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Post by spiro on Jan 2, 2014 21:21:28 GMT -5
83 degrees in Miami, sweating and still running the AC. BTW, I hope to be at the conference in Boca.
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2014
Dec 31, 2013 19:20:55 GMT -5
Post by spiro on Dec 31, 2013 19:20:55 GMT -5
Bio,
It's just another dumb CEO, who is clueless about what Afrezza can do. He obviously knows little about Afrezza.
Happy New year to all,
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Dec 29, 2013 17:56:33 GMT -5
Now that is very logical speculation Rak.
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Post by spiro on Dec 29, 2013 15:10:33 GMT -5
Babaoriley, I have always been very confident in the Afrezza/Technosphere technology. I have also stated numerous times that Big pharma would not let MNKD take Afrezza to the market and that MNKD would get an offer they can't refuse. Over the past 3 years, the marketing surveys have been increasingly favorable for MNKD. Analysts like BeyondProxy, Joe Springer. George Rho and others like Greenhill have clearly reached a conclusion that Afrezza has the potential to become a mega blockbuster drug. Because of this favorable evolution of Afrezza possibly becoming a game changing new treatment for both type 1 and type 2 diabetics, I simply do not not believe that Al Mann would even remotely consider selling Afrezza only, for anything less than $13 -$15 billion dollars. IMO, that is an incredibly low number, for a drug which could easily reach $10 billion or more annual worldwide sales, within 5 years of product launch. The old Exhubera argument has become a little stale now. The shorts will need to make up something else.
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Post by spiro on Dec 29, 2013 10:33:40 GMT -5
Babaoriley,
I think you may have low expectations syndrome. You remind me a little of OPC, on the YMB. For you to conclude that MNKD is worth so little, then one could think, that you obviously have not reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy, Joe Springer, George Rho and others, on Afrezza's potential. I do not think Greenhill would have gotten involved, if their D.D. showed similar expectations to yours. If one truly believes that the buyout value of MNKD is only $12 -$15, considering the high rate of failure in biotech' stocks, it would not be prudent to risk funds in MNKD, at this time. I personally would not risk my funds, without having much greater expectations. Selling is even more advisable, if you are currently sitting on a profit with your MNKD holdings and have such low expectations.
JMHO,
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Dec 23, 2013 19:10:29 GMT -5
OOG,
I believe your analysis is very solid. A $10 billion buyout at this late stage is nonsense. For a company to even consider offering $10 billion for Afrezza, that would mean that they have reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy and believe that Afrezza will in fact become a monster selling drug. Baborliley, Al Mann could not possibly be dumb enough to sell a future $15 - $20 billion a year drug for only $10 billion. I say sealed bids, with bidding starting at $50 billion. OK, so this is not going to happen. But, $400 million upfront for a 40% share of Afrezza, etc, etc sure is better than a major pharma losing out on Afrezza. As I said in a previous post, I would not want to be one of the losing CEO's in these negotiations, should Afrezza become this monster drug.
Merry Christmas and/or Happy Holidays to everyone, see you soon in Nirvana, or maybe not…...
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Dec 16, 2013 21:58:44 GMT -5
Rak,
I met Ashiwi at a KOS shareholder meeting in Miami. Ashiwi was interrogating the CEO. I just happened to be sitting next to him. I asked a couple of meek questions. We have been friends since that meeting. Ashiwi got me involved in Mederex before it's buyout and I have recommended MNKD to him. I am sure if MNKD progressing as we think it will, Ashiwi will be joining us in retirement.
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Post by spiro on Dec 16, 2013 16:02:54 GMT -5
Thanks Doc, That's a very impressive list. I liked this one in particular-
12-Mar-2009 $46.9 billion United States of America Genentech, Inc. Advised Roche Holding Ltd., a world-leading provider of healthcare pharmaceuticals and diagnostics, on its acquisition of the outstanding publicly held interest in Genentech, Inc., a leading biotechnology company Switzerland Roche Holding Ltd.
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Post by spiro on Dec 15, 2013 17:25:03 GMT -5
Chris,
It's just my way of predicting the chances of the actually event. Say they were bets. Within 10 days you would bet 40 to win 60. The 20 day bet would be , lay 50 to win 50. The 60 day bet would be to lay 90 to win 10. Now that's confidence. The bigger question is, How many partner's, if any have reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy? I am sure Greenhill has some of the best poker players in the world working on this deal for MNKD. No deal - No pay. I wouldn't be surprised if BeyondProxy had gotten there hands on Greenhill's or some drug companies research on MNKD.
