After applying Libre Pro in the doctor’s office, it is worn for two weeks, and the sensor automatically records glucose values every 15 minutes. Patients then return to the doctor’s office, where the sensor is downloaded. Abbott has done a really good job of making the glucose data download easy to interpret, meaning healthcare providers and patients can quickly grasp what is going well and what may need improvement. Unlike the FreeStyle Libre system currently available in Europe, the Pro version does not give patients a reader device to look at glucose values in real time. While that seems like an obvious drawback, it’s a key design choice for a few reasons: Many patients don’t want to wear a sensor all the time; wearing this product occasionally (i.e., twice a year) could offer many of the benefits of more continuous glucose monitoring (i.e., more comprehensive glucose data to change therapy), but without having to wear a sensor all the time. Professional glucose monitoring systems like FreeStyle Libre Pro are generally reimbursed well by insurance, including Medicare. Medicare does not currently reimburse real-time CGM.
Many patients change their behavior in response to seeing the real-time data. A blinded sensor like FreeStyle Libre Pro makes it more likely patients will stick to their normal routine – allowing providers to get a more realistic view of a patient’s day to day management. The FDA approval process for FreeStyle Libre Pro should be easier than the real-time version, since patients can’t make insulin dosing decisions off the blinded system. Of course, we are huge fans of arming patients with real-time knowledge about their glucose, and we’re very excited about a real-time unblinded, commercial version of FreeStyle Libre coming to the US. For now, it’s not clear when that might happen, though we assume it will come after Libre Pro launches. The good news is that an FDA approval of FreeStyle Libre Pro might make the approval path for FreeStyle Libre easier. Our fingers are crossed! This US submission follows the Libre Pro’s launch in India earlier this year. diatribe.org/freestyle-libre-pro-submitted-fda-approval-potentially-coming-us-2016#sthash.ToI4I4K2.dpuf |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 18, 2016 15:43:29 GMT -5
In reflecting on the unsuccessful MNKD partnership with SNY, it's worth remembering that in 2014, many were in agreement after FDA approval of Afrezza that it was wise for the company to find a partner because of its inexperience and lack of a marketing/sales infrastructure. In June 2014, the SP spiked over $11, and after the partnership was announced it surged to well over 10. It's clear to me that Mannkind expected that Sanofi was well suited to optimize the launch and distribution, providing a revenue stream adequate to discharge debt and commercialize other TS applications. MNKD certainly was in a position at that time to strengthen its cash reserves for contingencies, since even a 50M Share offering would have provided a $400-500M cash cushion. My point is that as a partner, Mannkind, after enduring Sanofi's poor results, could also have initiated the breakup had they been in a cash position to do so; and indeed it would have been the prudent thing to do. So one can view the SNY breakup as a negative event, or as a positive one. Therefore, I'd have to say objectively that a break-up was absolutely necessary for Afrezza's future success. Their non-performance clearly shows that Brandicourt changed strategic direction and pulled the plug last Summer. Against this backdrop and the worry about operating cash, the science remains solid, the user results are extraordinary; and the barriers to success can be overcome. This says nothing of the patent portfolio and potential for other applications. As a subscriber to Nate's Notes, I agree with Mr. Pile's assessment that the risk reward picture still favors holding, and I am doing just that. Regards to all longs Chris C It seems to me that the Sanofi Board pulled the plug on Afrezza when they fired the old CEO and hired Brandicourt. I was too stupid to understand that, but I think I have company with that error. Initially, Mnkd management may have thought they would be OK. But I believe the Mnkd Board and Al knew after just a couple of months that they were in trouble. The reason I say that is that I noticed for most of last year, Hakan rarely spoke at anything but quarterly meetings. I thought this odd at the time, but now it makes sense. I believe Hakan was on his way out 8 months ago. It's unfortunate that the Desisto thing didn't work out, but I like Matt a lot. So no harm there IMHO. So here is a bold statement, I believe that Mnkd has been preparing for this split for about 8 months. That sounds reasonable. However, if that is true, Mannkind should definitely have done a secondary offering to raise at least $100-200 million when shares were trading at $5-6 around June last year. |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 12, 2016 16:19:11 GMT -5
