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Post by mannmade on Nov 1, 2018 15:25:34 GMT -5
Here’s my two cents from the back of my napkin regarding 2019 revenue:
1. Afrezza Net Revenue: $17m in 2018 so let’s double to $35m in 2019
2. Brazil $5m for the year
3. $25m in Uthr milestones on Trep T
So far that is $65m in what is basic company revenue on the conservative side.
Add one more molecule for $30m which mike seems confident of and mnkd is at $95m which is almost break even based on past years monthly/annual expenses and pending new allocations and additional expenses such as dtc for Afrezza and new sales positions.
If warrants kick in which they could... that is another $30m or so (with dilution)
This gets mnkd to $125m
DF is due $11.5m in May and July and that eliminates there debt and presumably the liens they hold on all of mnkd assets freeing them up for a more favorable loan if needed.
Btw, mnkd ends 2018 w $20m so really could have as much as $145m for 2019. RLS? Not sure about any other possible revenue for 2019 but feel free to comment. GLTAL’s!!!
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Post by mannmade on Oct 31, 2018 12:31:12 GMT -5
It’s the MannKind connection... just kidding!!!😂😂😂. Happy Halloween and GLTAL’s!!!
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Post by mannmade on Oct 31, 2018 11:02:58 GMT -5
I just re-listened to the question from Goldman (starts at roughly the 32:00 mark). Rothblatt said: "... during the past quarter, we acquired the exclusive rights to a very exciting product for idiopathic fibrosis which is not associated with PAH."
However, in that answer he also mentions the Samumed deal which would indicate that he was not talking about Samumed initially. So there is a possibility that he is initially talking about a MNKD approach towards IPF with a new version of tobramycin. Remember that tobramycin resides in Box 1 of Mike's pipeline matrix. The fact that Martine mentions this in response to what they are doing outside the scope of PAH correlates well with the description of the $10 million funding in the 10Q: "We also entered into a research agreement for the conduct of research by MannKind for products outside the scope of the licensing and collaboration agreement. MannKind received an initial payment of $10.0 million in consideration for its performance under the research agreement. The $10.0 million payment is included within research and development costs on our consolidated statements of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2018."Q - Unidentified Analyst Is there any preferences with regard to collaboration vis-à-vis additional products as you get rather in license and partner with for specific areas you are focusing. Michael Castagna Yes, there's two areas in particular. So one is lung diseases I’ll say cystic fibrosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis are two ideal ones I look at. In particular if you look at Tobramycin, there is [indiscernible] from Novartis. We think that's a great opportunity in that market to deliver something more effective to the lungs. www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4209479-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-cantor-fitzgerald-global-healthcare-conferenceIt would be amazing and a bit ironic if mnkd partnered w Novartis for a tsmolecule. Not wanting to speculate but why would Mike mention Novartis unless there is potential for this? Hmmm...
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Post by mannmade on Oct 27, 2018 10:21:33 GMT -5
I believe Garrett Ingram is Chief Marketing Officer. Mike was Chief Commercial Officer as I recall. 😊
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Post by mannmade on Oct 26, 2018 17:14:23 GMT -5
Oddly I believe Anders Boss was the senior medical officer at Sanofi working directly on Afrezza during the Sanofi partnership.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 26, 2018 12:33:25 GMT -5
As I recall this was the subject of the Torrey Pines partnership from several years ago. Specifically a non addictive pain killer that could be taken liberally with no side effects nor addiction issues. For some reason it has faded from the conversation.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 22, 2018 7:06:07 GMT -5
It was mentioned last week by someone on ST as I recall. If not this Tuesday it should be soon and same post applies. My apologies if I have date wrong.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 21, 2018 15:16:19 GMT -5
While I am not anywhere an expert in this field I believe Mike has said patents are still good for quite some time (am speaking about TS and inhaler not afrezza) also as I recall they have been updating patent regularly. And lastly I recall hearing someone senior at mnkd say the process is so complex it would be hard to duplicate so they were not worried about generics.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 20, 2018 18:29:41 GMT -5
Mike C has said in the past that he would rather let UTHR speak to some of the details about the deal between MNKD and UTHR. The UTHR Earnings Call is this coming Tuesday.
So does anyone think we might get some answers to the following questions which if positive could provide an impetus for the MNKD stock to move up, especially given Peppy's positive chart informtion? I am not saying it will or won't. But am curious if anyone has thoughts one way or the other...
1. When they expect to complete Phase 3 trials 2. When they expect to begin marketing the drug 3. Projected revenue and market penatration 4. MNKD's royalty %
The answers to the above could give analysts/investors a way to start timing and factoring in forward earnings and perhaps move the stock a bit. GLTAL's!!!
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Post by mannmade on Oct 20, 2018 12:44:40 GMT -5
Mnkd should sue them for business defamation. This article is full of outright misinformation and false statements.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 17, 2018 10:22:02 GMT -5
Likely at time he had not heard much from them. But things can change overnight. And oddly enough after he mentioned them on his last cc after a long silence on the subject they raised $7.5m. So you can make your own opinion as to what this means. Imo I think they are a viable partner for Mannkind/TS.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 16, 2018 16:42:50 GMT -5
In addition to above re remaining DF Debt, that leaves $90m or so of Debt with the Mann Foundation if I remember correctly as the only real remaining Debt, other than on-going expenses such as Amphistar. Now who really thinks they won’t convert at $4 pps in 2021? Which means mnkd is virtually Debt free once DF is paid off. We do have milestone obligations etc but they are not collecting interest and do not have a date certain to be paid as they are conditional on reaching revenue goals.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 16, 2018 12:59:52 GMT -5
Don’t forget that MC made a point to mention a possible molecule partnership with Novartis in his last cc as well. Would be huge if they did a second or third molecule partnership outside of UTHR with a big pharmaceutical like Novartis. Am not saying they will but no reason for MC to mention if not thinking of it or perhaps in very early discussions.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 16, 2018 12:05:10 GMT -5
Yes $3m with $12m left in Debt plus mile stone payments for revenue growth. And MC has said no more dilution to pay debt as I understand.
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Post by mannmade on Oct 15, 2018 16:46:36 GMT -5
Well you can always go to their location in Beverly Hills that is at a doctors office.
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