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Post by _neil on Aug 28, 2015 16:11:56 GMT -5
LFD's bias is clear as day. But one question he raised still lingers with me. Assuming the launch was deliberately slow and went as expected, what is the explanation for the petering out of the refill rate in prescriptions? One other thing I didn't know earlier was the 25% drop off in the test subjects in the initial study (I'll assume this is a made up/misinterpreted number since it's LFD's claim but). Is there an official explanation for this?
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Post by _neil on Aug 27, 2015 17:06:28 GMT -5
We are literally grasping at straws at this point for any good news, aren't we?
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Post by _neil on Aug 25, 2015 9:43:22 GMT -5
Tipping point for sales of A will be once at least 20% of the leading medical practitioners have been informed/convinced that Afrezza is the real deal and at least 50% of the insurers cover the drug. Until then, nothing else will really matter. The tipping point for the stock? I don't think anyone can predict that.China is as much a factor as is Sanofi at this point.
I got into MNKD considering it a technology company. In tech, we are required to think about platforms and not products and the inhaler looked like a platform. This being my first foray into biotech, I did some very conservative math about how easy it is to scale and how 'undervalued' it was compared to peers with no substitute solution. I think the management and stock holders like myself have been too smug about having superior product on their hands and assuming the better mousetrap will make people beat a path to us. I am hoping what we are dealing with is not a world leading tech company/alliance with no chops in sales.In other words, I hope MNKD will prove that it's not another Xerox that invented the 21st century but sold nothing worthwhile.
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Post by _neil on Aug 24, 2015 23:25:03 GMT -5
There should be another option in that voting- 'I wish I could'. I cannot lend my shares since I have less than the minimum amount in my portfolio to qualify for lending shares. I don't think there's anything wrong in longs lending out and earning interest while the sales grow at a snail's pace. I wish the management didn't make such a pathetic request to stop lending shares and should've focused solely on what they're doing in terms of progress but them's the breaks.
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Post by _neil on Aug 13, 2015 11:38:08 GMT -5
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Post by _neil on Aug 7, 2015 13:30:30 GMT -5
patryn.. I agree. I've pushing out the 1B sales target year further and further each passing day. You've also identified the factors where MNKD is weak. Cashflow is in short supply and so will perseverance once Al steps down.  |
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Post by _neil on Aug 7, 2015 13:26:16 GMT -5
I don't think Afrezza fits well into this graph. The scale is a bit hard to accurately get to but all of these drugs seem to have done at least ~10s of millions in their first year? If so, it doesn't really bode well.
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Post by _neil on Aug 5, 2015 14:31:07 GMT -5
lmj- I am an unfortunate long but I can't bring myself to actually sell my holding. I think the market is right in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding Sanofi's commitment, MNKD management's vision & execution and above all, the demand that simply doesn't seem to exist.
I have lost >40% of my original investment but at this point, my 'edge' is that I have time. The science is solid and if I were diabetic, I can't think of a reason why I won't pick up an inhaler instead of a needle. The other reason is that even as a niche drug, if the company were to be valued at the industry's average multiple, I seem to land around the 8$ PPS (25% of US T1 population switching to Afrezza, 25% of revenue going to MNKD and a 15 multiple to revenue). Since I cannot time the market, I will ride it out and hopefully learn a very expensive lesson or have my faith in myself and safe financial modeling restored.
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Post by _neil on Jul 31, 2015 17:58:21 GMT -5
At this point, I don't believe anyone in the market or even the insiders at MNKD are concerned about production. The demand is far shorter than the existing capacity even without the added two lines. In general, I believe we should prepare for success but saturating line 1's capability seems like a pipe dream for this year at the rate we are making progress.
On point, this whole note conversion deal seems more and more like something the lenders arm twisted Matt into constructing. It's complexity is one indication and the seemingly open invitation for short players to further line their pockets another. Sigh! I hope there is light at the end of this tunnel.
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Post by _neil on Jul 30, 2015 13:57:33 GMT -5
In my unsophisticated opinion, this is the best deal Al & co could get. All the complexity in every thing they do shows they are scrambling to make it the next mile. Given the scrip count and the sloths-on-ambien pace of MNKD/SNY rollout, there simply is zero leverage in Mannkind's hands. I have readjusted my projections downwards a few times with MNKD and I'll do so again.
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Post by _neil on Jul 9, 2015 12:09:37 GMT -5
SNY is not the one to blame completely since the team that markets Afrezza is 50:50 MNKD:SNY. I am worknig under the assumption that all the decisions are by consensus. If MNKD members on that board do not sound the alarm bells about the interest level from their SNY counterparts, they are completely unfit to shoulder Afrezza and we fully deserve our losses. I think it might be far fetched to assume SNY will back out next year but given what we have seen so far, this cannot be ruled out. My only hope from MNKD now is that they will plan their finances accordingly and shop around given they have 5 more months in the year before the unthinkable happens. If they do dilute the stock after all the assurances, we will know for a fact that we are dealing with a bunch of amateurs who lucked out by having a great product thrown into their lap. I surely hope this isn't the case.
We have given SNY enough benefit of doubt and IMO, there won't be any appreciable sales for this year. I have already readjusted my holding period to end of 2017. Aside from these wrinkles, I think even as a niche T1 product, MNKD deserves more than 2.5B valuation.
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Post by _neil on Jul 9, 2015 11:51:47 GMT -5
Harry gets the first "gift basket" from me once MNKD hits $30! Your a stud Harry! That should be.. "Y'er a wizard 'arry!" |
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Post by _neil on Jul 2, 2015 15:17:34 GMT -5
India is a market where insurance coverage for drugs is non-existant. Even though the target population of diabetics is huge, they'll have a hard time converting any of that demand into actual sales due to the high cost of Afrezza. I think Sanofi will target the first world markets that can afford Afrezza before they go market it in India/China at discounted rates.
Unless of course Sanofi pivots to a volume first, margins next approach which I doubt.
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Post by _neil on Jul 1, 2015 10:29:13 GMT -5
It makes me nervous to call any of this activity 'criminal'. This issue does deserve broader attention to change how naked short selling and FTD works but all of the FUD by AF and his friends is completely legal. It's not necessarily right but I really don't see anything wrong with them airing opinions based on their (mis)understanding or with an obvious agenda. That's the whole thing about an open market. People are free to say whatever even if it is technically a lie. As long as the truth to counter them is publicly available, that's where the matter ends. If investors heed to his advice, they are doing so with their own money and deserve their gains or losses. I disagree with the garbage that he puts out but when compares Afrezza with Exubera or says the sales fall short, it's all under the broad umbrella of his opinion. There is no recourse available to long investors and it's a dangerous can of worms to open to try and counter his opinions with anything other than the 'true' version of events. There are places like this board, the Yahoo Board, Seeking Alpha etc where the info battle is being played out and it is, IMHO more than sufficient.
Althought the thought of taking AF down brings me joy, I consider this effort misguided. All anyone can do if they are long is hold and wait.
tmann..I do appreciate what you are trying to do though
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Post by _neil on Jun 30, 2015 19:45:30 GMT -5
Sweet find. What do you guys think of this slogan for Afrezza? " Breathe. Easy. "
Sorry if someone else already thought of this.
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