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Post by _neil on Jun 29, 2015 18:01:09 GMT -5
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Post by _neil on Jun 28, 2015 15:54:34 GMT -5
Greece has been dominating the news cycle for the past couple days. If there is a broad market sell off, I might use margin to add more to my position. The way I see it, Greece, Eurozone, US macroeconomics- none of these have even a tertiary connection to the prospects of MNKD.
Thoughts?
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Post by _neil on Jun 24, 2015 9:42:09 GMT -5
Can someone please be so kind as to summarize? I can't watch any webcasts for a few more hours. From the posts here, it sounds like they were well focused on execution. That's a good sign.
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Post by _neil on Jun 23, 2015 11:36:22 GMT -5
Well this is disappointing. I wasn't really considering the VA to drive a lot of demand for Afrezza. I don't know about this but isn't the VA generally on the trailing edge for medical care?
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Post by _neil on Jun 20, 2015 12:37:46 GMT -5
Ugh.. baba.. it was a simple matter of sample size. Yes, 14/15 having positive results is encouraging. The sample size however when the TAM is in the millions is insignificant. The reason I need to be sure helps me decide whether I spend my dry powder or continue holding. I neither can nor need to prove my long/short position without violating my privacy and it's tedious that you raise it every single time I come here looking for clarification. Since when is not having a rock solid faith in the stock a concrete evidence of a short position? I hope you'll at least concede there is a wide enough spectrum between 'this stock is doomed' and 'this is the next TSLA'. Your post can stand on its own without that silly insinuation. Okay, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now, not that anyone gives a hoot what I think, one way or the other. But, if what you said about buying the stock right after approval and being stuck with an average price of $7.30 is accurate, well, perhaps you're really "bitterneil." And I can understand that, I've been there many times, but it doesn't really get one anywhere to be bitter. Did you buy more after approval because of all the celebrating on this board? If so, well, I can understand that, too, and a little bitterness against overly gleeful, giddy and optimistic folk can be tolerated, even indicated, at such moments, but you need to get over it, and change your handle like Lynn suggested - "poorneil" is not what you want to go through message board life with! Heck, if you liked it at $7.30, you should have loved it under $4! Yeah, I know, you were too poor at that point. Maybe before too long, you'll be a winner at $7.30! Nope.. I am not bitter(I tell myself).. just skeptical and a little trigger shy. I did love it under 4 and that's when I got in and out of the warrant purchase. And nope, I don't blame the board at all for my mistimed purchases. I didn't know of this board's existence until late last year. I am seriously considering the change of handle though. What's the point of being in a community if I cannot learn? richneil sounds vulgar and it's inaccurate. I'll change it to something more positive on the next uptick. |
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Post by _neil on Jun 19, 2015 20:23:29 GMT -5
Au contraire, poorneil. The TAM is what makes MNKD so compelling - it is so large that IS the investment thesis. If one did not expect Afrezza to capture a significant share of the market why even consider it as an investment and why pay any attention to it? Why do you not question the relevancy of the CURRENT insulins? Because they all act the same way - given dosage requirements, patient sensitivities etc. They work in ANY given patient, yet all patients must use varying dosages and get it dialed in for their own situations. People never question the thesis that any given patient can take Humalog with the same expected outcome yet have doubts accepting that any given patient can expect the same result from Afrezza. The patient group we are seeing are all patients who HAVE tried the RAA's - and got the expected results accordingly. Nobody doubted or questioned them - after all one SHOULD get the same results - 4.5 million others are doing so. When those RAA's were launched THEY were all getting similar results from "small sample sizes". The fact those results were unacceptable led them to try Afrezza. Now the very same group of patients that got identical results from "proven" insulins are somehow trying to rig the game when they are getting identical results from Afrezza. Makes no sense to me, but it's a free country and we can all believe or disbelieve what we want. Dudley- The reason I got into MNKD is precisely because the TAM is huge. The success stories so far from users like Sam are very encouraging but the entire sample size of the people reporting is insignificant at this point in time. This could be because most people aren't interested in really sharing with the world their success stories. I would like to see more Sams rather than the already proven efficacy for the small sample size that we so often hear about. The science is the truly compelling part of the equation while we await for more data on what I would consider 'statistical slam dunk'. I guess I need to disclose the fact that I am an engineer that can't help but be overly conservative. Lynn - Thanks for offering your perspective. My handle is supposed to show my current state- no fault of MNKD's. I intend to not remain poor for long though. Since you asked, I am LONG MNKD with the average purchase price ~$7.30. I made the mistake of adding to my position after approval and am currently cautious about averaging my price down. I made a small warrant purchase and sold off after making a small profit so I'll keep taking opportunistic bites. Interesting how much room for interpretation there is in a simple word - 'significant'. Have a great weekend all. |
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Post by _neil on Jun 19, 2015 18:51:37 GMT -5
Ugh.. baba.. it was a simple matter of sample size. Yes, 14/15 having positive results is encouraging. The sample size however when the TAM is in the millions is insignificant. The reason I need to be sure helps me decide whether I spend my dry powder or continue holding.
