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Post by compound26 on Jul 14, 2015 16:11:03 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jul 14, 2015 14:41:24 GMT -5
Vetr is not exactly a solid research firm (and Zachs...). As for dilution: who knows? I doubt it (after all management has said) but don't know where the $ will come from obviously. Most likely, Mannkind will choose to roll-out the maturity date of the convertible notes (say by 12-24 months) and they should be able to reach an agreement with the note holders on that. In essence, no pay-off (of the notes) at this time, but no dilution either.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 14, 2015 14:14:16 GMT -5
EPS needs to beat this. I am staying tuned. I hope on the brink means, on the brink of becoming profitable.
Although I believe Mannkind is indeed on the brink of many good things, it is not on the brink of becoming profitable, not in the next couple of quarters. To be profitable, we will need sales of Afrezza to reach a couple of hundred million dollars a year, roughly speaking. Although we are moving towards that direction, we are not on the brink of that yet.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 14, 2015 14:04:17 GMT -5
Here is Nate's comment.
Tho it might be real (and I hate 2 discourage youngsters w/ an interest in the market), methinks the latest SA $MNKD article may be satire?
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Post by compound26 on Jul 13, 2015 18:43:18 GMT -5
IMHO I would honestly tell you I believe that 10 to 12pps is just the beginning and having endured this since 2008 I will wait for at least 3 years before making any decisions on major profit taking. I will re-evaluate periodically as I realize events may occur that change or materially effect my current long term strategy. I am in the same camp as mannmade. If Afrezza turns out to be the blockbuster as we all believe it is, I really believe Mannkind's market cap should be many times of its current value (i.e., around $2B). My current plan is to hold my shares until end of 2017.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 13, 2015 12:06:08 GMT -5
It appears its popularity is climbing up.
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #84,215 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
#7 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Health, Fitness & Dieting > Diseases & Physical Ailments > Physical Impairments
#19 in Books > Health, Fitness & Dieting > Diseases & Physical Ailments > Physical Impairments
#44 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Medical eBooks > Diseases > Diabetes
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Post by compound26 on Jul 9, 2015 14:14:37 GMT -5
Seems that afrezza wasnt represented or mentioned at all. See section 2 of the minutes. "2. Preferred Drug List (PDL) proposal Dr. Hunter recognized Dr. Hunton to present recommendations from Xerox and ODM for the preferred drug list (PDL). A copy of the proposed PDL as well as the presentation used by Dr. Hunton showing clinical changes in each drug class, market share, and recommendations, is attached to this document. The minutes reflect only those drug classes that produced discussion. The recommendations presented for all other drug classes were approved by the committee unanimously." This, when read in line with page 170 of the document, "Recommendations", "Add as Non-preferred", Afrezza and Toujeo, appears to indicate that Afrezza and Toujeo were added as "Non-preferred" with unanimous approval of the committee without any discussion of them during the meeting.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 9, 2015 12:26:20 GMT -5
The SNY partnership was announced several months (6) before the "soft" launch. My question is why didn't the education of Doctor's start sooner? It seems they took a long time to get their Affreza sales team picked & educated. They could have been quicker to the draw with all the money & resources they have at their disposal. Their is no way (IMO) SNY scraps the deal & abandons Afrezza in early 2016! Feeling your pain but hopeful TV ad's are a game changer! Sales are always the determining factor. Scripts need to keep climbing and sales need to increase. We don't want Sanofi to have any other choice then to continue on with Afrezza in 2016. If sales meander as they are, I'd be very worried come early next year. That's why we want to see the urgency of getting the word out. Get it on TV NOW! I have confidence in Sanofi (even though they are based on France . They are experienced in the Diabetes market. Remember that they ditched Exubera to Pfizer. Therefore, Sanofi saw Exubera's weakness before its launch. Then, they chose to partner with Mannkind on Afrezza despite Pfizer's failure in launch Exubera. This shows Sanofi's confidence in Afrezza. We all know that Pfizer's launch of Exubera was a failure, for many reasons. one of the reasons, it was argued was that the CEO at Pfizer did not have drug launch experience. He used to work at McDonald (and therefore I would expect him to see hamburg sales grew everyday (see quote below)). On the other hand, Sanofi knows diabetes and insulin. Its CEO knows drugs and drug launches. They know how long it takes to build a blockbuster insulin drug (Lantus) and how to achieve that. (It appears Lantus US sales does not reach $1 billion until the 9th year of its launch). Plus, they must has learned something from Pfizer's failure in the launch of Exubera. So it will be unimaginable for Sanofi to give Afrezza anything less than 3-5 years time to ramp up. Attachment Deletedbmartinmd.com/2007/12/number-9-exubera-market-withdr/ "The seemingly abrupt decision to pull the Exubera plug by Pfizer’s CEO Jeffrey Kindler, a lawyer whose corporate experience