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Post by _neil on May 1, 2015 15:10:23 GMT -5
I used to think I was a long but I am extemely concerned at this price. I got in after approval and have a quite of bit of red ink to cover before I break even. I invested more than I should have into this and I'm hanging on by the thin threads of evidence that the formulation actually works and SNY is too mature a company to partner up with a small cap with intentions to destroy it.
I got in asking primarily these questions :
1.If you can get your medicine that's faster in and faster out in inhaler form instead of an injection (provided the convenience isn't too expensive) why wouldn't you?
2.If the company that has this medicine makes claims that other drugs could be inhaled to bypass the liver/better absorption at lower dosage etc., why wouldn't it try?
My answers to both those questions remain the same today as they were when I got in. But looking at the insider sales and the generally uninspiring leadership, I am starting to learn that there's more than what meets the eye here. I am getting the hell out if it ever hits 6$ again. It will still be a loss but that's something I can stomach.
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Post by _neil on Apr 30, 2015 14:48:52 GMT -5
afrizzle etc.. kudos to your courage on accumulating more. It feels like masochism just holding onto my position. This stock will be a lesson for me to stay away from any and all pharma stock no matter how it turns out in the end. I was doing alright sticking to tech stocks and my mistake was treating MNKD as a tech stock. My aging accelerated over the past six months and my gf doesn't like my new hairline  |
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Post by _neil on Apr 29, 2015 19:41:22 GMT -5
Hahahaha.. nope. I have zero skills selling anything. I was just trying to tone down the 'Billions worth' implication of the title.
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Post by _neil on Apr 29, 2015 11:25:42 GMT -5
I for one was not being sarcastic. My reasons are only my understanding as to why TSLA and MNKD are different. That wasn't a wishlist as to what I want changed in MNKD. (Not that it matters what I wish for)
This is off topic but speaking of young blondes, I was reading up on Theranos led by the youngest female billionaire. So much smoke and mirrors that I am suspicious of young CEOs in general and good looking ones in particular.
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Post by _neil on Apr 28, 2015 23:51:34 GMT -5
I fantasize that MNKD is another TSLA but I know for a fact that it is not. Here are my reasons why it's not an apr comparison.
1. Management. I have no respect for showmanship when it comes to industry leaders but at least he is openly enthusiastic about his product and never misses a chance to promote his company. MNKD management on the other hand is little league at that game compared to Musk's pro game. Musk is young and full of passion and takes pride in the ownership of his company while almost all of MNKD's management is one foot in the grave and have their retirements to take care of. They might also be jaded by how long and hard it has been just to get here.
2. Attention. The product is not sexy. It has great potential and it solves a real problem but there won't be the sort of attention lavished on it like a gleaming fast car. It will be a slow and long ride.
3. Product pipeline. Tesla can make plans and execute with little regulation stopping them. MNKD can have an excellent Technosphere application but still has to give the FDA a couple years before they can even claim to have something in their pipeline. You can think of it as TSLA only having the roadster
4. Control. Tesla controls the design, pricing, marketing, sales and support of their product. MNKD is flying blind with SNY partnership compared to what TSLA has
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Post by _neil on Apr 28, 2015 15:37:38 GMT -5
Sorry.. bad phrasing on my part. I meant to say it doesn't have anything significant to add to Afrezza. Certainly not Billions worth advertising like the title seemed to suggest.
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Post by _neil on Apr 28, 2015 11:53:33 GMT -5
Billions? I don't see it having anything to do with Afrezza. It's whatever Regeneron and Sanofi were cooking up.
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Post by _neil on Apr 26, 2015 16:38:17 GMT -5
davinci.. This discussion is pointless as to what value there is to inhalation for migraine headaches or asthma. Fact is MNKD has nothing of that sort now. Unless you are valuing the company on potential applications for Technosphere, we have to go by the reality that MNKD is all Afrezza- swim or sink. I hate the share price, I hate the management's tight lipped attitude and I hate the insider selling but I am unable to walk away since Afrezza's PK and simple math (5% capture of American T1s before the year ends) tell me that I should hang on and also cos I can't clearly identify what my exit price for a stop loss is. Maybe I am destined to be poorneil |
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Post by _neil on Apr 21, 2015 12:34:37 GMT -5
I read the same theories too. Even though I'm frustrated with the stock rightn now, I can't bring myself to question Al's integrity.
Maybe it's time I start adopting the 'guilty until proven innocent' policy when it comes to this management- without exceptions
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Post by _neil on Apr 20, 2015 15:55:26 GMT -5
I have no doubt about the science for Afrezza's effectiveness for Insulin delivery. I am questioning my own assumption that Technosphere has potential applications outside Afrezza and more importatntly feel that the enthusiasm in the general market is way below my expectations. I was assuming a 5% penetration in the potential market for a year but that seems like too high a target going by how little even the diabetics I know are informed about the product and by the relentless insider selling.
I am grown up enough to recognize that all this is 'whining' since that's all I can do cos I can't stomach the loss as of now.
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Post by _neil on Apr 20, 2015 12:53:02 GMT -5
I am starting to question the science too on this. Maybe the 'embarassment of riches' was a completely deluded, false statement. I don't know enough about the science at the molecular level but maybe technosphere is only good for insulin and nothing else. I believe Afrezza is make or break and the management has nothing up its sleeve. I thought they would have enough customers to support their valuation at a reasonable multiple to sales but now I am quite sure my theory is wrong. Al Mann doesn't care about returns and the current management is all too happy to gorge while they still can. My DD indicated a conservative $3B valuation but that assumed the management has the ability and motivation to make the company succeed. I no longer think that's true.
I have zero hopes of closing my position in the green now. My only indecision is about what loss I will forgive myself. This board has been helpful source of info for me in the past but with the lack of any concrete information from the company, it's starting to become a cheerleading squad.
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Post by _neil on Apr 10, 2015 16:04:49 GMT -5
I'm voting Against every one of the directors and whatever their compensation is. Too poor to do anything else to voice my dissent at this point.
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Post by _neil on Mar 4, 2015 1:53:08 GMT -5
This downgrade broke my back. I am already underwater given my average purchase price but this sets me back quite a bit. I am out of this PoS as soon as I can muster the stomach for taking a reasonable loss.
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Post by _neil on Feb 15, 2015 21:08:12 GMT -5
Seems a lot like wishful thinking. My bet is that this is Regeneron related. It's too early for SNY to be jumping in for the kill. I am, however, a pessimist who would love to be proven wrong.
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Post by _neil on Feb 12, 2015 12:51:20 GMT -5
Aaaaaand we are back on earth again. I am perfectly happy to see the management say 'embarrassment of riches' when it comes to Technosphere applications and not get into any details. This will mean the longs can properly value the company for what it is and maybe backup the truck while the shorts give us a nice discount. The company can focus on the cartridge sizing, production scaling etc. without distractions and we will see the value shine in a couple quarters.
I know people have been on this ride way longer than I have but given my poor prior investing decisions and given that I have decades to go for retirement, I am buckled in for a decent cruise up rather than a liftoff.
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