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Post by spiro on Dec 15, 2013 16:30:18 GMT -5
Baba,
A major pharma partner is the shorts worst nightmare. They will stampede to switch sides and go long. You are grasping, if you think the shorts will wait for a couple of most likely ineffective hit pieces. The partner will add the needed credibility and PR to help move Afrezaa past the FDA and quickly gain European approval. MNKD will soon be a must have stock in most institutional portfolios. Check with Vanguard about that. Those who worry about the market cap will certainly miss out on this explosive opportunity. The shorts best argument has always been that MNKD will not attract a major partner. If that happens, they will head for shelter and move on.
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Post by spiro on Dec 15, 2013 15:21:24 GMT -5
I believe it is safe to assume that at least one, if not several major pharmaceutical companies have reached the same conclusion on Afrezza as BeyondProxy ( www.beyondproxy.com ) and the several doctors that post here. if that is the case, then certainly the CEO's of these companies are probably be quite nervous about the possibility of not being selected by MNKD as the partner. If in fact they have reached this logical conclusion, I believe they are in the process of making a serious offer to MNKD. I also do not think the 74 day letter is an issue, nor FDA approval. If FDA approval becomes a temporary issue, MNKD and it's partner will simply proceed with overseas approvals. If I am correct in my thinking here, I believe a partnership announcement is imminent and the terms will be surprisingly favorable for MNKD. Spiro's definition of Imminent - An event that could occur within a reasonable amount of time. Spiro's probabilities are as follows: Within 10 days - 40% Within 20 days - 50% Within 30 days - 75% Within 60 days - 90% By FDA approval - 100% To avoid being called an hysterical pumper. I will leave share price speculation to others. But consider the following chain reaction of events that will occur shortly after a major partner announcement. Just to name a few. A. Halt in trading- maybe, this one could be fun. B. Shorts panic - remember they think that Afrezza is just like Exhubera and that big pharma will not partner. C. Immediate share price target upgrades - this one will be fun. D. Within days, new analysts come on board with nice targets. E. Institutional buying will explode. F. Retail investor fatigue will be gone. G. PR and conferences from new partner will provide interesting times for longs.
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Post by spiro on Dec 12, 2013 16:29:34 GMT -5
Great article, I guess the divorce and the Arditi stuff didn't matter to this guy. This article must have depressed the lemonade out of someone. The facts are just overwhelming. What a huge story we have happening here. So why is the price below $5 ?
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Post by spiro on Dec 9, 2013 19:54:56 GMT -5
A.F. will be back soon. He is probably working on developing another desperate attack on Afrezza and MNKD. Ok, let me guess what his next attack will say. He will say that it has not disclosed that Afrezza may cause lung cancer, strokes, high blood pressure, heart attacks, broken bones, jock itch, athlete's foot and measles. Not excluding rabies, ringworm, ticks and fleas. I have already ordered a flea collar.
Of course, this is JMHO,
Spiro
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Post by spiro on Dec 9, 2013 17:54:26 GMT -5
MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD ) is hoping for a big year in 2014. The company's entire future pretty much hinges on the approval of its inhaled insulin product Afrezza and its delivery apparatus dubbed 'Dreamboat' next year. To recap, Mannkind reported positive late-stage trial data for its Afrezza/Dreamboat combo this year, and subsequently filed a NDA with the FDA. An approval could come as early as next April. Why is MannKind worth watching? The diabetes market is ridiculously big and is expected to grow to a mind-boggling $100 billion by 2018. It's so big that both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's fast-acting insulin products have reached megablockbuster status, and sales are still growing. What's important to keep in mind, however, is that the Afrezza/Dreamboat combo is actually superior to these products in terms of delivering insulin. Specifically, Afrezza is an ultra-fast acting insulin that reaches peak levels within 14 minutes. As such, it is much better at mimicking the natural function of the pancreas than the fast-acting insulin analogues that take up to 30 minutes. In a nutshell, Afrezza/Dreamboat may be the product of choice, if approved, because it is inhalable and provides faster peak insulin levels. Even though MannKind does have a high market cap for a developmental stage biotech, this is definitely a company to watch in the New Year. www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/09/dynavax-mannkind-and-orexigen-could-have-a-big-yea.aspx
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Post by spiro on Dec 5, 2013 14:38:13 GMT -5
Hi Doc,
It sure seems like things are progressing nicely. I know that a lot of your diabetic patients will soon be very happy campers. As for Vegas, I can't wait, but I don't want to be the guy locked on the roof, like in the movie "Hangover".
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