included high-level positions at McDonald’s, was criticized for being misplaced in the steep-investment, slow-development world of the pharmaceutical industry. A prescription pharmaceutical’s not a McDLT (which may have actually been on the nationwide market longer than Exubera). But analysts were quoted as generally supporting the decision to pull the drug." www.ceocfomobile.com/DanceBioPharm15-CEOCFOmobile2.pdfCEOCFO: What have you learned from your prior experience that is helping smooth the process? Dr. Patton: We worked with Pfizer for twelve years on Exubera. Before that we worked four years on our own and then we partnered with them. We partnered early in the development process, so we were the technology supplier and they were running the show. They did a great job until the end. One of the problems in big pharma, at least in this particular experience with Pfizer, was that the personnel kept changing; not so much in the deep science, but more in the marketing and senior management and clinical. The faces kept changing. T hen ultimately the CEO and the senior management changed right when the product was approved. The guy who came in was not about science or medicine. He had a lawyer and accountant background, so they did not really know that much about insulin. Insulin is a serious drug and it takes a couple of years for a new insulin form to take off. Then they usually become multibillion dollar products. Those guys pulled the plug on the product that we had been giving our lives to for almost two decades. They just decided that it was not selling fast enough they never really gave the drug a chance (it was pulled after only about 9 months on the market). One of the things you learn is that when you are building a biotechnology company investors want you to partner with big pharma because they have lots of money and supposedly know what they are doing. Often they do not know what they are doing. It is better for you to hang on to your product and carry it as far as you can, even though investors are driving you to partner or sell out. It is not necessarily the best thing for the product. In this case, here was something that we knew that the patients really wanted and with Pfizer’s mighty help, we had gotten it approved in Europe and the US as effective and safe and then here comes a naive executive team that would rather take a tax write off on the program, had no faith in it and killed a product that would have benefited millions. Therefore, the big lesson there is, “Do not get yourself in that situation again, John!”
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Post by compound26 on Jul 9, 2015 11:32:03 GMT -5
Is there some indication that Sanofi had anything to do with this? That guy seems to crank out ebooks on drugs. Wonder if he's paid to do so or just found a niche opportunity in taking the package inserts and putting the info in a more readable form. dreamboatcruise, even if this guy has nothing to do with Sanofi or Mannkind, it's still some publicity. Any publicity is better than no publicity. I like it.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 9, 2015 11:19:56 GMT -5
I guess we will find out what their commitment is by years-end. January, 2016 is the first month they can back out of the Mannkind deal. I sure hope they put a much bigger effort in before that month is reached. If we lope along like this, it's not fair to judge Afrezza if relatively no one has even heard of the medicine. Brian, I sure wish Afrezza is being advertised on TV right now. On the other hand, there is merit in the argument that it will be more effective to run the TV ads when the doctors are better educated and the insurance coverage for Afrezza improves after the initial 6 months of launch. We all know that TV ads are expensive, Sanofi sure does not want to waste the money easily. Also, what if Sanofi spends a lot of money right now on TV and because the doctors are not well educated yet and the insurance coverage is not ideal yet, and therefore the demand for Afrezza is not as high as expected? Therefore, I think it is reasonable for Sanofi to fire their ammunition efficiently and economically. If we consider that Afrezza was officially launched in the beginning of Feb., it hasn't been 6th months yet. We have already seen print ads, Afrezza coaching programs, and Afrezza educating dinners for doctors. It is reasonable to expect that we will see TV ads in probably a few months (I would guess starting from Sept/Oct). In the meantime, TV news reports like the one Eric has done and the one you are arranging for will be golden (in my eyes better than TV ads!). They will be posted on Twitter and forwarded through emails (I do not think many people will forward Afrezza TV ads to others). It will also be free to Sanofi and Mannkind! With respect to the news report you are arranging, if your Endo can also show up on the news report, that will be especially helpful. This will send a strong and encouraging message to the others physicians regarding Afrezza prescription. All in all, many thanks to you and your Endo for your great efforts in spreading the news about this life-changing medicine! Thumbs up! I believe, with the print ads, Afrezza coaching programs, Afrezza educating dinners for doctors, social media (Twitter and blogging), news reports that are coming up more and more often (the LA times report, the Chicago Tribune report, Eric's new appearance, the report you are arranging for, Sam's letter to the Atlantic Diabetes Center newsletter, etc.) and the better A1Cs that the prescribing doctors are seeing more and more, the momentum is building. We are definitely approaching the tipping point, steadily.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 9, 2015 10:51:13 GMT -5
Harry, you are all over the place! Thumbs up!
