I no longer have a meaningful position in MNKD and the sale price will probably buy me groceries or a nice vacation depending on if it's 1$ or 10$. Having said that, I think selling the company is the best option at this point IF there's anyone interested to buy. Even though the product is promising on paper, the demand simply isn't there (no point addressing why.. buyers seldom care for these explanations). Plus the seller has their back against the wall. It's this or BK.
I see figures of 2.5B being thrown here as a min price for a sale but frankly, I think Al would be very lucky to recover 500M of his 1B given how grim the prospects are.
@neil I see your post as rather thoughtless.
1. It's not a product that's "promising on paper." Just the opposite, it's terrific in the real world--which is what really counts. Do you want to disagree about that?
>> I should rephrase that. The promise was never translated into demand is my intention. Granted- my initial expectation was that the product looked like a winner in every angle and it shouldn't take a lot of marketing effort to make it fly. Like I said before, blaming SNY intentions or MNKD's ineptitude will take us nowhere. It is what it is...today.
2. Your comment that "the demand simply isn't there" is specious. You can't have demand without product awareness and an affordable price. Until PWDs become aware of Afrezza and it's priced appropriately it's silly to say there isn't any demand.
>> I've taken an opposite viewpoint - that SNY did put in _some_ effort although it's not exactly the way or at the scale that we wanted it to go. My conclusion is that there genuinely is no demand.
3. You comment that "It's this or BK" is equally specious. MNKD has said repeatedly that they have sufficient cash to extend well into the 2nd half of 2016. That gives them more than enough time to create additional TS and/or Afrezza partnerships. If one or two partnerships generate cash then MNKD's runway will extend into 2017.
>> Sure. That's what MNKD said but then again.. I'm in the fool me twice school of thought here.
4. Finally, saying that "Al would be lucky to recovery 500M of his 1B given how grim the prospects are" is equally foolish since you're basing that statement on the current share price which almost everyone on the planet concedes has been manipulated by the shorts and hedge funds. The risks associated with investing in Afrezza and TS are considerly less now than they ever have been, particularly with this low a share price. Afrezza is proving it's effectiveness every day and interest in TS is increasing.
>> My 'valuation' as it were.. is not based on current stock price at all but given the precarious position they are in. A potential buyer has a lot more leverage today and if we choose to believe that MNKD is artificially suppressed by the evil forces of sneaky shorts and hedge funds, imagine what they can do if they want to really drive the nail in. They couldn't handle it when the company was much healthier. I don't see what they can offer now.
The only real problem MNKD has is a cash problem for late 2016 through some part of 2017 when Afrezza sales and TS partnerships are very likely to be revenue generating. In the grand scheme of things, that's a lot smaller problem for them to solve that what most biotechs have to solve when they're dealing with drugs that may or may not ever reach the market. If the company weren't handicapped by the huge short interest and stock price manipulation they wouldn't have a cash problem because their stock price would be considerably higher and they'd be able to do a $100m secondary with no more than 10% dilution. A small price to pay for success.
All that said, MNKD does have a real, big problem because they aren't playing on a level playing field. The hedge funds and shorts have a lot more firepower than they do and everyone knows it. If they can break that stranglehold then everything else becomes trivial. If they can't then it will be significantly more difficult to succeed. All said, I suspect we're in violent agreement about that.
Bottom line is that you're being unduly pessimistic. Why?
>>For the very simple reason that optimism cost me a lot of money. I don't think you should spend any time to go through my post history but you'll see I'm just bitter because I feel like I was jerked around and gave the benefit of doubt to MNKD too many times.