The question about Al is interesting, because although the "can Al?" portion of the question was left unanswered, we have evidence that he is still actively involved and still enthusiastic about Afrezza. Just a couple of weeks ago, based on the transcript of the interview the the Dexcom CEO, we know that Al is still traveling (Boston), meeting with executives (Dexcom CEO) and still very interested in talking about Afrezza (Dexcom CEO said he spent a long time talking about Afrezza with Al). Still, I'd really like to hear him address shareholders directly. He is so much more inspirational than Matt or Hakan. Re-posting for those who missed this. I searched for this interview, it appears the interview was done in June 2015, although someone re-posted the interview in Yahoo a few days ago: fwww.boardcentral.com/boards/MNKD/138492755_Keep_this_mindredhaw_2000 • Feb 4, 2016 9:01 AM "Google/Sanofi/Dexcom/Joslin Center partnership that was already announced" From last June:
"Kevin Sayer, DexCom, Inc: You know what? We are not working with it, but I do have to tell you I was with Al on Saturday in Boston, and he--I spent a lot of time with him. The Afrezza patient Unidentified Audience Member [26] I'm sorry, what was the question? Kevin Sayer, DexCom, Inc. - CEO [27] He asked if we're working with the inhaled insulin, with MannKind insulin. Many of the Afrezza patients are CGM users and they're Twitter fanatics. They take pictures of their CGM lines because they're flat, because Afrezza works so quickly that they no longer eat a meal and have this big spike in glucose that goes on for a while before the insulin finally kicks in and then takes them way down because the tail lasts so long. They're in heaven. Now I don't know what that means for Afrezza sales, but there is a group of people who absolutely love it and use our product and have very good results. " This is my 5th time trying to post this. Search "Edited Transcript of DXCM presentation 9-Jun-15 9:10pm GMT" for entire presentation |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 12, 2016 15:51:46 GMT -5
Really, if true, that is some positive news. I must have missed that post. lorcan458 under Q&A's @sportsrancho Great. Thanks! |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 12, 2016 14:55:59 GMT -5
Didn't a poster just say that Al had flown to Boston and talked to the Dexcom CEO about Afrezza a few weeks ago? Really, if true, that is some positive news. I must have missed that post. |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 12, 2016 14:48:57 GMT -5
Hopefully, the WSJ wont publish the correction in 6 point type on page 39 at the bottom of the page. Again, why does not Matt issue a press release to refute this? Why wait for WSJ to correct the record? Press release likely wouldn't be seen by general population and it would create ill-will with the NYT author. Better to stay on good side and try to get future articles with positive comments/news. At least that is what I'd do. Agree. And Matt has stated that it is not possible to refute every rumors and there is no need to. As long as Matt focuses on the big pictures and get those things took care of, we will be fine. |
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Post by compound26 on Feb 11, 2016 16:23:06 GMT -5
Compound26, no offence meant: Do you understand why none of these people had a significant positive influence on endos picking up Afrezza? I realize that this past endorsement encouraged MNKD management to believe that sales to Afrezza would soar right after start of sales. Where were these people last year? I do not expect any individual to have a great impact on the Endos or PCPs picking up Afrezza. As for Dr. Aaron Kowalski himself, I understand that he spoke at the ADCOM from a public support point of view (i.e., we need to make more new treatment options to the diabetics). Now that he has started using Afrezza and seen its advantages and benefits, I hope his personal experience with Afrezza and deeper understanding of Afrezza will prompt him to more publicly advocate Afrezza. Because of his background (PhD, Chief Mission Officer and Vice President Research of JDRF), hopefully the Endos or PCPs will pay more attention and give more weight to what he says about Afrezza. We need more advocates like him. Sanofi has definitely done a poor job of promoting Afrezza, resulting in very low awareness of Afrezza. With enough awareness, even just prescribing Afrezza to patients with needle phobia, history of frequent hypos with RAAs, compliance issues with RAAs, uncontrollable A1Cs with RAAs, visual impairment or manual dexterity issues will be sufficient to make Afrezza a huge success. |
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