I neither can nor need to prove my long/short position without violating my privacy and it's tedious that you raise it every single time I come here looking for clarification. Since when is not having a rock solid faith in the stock a concrete evidence of a short position?
I hope you'll at least concede there is a wide enough spectrum between 'this stock is doomed' and 'this is the next TSLA'. Your post can stand on its own without that silly insinuation.
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Post by _neil on Jun 19, 2015 13:11:00 GMT -5
Thank you very much patryn. You very clearly explain why I feel uneasy quoting the success stories of the twitter users in general and Sam in particular. The drug working for a few people is great news for those particular users. Unless it is scientifically (post release journal publications and post market studies) proven to work, all the good news doesn't mean much to us investors. I appreciate Sam being a one-man salesforce but I'd rather see this trumpeting from the official channels.
As of today, the hb1ac control achieved by users is statistically insignificant. I do believe the science but for me, it's far from being able to confidently say this will be standard care practise.
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Post by _neil on Jun 11, 2015 11:53:40 GMT -5
Then tell them you are going to report them to your States Medical Board. It's up to them to be updated on APPROVED drugs. Also, show them Afrezzauser on Youtube. Take them to the website. I'm guessing if you are asking them and they are doing no follow-up they aren't going to learn. It's your right to have FDA approved drugs to treat the disease. Is this true? That seems unfair to the doctors. Why should they be reported if their professional opinion- however static it is- differs from a patient's opinion? The patients have the right to change doctors but it seems like an unfair burden on doctors to absolutely be abreast with the current state of the art. This is unnecessary antagonizing IMO. I am invested in MNKD but I would definitely want success based on unbiased professional backing. Not due to shareholder induced prescriptions. Correct me if I'm misreading your intent. |
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Post by _neil on Jun 11, 2015 11:46:32 GMT -5
That Olson has an agenda is clear as day. Rather than not attending this, I guess a bit more preparation into expecting and answering them with confidence was the minimum expectation from the MNKD team. I don't think their inability of coming up with right things to say was the reason for the latest slide but nevertheless, if I were someone they listened to - I would advice them to stay out of limelight unless they had something substantial to share. They've proven many times that answering tough questions is not in their wheelhouse. They can be bluntly honest about everything or they can stress on the positives to be shareholder friendly.
They mumble about their inability to disclose good news or meekly concede about the short term hardships without offering confidence on how these are truly not a bother. I haven't had a long (or successful) investing career as most of the others on this board but from what I've seen, this company has to be strangest combination of a great product and bad salesmen.
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Post by _neil on Jun 10, 2015 12:05:20 GMT -5
Welcome back, Sprio. Although we miss your contribtuions, correlation tells us that we should all pitch in to send all Spiros on a round-the-world tour on an Afrezza branded sailboat. That means we'll have ~6 month rally in PPS.
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Post by _neil on Jun 8, 2015 15:42:56 GMT -5
You can "say" that again, alethea! Gotta love it, so far. poorneil, $7 seems like a good place for you to exit, you're clearly not meant to stay long here. Nice double entendre, if I do say so myself.  Everyone, even the most optimistic longs has a price at which they believe the share value is out of line with current financial performance and discounted present value of future unknowns. It's not crazy for someone unable to sleep at night to exit with a small profit. Personally though, I am waiting until at least we see some resolution to this ridiculous short interest and how the shorts unwind their positions from here. I'm talking about selling puts purely to be able to sleep better. My DD tells me selling MNKD under 12$ is leaving money on the table but the experience of holding this stock has left me wary. I don't have the stomach to make this my second biggest holding and stand up to the heavyweight master manipulators. Ideally I should sell and never look back but since I have the nagging feeling that this will be the blockbuster that I was hoping for, I'll try to minimize my loss (and profit). I'm not done with this board though  |
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Post by _neil on Jun 8, 2015 10:13:17 GMT -5
Is there a word to describe the feeling of unease over current good news since in the recent past bad news always followed good news? I am geeting close to my average purchase price and this feeling is creeping up on me. I will take baba's advice and not sell as soon as I cross over into green but sell puts instead (fingers crossed I will be able to break through this week)
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Post by _neil on Jun 3, 2015 9:55:45 GMT -5
The LA times article reiterates what we already know about MNKD. The Hea dof Sanofi Marketing for Afrezza has good words to say about their efforts. Anyone have a linkedin account to verify what his previous marketing efforts were and how he fared? I was thinking this could be a good way to assess SNY's intent -as to whether or not it's putting the best people available to drive this effort. I'm not implying SNY is not trying enough - trying to gauge the urgency on their side. www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mannkind-drug-20150603-story.html#page=1 |
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Post by _neil on Jun 2, 2015 18:37:27 GMT -5
hmm.. . looks like options exercised. I was hoping for open market purchases. Doesn't really mean anything unless they hold on through the end of the year at least. I don't think this is particularly meaningful to the market.
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