I am not sure about the cost of the Kindle ads, but I personally am very pleased that Sanofi has chosen this as one of the media to advertise. I love Kindles and have bought a few of them.
IMHO, Sanofi and its advertising agency are planning smartly and strategically. Based on the different kinds of media they are using to advertise, it feels like they are striking the attacks from all angles and in 3D. Thumbs up!
P.S., just realized it is a book about Afrezza, not an ad. I wish the book is free instead of $0.99. I also wish we have an ad on Kindle. You know what I am referring to -- the ads that show up on Kindle screen when you are not reading.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 8, 2015 16:01:37 GMT -5
NC, that's more than fantastic! I think you've said before, but I can't remember, your locale is where? I believe it is Raleigh, NC.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 7, 2015 17:51:12 GMT -5
You're probably right and I was reading too much into it. Guess I view the DTC ad as just being one small part of an overall effort that is playing out. Here is the latest from Matt The DTC has started. SNY is working on getting Afrezza on most formularies and off of PA More Sales Reps are going to be handling Afrezza shortly. SNY/MNKD are working on a global approach to marketing Afrezza Pediatric trials being finalized and starting soon. AF comment about SNY ready to quit has no merit. Once mandated trials are started SNY is looking into label enhancing trials. That's great. Thanks for sharing the good news. Perhaps Matt should also share some of these news/updates on his Twitter account. Elon Musk does it all the time.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 5, 2015 21:43:11 GMT -5
wivb.com/2015/07/05/local-diabetic-swears-by-breakthrough-drug/wp.me/p4ySte-C7TBUFFALO, N.Y.(WIVB)- These days, all Eric Fenar needs to do to regulate his blood sugar, is breathe. The type one diabetic is using a new treatment for diabetes called Afrezza. Since Feb. 4, he’s been inhaling his insulin instead of injecting it. Fenar researched the drug for months before the FDA gave it the green light in 2013. When it was finally on the market, he was at the front of the line. “When Afrezza finally became available to the public, I had doctors appointments set up every single week for a month out, because the day it became available I wanted to be one of the first,” he told News 4. In fact, he was the second person in the U.S. to try the drug. Since he’s been on Afrezza, his average blood sugar has dropped from 190 to 143, which is near the pre-diabetic range; a place Fenar never thought he’d be. “There were times when my blood sugar would be 200-300, and you’re sitting there, and you’re just like ugh. When you have a high blood sugar, you just, your vision gets blurry, you’re drinking, you’re urinating a lot, you just feel yucky,” he said. But since February, he hasn’t had a blood sugar spike and told News 4 he’s never felt better. Afrezza is still new to the market; it’s not recommended for kids or anyone with asthma. And because it’s so new, it’s not cheap and isn’t covered under Medicaid. So could it be the new way to manage diabetes? Many in the medical community are approaching with caution. “It’s tough to say because it is not necessarily going to replace using insulin in general, it is just making it a much easier dosage–a much easier form for the patients to be able to use,” said pharmacist Anthony Alter. For a lot of people, the big draw to Afrezza is ditching the needles, but for Fenar, it’s how much faster it works. “The old insulin, like I said was 45-60 minutes. This starts to work in 12 to 15,” he said. And Fenar hasn’t been shy about sharing his positive experience. He’s jumped online to Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, getting in touch with diabetics all around the globe, trying to spread the word. “I think there’s only maybe like 2,000 of us in the U.S. currently on Afrezza. Everytime I talk to diabetics, and I talk to a lot of diabetics, they’ve never heard of Afrezza. So I’m hoping to change that,” Fenar said.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 3, 2015 15:53:07 GMT -5
Why shouldn't Mannkind simply pay-off the $100M convertible notes using available proceeds from the milestone payments? It will take some time for Mannkind to be profitable. They need to have sufficient cash reserves to cover their operating expenses (including their ongoing researches on the Technosphere projects). Imagine your just started your law/medical school and have taken a $100,000 student loan to pay your tuition and living expenses. The loan will be sufficient to cover your next three/fours of study. You have drawn 100% of the loan and deposited the funds in your bank account. Now you have a large cash deposit in your bank account and you are able to pay off the loan with the money in your bank account. Should you take the cash deposit out of the bank account and pay off the loan? You do not. With the loan, you can stop worrying about money during your law/medical school years. Once you graduate, you find a good position (and therefore become profitable, so to speak), you will pay off the loan easily. At that time, you find that the loan is a smart investment, with a very high return (to you).
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